MEDIA FOR CHANGE NETWORK
How food and water are driving a 21st-century African land grab
Published
4 years agoon
A woman tends vegetables at a giant Saudi-financed farm in Ethiopia.
An Observer investigation reveals how rich countries faced by a global food shortage now farm an area double the size of the UK to guarantee supplies for their citizens.
We turned off the main road to Awassa, talked our way past security guards and drove a mile across empty land before we found what will soon be Ethiopia’s largest greenhouse. Nestling below an escarpment of the Rift Valley, the development is far from finished, but the plastic and steel structure already stretches over 20 hectares – the size of 20 football pitches.
The farm manager shows us millions of tomatoes, peppers and other vegetables being grown in 500m rows in computer controlled conditions. Spanish engineers are building the steel structure, Dutch technology minimises water use from two bore-holes and 1,000 women pick and pack 50 tonnes of food a day. Within 24 hours, it has been driven 200 miles to Addis Ababa and flown 1,000 miles to the shops and restaurants of Dubai, Jeddah and elsewhere in the Middle East.
Ethiopia is one of the hungriest countries in the world with 2.8 million people needing food aid, but paradoxically the government is offering at least 3m hectares of its most fertile land to rich countries and some of the world’s most wealthy individuals to export food for their own populations.
The 1,000 hectares of land which contain the Awassa greenhouses are leased for 99 years to a Saudi billionaire businessman, Ethiopian-born Sheikh Mohammed al-Amoudi, one of the 50 richest men in the world. His Saudi Star company plans to spend up to $2bn acquiring and developing 500,000 hectares of land in Ethiopia in the next few years. So far, it has bought four farms and is already growing wheat, rice, vegetables and flowers for the Saudi market. It expects eventually to employ more than 10,000 people.
But Ethiopia is only one of 20 or more African countries where land is being bought or leased for intensive agriculture on an immense scale in what may be the greatest change of ownership since the colonial era.
An Observer investigation estimates that up to 50m hectares of land – an area more than double the size of the UK – has been acquired in the last few years or is in the process of being negotiated by governments and wealthy investors working with state subsidies. The data used was collected by Grain, the International Institute for Environment and Development, the International Land Coalition, ActionAid and other non-governmental groups.
The land rush, which is still accelerating, has been triggered by the worldwide food shortages which followed the sharp oil price rises in 2008, growing water shortages and the European Union’s insistence that 10% of all transport fuel must come from plant-based biofuels by 2015.
In many areas the deals have led to evictions, civil unrest and complaints of “land grabbing”.
The experience of Nyikaw Ochalla, an indigenous Anuak from the Gambella region of Ethiopia now living in Britain but who is in regular contact with farmers in his region, is typical. He said: “All of the land in the Gambella region is utilised. Each community has and looks after its own territory and the rivers and farmlands within it. It is a myth propagated by the government and investors to say that there is waste land or land that is not utilised in Gambella.
“The foreign companies are arriving in large numbers, depriving people of land they have used for centuries. There is no consultation with the indigenous population. The deals are done secretly. The only thing the local people see is people coming with lots of tractors to invade their lands.
“All the land round my family village of Illia has been taken over and is being cleared. People now have to work for an Indian company. Their land has been compulsorily taken and they have been given no compensation. People cannot believe what is happening. Thousands of people will be affected and people will go hungry.”
It is not known if the acquisitions will improve or worsen food security in Africa, or if they will stimulate separatist conflicts, but a major World Bank report due to be published this month is expected to warn of both the potential benefits and the immense dangers they represent to people and nature.
Leading the rush are international agribusinesses, investment banks, hedge funds, commodity traders, sovereign wealth funds as well as UK pension funds, foundations and individuals attracted by some of the world’s cheapest land.
Together they are scouring Sudan, Kenya, Nigeria, Tanzania, Malawi, Ethiopia, Congo, Zambia, Uganda, Madagascar, Zimbabwe, Mali, Sierra Leone, Ghana and elsewhere. Ethiopia alone has approved 815 foreign-financed agricultural projects since 2007. Any land there, which investors have not been able to buy, is being leased for approximately $1 per year per hectare.
Saudi Arabia, along with other Middle Eastern emirate states such as Qatar, Kuwait and Abu Dhabi, is thought to be the biggest buyer. In 2008 the Saudi government, which was one of the Middle East’s largest wheat-growers, announced it was to reduce its domestic cereal production by 12% a year to conserve its water. It earmarked $5bn to provide loans at preferential rates to Saudi companies which wanted to invest in countries with strong agricultural potential .
Meanwhile, the Saudi investment company Foras, backed by the Islamic Development Bank and wealthy Saudi investors, plans to spend $1bn buying land and growing 7m tonnes of rice for the Saudi market within seven years. The company says it is investigating buying land in Mali, Senegal, Sudan and Uganda. By turning to Africa to grow its staple crops, Saudi Arabia is not just acquiring Africa’s land but is securing itself the equivalent of hundreds of millions of gallons of scarce water a year. Water, says the UN, will be the defining resource of the next 100 years.
Since 2008 Saudi investors have bought heavily in Sudan, Egypt, Ethiopia and Kenya. Last year the first sacks of wheat grown in Ethiopia for the Saudi market were presented by al-Amoudi to King Abdullah.
Some of the African deals lined up are eye-wateringly large: China has signed a contract with the Democratic Republic of Congo to grow 2.8m hectares of palm oil for biofuels. Before it fell apart after riots, a proposed 1.2m hectares deal between Madagascar and the South Korean company Daewoo would have included nearly half of the country’s arable land.
Land to grow biofuel crops is also in demand. “European biofuel companies have acquired or requested about 3.9m hectares in Africa. This has led to displacement of people, lack of consultation and compensation, broken promises about wages and job opportunities,” said Tim Rice, author of an ActionAid report which estimates that the EU needs to grow crops on 17.5m hectares, well over half the size of Italy, if it is to meet its 10% biofuel target by 2015.
“The biofuel land grab in Africa is already displacing farmers and food production. The number of people going hungry will increase,” he said. British firms have secured tracts of land in Angola, Ethiopia, Mozambique, Nigeria and Tanzania to grow flowers and vegetables.
Indian companies, backed by government loans, have bought or leased hundreds of thousands of hectares in Ethiopia, Kenya, Madagascar, Senegal and Mozambique, where they are growing rice, sugar cane, maize and lentils to feed their domestic market.
Nowhere is now out of bounds. Sudan, emerging from civil war and mostly bereft of development for a generation, is one of the new hot spots. South Korean companies last year bought 700,000 hectares of northern Sudan for wheat cultivation; the United Arab Emirates have acquired 750,000 hectares and Saudi Arabia last month concluded a 42,000-hectare deal in Nile province.
The government of southern Sudan says many companies are now trying to acquire land. “We have had many requests from many developers. Negotiations are going on,” said Peter Chooli, director of water resources and irrigation, in Juba last week. “A Danish group is in discussions with the state and another wants to use land near the Nile.”
In one of the most extraordinary deals, buccaneering New York investment firm Jarch Capital, run by a former commodities trader, Philip Heilberg, has leased 800,000 hectares in southern Sudan near Darfur. Heilberg has promised not only to create jobs but also to put 10% or more of his profits back into the local community. But he has been accused by Sudanese of “grabbing” communal land and leading an American attempt to fragment Sudan and exploit its resources.
Devlin Kuyek, a Montreal-based researcher with Grain, said investing in Africa was now seen as a new food supply strategy by many governments. “Rich countries are eyeing Africa not just for a healthy return on capital, but also as an insurance policy. Food shortages and riots in 28 countries in 2008, declining water supplies, climate change and huge population growth have together made land attractive. Africa has the most land and, compared with other continents, is cheap,” he said.
“Farmland in sub-Saharan Africa is giving 25% returns a year and new technology can treble crop yields in short time frames,” said Susan Payne, chief executive of Emergent Asset Management, a UK investment fund seeking to spend $50m on African land, which, she said, was attracting governments, corporations, multinationals and other investors. “Agricultural development is not only sustainable, it is our future. If we do not pay great care and attention now to increase food production by over 50% before 2050, we will face serious food shortages globally,” she said.
But many of the deals are widely condemned by both western non-government groups and nationals as “new colonialism”, driving people off the land and taking scarce resources away from people.
We met Tegenu Morku, a land agent, in a roadside cafe on his way to the region of Oromia in Ethiopia to find 500 hectares of land for a group of Egyptian investors. They planned to fatten cattle, grow cereals and spices and export as much as possible to Egypt. There had to be water available and he expected the price to be about 15 birr (75p) per hectare per year – less than a quarter of the cost of land in Egypt and a tenth of the price of land in Asia.
“The land and labour is cheap and the climate is good here. Everyone – Saudis, Turks, Chinese, Egyptians – is looking. The farmers do not like it because they get displaced, but they can find land elsewhere and, besides, they get compensation, equivalent to about 10 years’ crop yield,” he said.
Oromia is one of the centres of the African land rush. Haile Hirpa, president of the Oromia studies’ association, said last week in a letter of protest to UN secretary-general Ban Ki-moon that India had acquired 1m hectares, Djibouti 10,000 hectares, Saudi Arabia 100,000 hectares, and that Egyptian, South Korean, Chinese, Nigerian and other Arab investors were all active in the state.
“This is the new, 21st-century colonisation. The Saudis are enjoying the rice harvest, while the Oromos are dying from man-made famine as we speak,” he said.
The Ethiopian government denied the deals were causing hunger and said that the land deals were attracting hundreds of millions of dollars of foreign investments and tens of thousands of jobs. A spokesman said: “Ethiopia has 74m hectares of fertile land, of which only 15% is currently in use – mainly by subsistence farmers. Of the remaining land, only a small percentage – 3 to 4% – is offered to foreign investors. Investors are never given land that belongs to Ethiopian farmers. The government also encourages Ethiopians in the diaspora to invest in their homeland. They bring badly needed technology, they offer jobs and training to Ethiopians, they operate in areas where there is suitable land and access to water.”
The reality on the ground is different, according to Michael Taylor, a policy specialist at the International Land Coalition. “If land in Africa hasn’t been planted, it’s probably for a reason. Maybe it’s used to graze livestock or deliberately left fallow to prevent nutrient depletion and erosion. Anybody who has seen these areas identified as unused understands that there is no land in Ethiopia that has no owners and users.”
Development experts are divided on the benefits of large-scale, intensive farming. Indian ecologist Vandana Shiva said in London last week that large-scale industrial agriculture not only threw people off the land but also required chemicals, pesticides, herbicides, fertilisers, intensive water use, and large-scale transport, storage and distribution which together turned landscapes into enormous mono-cultural plantations.
“We are seeing dispossession on a massive scale. It means less food is available and local people will have less. There will be more conflict and political instability and cultures will be uprooted. The small farmers of Africa are the basis of food security. The food availability of the planet will decline,” she says. But Rodney Cooke, director at the UN’s International Fund for Agricultural Development, sees potential benefits. “I would avoid the blanket term ‘land-grabbing’. Done the right way, these deals can bring benefits for all parties and be a tool for development.”
Lorenzo Cotula, senior researcher with the International Institute for Environment and Development, who co-authored a report on African land exchanges with the UN fund last year, found that well-structured deals could guarantee employment, better infrastructures and better crop yields. But badly handled they could cause great harm, especially if local people were excluded from decisions about allocating land and if their land rights were not protected.
Water is also controversial. Local government officers in Ethiopia told the Observer that foreign companies that set up flower farms and other large intensive farms were not being charged for water. “We would like to, but the deal is made by central government,” said one. In Awassa, the al-Amouni farm uses as much water a year as 100,000 Ethiopians.
• This article was amended on 22 March 2011. Owing to an editing error the original said that more than 13 million people in Ethiopia need food aid. This has been corrected.
Original Post: The Guardian
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COP16 in Riyadh: World Leaders Commit $12.15B to Combat Land Degradation and Drought
Published
5 days agoon
December 17, 2024The 16th Conference of the Parties (COP16) to the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) has concluded in Riyadh, marking the largest and most inclusive conference in the organization’s history.
With over 20,000 participants, including global leaders, scientists, private sector representatives, and civil society groups, the conference laid out bold strategies to address land degradation, drought, and desertification.
The highlight of the conference was the announcement of the Riyadh Global Drought Resilience Partnership, which secured $12.15 billion in pledges to support drought-affected regions in 80 vulnerable countries, including Uganda.
This funding aims to strengthen food security, promote sustainable land management, and protect ecosystems from the growing impacts of climate change.
For Uganda, where over 40% of the population relies on agriculture, this commitment offers hope for combating the devastating effects of prolonged droughts in the cattle corridor and other semi-arid regions.
In a move to enhance global preparedness for droughts, COP16 launched an AI-powered Drought Observatory, a groundbreaking tool designed to provide real-time data and predictive analysis.
Uganda, with its ongoing challenges in monitoring and responding to climate impacts, stands to benefit immensely from this technology, which will enable the government to anticipate and respond effectively to severe drought conditions.
This could mitigate the recurring food insecurity and water scarcity issues faced by communities in Karamoja and other drought-prone areas.
H.E. Abdulrahman Abdulmohsen AlFadley, COP16 President, in his closing remarks, stated:
“This session marks a turning point in raising awareness and strengthening efforts to restore land and build resilience. The Riyadh Declaration sends a clear message: the time for decisive action is now.”
For Uganda, this turning point is critical as the country battles desertification in key ecosystems like the cattle corridor and Lake Kyoga basin, which threaten biodiversity, agriculture, and livelihoods.
With only 6% of land restoration funding currently coming from private sources, COP16 introduced the Business for Land initiative to increase private sector engagement in land restoration.
Over 400 companies participated in discussions on sustainable finance, environmental, social, and governance (ESG) practices, and strategies to mobilize private investment for land restoration projects.
Uganda, which has already seen successful private-sector participation in conservation projects such as carbon trading and reforestation in areas like Mabira Forest, could tap into this global momentum to attract more investments for land restoration initiatives.
To promote inclusivity, COP16 placed women and youth at the forefront of the fight against land degradation. Key outcomes included:
The launch of youth-led initiatives to drive grassroots climate action.
Adoption of gender-responsive policies to ensure equitable participation in land restoration efforts.
For Uganda, these measures are especially relevant.
The country has a youthful population and strong women-led grassroots organizations that are already leading efforts to promote climate resilience through tree planting and sustainable farming practices.
The resolutions adopted at COP16 provide a framework for scaling up these local efforts while ensuring inclusivity and equitable representation.
Scientific data presented at COP16 painted a dire picture of the planet’s land resources:
77.6% of Earth’s land is drier today than it was 30 years ago.
40.6% of the planet is now classified as drylands, threatening ecosystems, food security, and livelihoods.
For Uganda, this data underscores the urgent need for action.
With parts of the country already facing desertification and reduced rainfall patterns, the findings highlight the importance of restoring degraded lands like Nakasongola and tackling deforestation in critical areas such as Mount Elgon.
As COP16 wraps up, attention now shifts to COP17, which will take place in Mongolia.
Delegates will continue discussions on establishing a global drought regime, building on the momentum and progress achieved in Riyadh.
For Uganda, the outcomes of COP16 represent a pivotal moment.
The historic commitments, technological innovations, and inclusive policies offer the country an opportunity to address its growing environmental challenges.
If implemented effectively, these resolutions could help Uganda restore its degraded lands, safeguard livelihoods, and build resilience against future climate shocks, positioning the country as a leader in sustainable land management in Africa.
Source: nilepost.co.ug
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Church of Uganda’s call to end land grabbing is timely and re-enforces earlier calls to investigate quack investors and their agents fueling the problem.
Published
1 week agoon
December 13, 2024By Witness Radio team.
The Church of Uganda has called for the government to intervene immediately to address the escalating issue of land grabbing in Uganda.
The Archbishop of the Church of Uganda, Rt, made the urgent appeal. Rev. Steven Kazimba Mugalu, during an event in Wamala Village, Nansana Municipality, Wakiso District, on Saturday, December 7. He urged the government to take responsibility for protecting its citizens’ rights, particularly the right to own and occupy land, by strengthening laws and regulations governing land ownership and use.
The Archbishop noted that local communities are being forcibly removed from their land without receiving compensation or alternative sources of income. In many cases, Ugandan communities face eviction or compulsory land acquisition under the guise of developmental projects, leaving many marginalized.
Bwowe Ismael’s case is an example. He is a father of 20 and a person with a disability (PWD) living in Bethlehem in the Kyotera district. In an interview with Witness Radio, he revealed that his land was forcefully taken when he demanded fair compensation for it, which is affected by the East African crude oil pipeline project (EACOP). He shared that the State authorities intimidated, arrested, and charged him with false offenses, such as aggravated robbery, accusing him of sabotaging the government project.
“This is a loss for the entire nation, not just the impacted individuals and families,” the Archbishop said. He added,” We implore the government to set up an open and transparent procedure for acquiring land and to guarantee that all people and communities impacted by land grabbing receive just compensation.”
The Church of Uganda’s call for government intervention on land grabbing comes less than a month after Witness Radio released a shocking report on land evictions in Uganda. The report revealed that nearly four land evictions are reported weekly, affecting approximately 15,126 people and threatening 5,060.12 hectares of land nationwide. It further estimated that 2,160 Ugandans face evictions daily to make way for investments, with 723 hectares of land at risk of being seized daily.
The Witness Radio report “Forced Land Evictions in Uganda” covered 90 land eviction cases over six months from January to June 2024, affecting at least 363,021 Ugandans and putting over 121,000 hectares of land at risk of land grabs.
Evictions have not only disrupted people’s lives but have also contributed to increased food insecurity in Uganda, violence, and, in many cases, death and the criminalization of those who resist or face eviction. According to the report, corporate entities such as Agilis Partners Ltd, Great Seasons Ltd, East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP), New Forest Company (NFC), and Formosa Ltd, along with the impunity of government officials, wealthy individuals, multinational corporations, and influential figures, including Army Generals, are the leading perpetrators.
The report further highlighted that local and foreign investors were involved in 67 cases, government agencies in 12, and tribal and family land conflicts in 11 cases.
Poor people are often the primary targets and most affected by land grabbing as those behind these evictions hold significant power. During the same period, Witness Radio documented 65 attacks on land and environmental defenders (LEDs) and climate activists who were challenging illegal land evictions and corporate environmental harm in Uganda. Most (37) evictions were enforced by armed gangs on behalf of evictors, with 25 cases by Uganda police. In contrast, 5 cases involved the participation of some soldiers of the Uganda Army, whereas 4 cases involved private security companies.
Kazimba’s call for government intervention echoes Witness Radio’s report, which also emphasized the urgent need for government action to address the land-grabbing crisis, respect human rights, uphold the rule of law, ensure compliance with directives on land evictions issued by relevant authorities, and closely monitor their implementation.
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Three-quarters of Earth’s land became permanently drier in last three decades: UN
Published
2 weeks agoon
December 9, 2024-
Aridity: The ‘existential crisis’ redefining life on Earth
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Five billion people could be affected by 2100
Riyadh, Saudi Arabia – Even as dramatic water-related disasters such as floods and storms intensified in some parts of the world, more than three-quarters of Earth’s land became permanently drier in recent decades, UN scientists warned today in a stark new analysis.
Some 77.6% of Earth’s land experienced drier conditions during the three decades leading up to 2020 compared to the previous 30-year period, according to the landmark report from the UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD).
Over the same period, drylands expanded by about 4.3 million km2 – an area nearly a third larger than India, the world’s 7th largest country – and now cover 40.6% of all land on Earth (excluding Antarctica).
In recent decades some 7.6% of global lands – an area larger than Canada – were pushed across aridity thresholds (i.e. from non-drylands to drylands, or from less arid dryland classes to more arid classes).
Most of these areas have transitioned from humid landscapes to drylands, with dire implications for agriculture, ecosystems, and the people living there.
And the research warns that, if the world fails to curb greenhouse gas emissions, another 3% of the world’s humid areas will become drylands by the end of this century.
In high greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, expanding drylands are forecast across the Midwestern United States, central Mexico, northern Venezuela, north-eastern Brazil, south-eastern Argentina, the entire Mediterranean Region, the Black Sea coast, large parts of southern Africa, and southern Australia.
The report, The Global Threat of Drying Lands: Regional and global aridity trends and future projections, was launched at the 16th conference of UNCCD’s nearly 200 Parties in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia (COP16), the largest UN land conference to date, and the first UNCCD COP to be held in the Middle East, a region profoundly affected by impacts from aridity.
“This analysis finally dispels an uncertainty that has long surrounded global drying trends,” says Ibrahim Thiaw, UNCCD Executive Secretary. “For the first time, the aridity crisis has been documented with scientific clarity, revealing an existential threat affecting billions around the globe.”
“Unlike droughts—temporary periods of low rainfall—aridity represents a permanent, unrelenting transformation,” he adds. “Droughts end. When an area’s climate becomes drier, however, the ability to return to previous conditions is lost. The drier climates now affecting vast lands across the globe will not return to how they were and this change is redefining life on Earth.”
The report by UNCCD Science-Policy Interface (SPI) — the UN body for assessing the science of land degradation and drought — points to human-caused climate change as the primary driver of this shift. Greenhouse gas emissions from electricity generation, transport, industry and land use changes warm the planet and other human activities warm the planet and affect rainfall, evaporation and plant life, creating the conditions that increase aridity.
Global aridity index (AI) data track these conditions and reveal widespread change over the decades.
Aridification hotspots
Areas particularly hard-hit by the drying trend include almost all of Europe (95.9% of its land), parts of the western United States, Brazil, parts of Asia (notably eastern Asia), and central Africa.
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Parts of the Western United States and Brazil: Significant drying trends, with water scarcity and wildfires becoming perennial hazards.
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Mediterranean and Southern Europe: Once considered agricultural breadbaskets, these areas face a stark future as semi-arid conditions expand.
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Central Africa and parts of Asia: Biologically megadiverse areas are experiencing ecosystem degradation and desertification, endangering countless species.
By contrast, less than a quarter of the planet’s land (22.4%) experienced wetter conditions, with areas in the central United States, Angola’s Atlantic coast, and parts of Southeast Asia showing some gains in moisture.
The overarching trend, however, is clear: drylands are expanding, pushing ecosystems and societies to suffer from aridity’s life-threatening impacts.
The report names South Sudan and Tanzania as nations with the largest percentage of land transitioning to drylands, and China as the country experiencing the largest total area shifting from non-drylands into drylands.
For the 2.3 billion people – well over 25% of the world’s population – living in the expanding drylands, this new normal requires lasting, adaptive solutions. Aridity-related land degradation, known as desertification, represents a dire threat to human well-being and ecological stability.
And as the planet continues to warm, report projections in the worst-case scenario suggest up to 5 billion people could live in drylands by the century’s end, grappling with depleted soils, dwindling water resources, and the diminishment or collapse of once-thriving ecosystems.
Forced migration is one of aridity’s most visible consequences. As land becomes uninhabitable, families and entire communities facing water scarcity and agricultural collapse often have no choice but to abandon their homes, leading to social and political challenges worldwide. From the Middle East to Africa and South Asia, millions are already on the move—a trend set to intensify in coming decades.
Aridity’s devastating impact
The effects of rising aridity are cascading and multifaceted, touching nearly every aspect of life and society, the report says.
It warns that one fifth of all land could experience abrupt ecosystem transformations from rising aridity by the end of the century, causing dramatic shifts (such as forests becoming grasslands and other changes) and leading to extinctions among many of the world’s plants, animals and other life.
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Aridity is considered the world’s largest single driver behind the degradation of agricultural systems, affecting 40% of Earth’s arable lands
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Rising aridity has been blamed for a 12% decline in gross domestic product (GDP) recorded for African countries between 1990–2015
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More than two thirds of all land on the planet (excluding Greenland and Antarctica) is projected to store less water by the end of the century, if greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise even modestly
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Aridity is considered one of the world’s five most important causes of land degradation (along with land erosion, salinization, organic carbon loss and vegetation degradation)
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Rising aridity in the Middle East has been linked to the region’s more frequent and larger sand and dust storms
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Increasing aridity is expected to play a role in larger and more intense wildfires in the climate-altered future—not least because of its impacts on tree deaths in semi-arid forests and the consequent growing availability of dry biomass for burning
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Rising aridity’s impacts on poverty, water scarcity, land degradation and insufficient food production have been linked to increasing rates of sickness and death globally —especially among children and women
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Rising aridity and drought play a key role in increasing human migration around the world—particularly in the hyper-arid and arid areas of southern Europe, the Middle East and North Africa and southern Asia.
Report marks a turning point
For years, documenting the rise of aridity proved a challenge, the report states. Its long-term nature and the intricate interplay of factors such as rainfall, evaporation, and plant transpiration made analysis difficult. Early studies produced conflicting results, often muddied by scientific caution.
The new report marks a turning point, leveraging advanced climate models and standardized methodologies to deliver a definitive assessment of global drying trends, confirming the inexorable rise of aridity, while providing critical insights into its underlying drivers and potential future trajectory.
Recommendations
The report offers a comprehensive roadmap for tackling aridity, emphasizing both mitigation and adaptation. Among its recommendations:
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Strengthen aridity monitoring
Integrate aridity metrics into existing drought monitoring systems. This approach would enable early detection of changes and help guide interventions before conditions worsen. Platforms like the new Aridity Visual Information Tool provide policymakers and researchers with valuable data, allowing for early warnings and timely interventions. Standardized assessments can enhance global cooperation and inform local adaptation strategies. -
Improve land use practices
Incentivizing sustainable land use systems can mitigate the impacts of rising aridity, particularly in vulnerable regions. Innovative, holistic, sustainable approaches to land management are the focus of another new UNCCD SPI report, Sustainable Land Use Systems: The path to collectively achieving Land Degradation Neutrality, available at https://bit.ly/3ZwkLZ3. It considers how land-use at one location affect others elsewhere, makes resilience to climate change or other shocks a priority, and encourages participation and buy-in by Indigenous and local communities as well as all levels of government. Projects like the Great Green Wall—a land restoration initiative spanning Africa—demonstrate the potential for large-scale, holistic efforts to combat aridity and restore ecosystems, while creating jobs and stabilizing economies. -
Invest in water efficiency
Technologies such as rainwater harvesting, drip irrigation, and wastewater recycling offer practical solutions for managing scarce water resources in dry regions. -
Build resilience in vulnerable communities
Local knowledge, capacity building, social justice and holistic thinking are vital to resilience. Sustainable land use systems encourage decision makers to apply responsible governance, protect human rights (including secure land access) and ensure accountability and transparency. Capacity-building programmes, financial support, education programmes, climate information services and community-driven initiatives empower those most affected by aridity to adapt to changing conditions. Farmers switching to drought-resistant crops or pastoralists adopting more arid-tolerant livestock exemplify incremental adaptation. -
Develop international frameworks and cooperation
The UNCCD’s Land Degradation Neutrality framework provides a model for aligning national policies with international goals, ensuring a unified response to the crisis. National Adaptation Plans must incorporate aridity alongside drought planning to create cohesive strategies that address water and land management challenges. Cross-sectoral collaboration at the global level, facilitated by frameworks like the UNCCD, is essential for scaling solutions.
Comments
“For decades, the world’s scientists have signalled that our growing greenhouse gas emissions are behind global warming. Now, for the first time, a UN scientific body is warning that burning fossil fuels is causing permanent drying across much of the world, too—with potentially catastrophic impacts affecting access to water that could push people and nature even closer to disastrous tipping points. As large tracts of the world’s land become more arid, the consequences of inaction grow increasingly dire and adaptation is no longer optional—it is imperative.” – UNCCD Chief Scientist Barron Orr
“Without concerted efforts, billions face a future marked by hunger, displacement, and economic decline. Yet, by embracing innovative solutions and fostering global solidarity, humanity can rise to meet this challenge. The question is not whether we have the tools to respond—it is whether we have the will to act.” – Nichole Barger, Chair, UNCCD Science-Policy Interface
“The report’s clarity is a wake-up call for policymakers: tackling aridity demands more than just science—it requires a diversity of perspectives and knowledge systems. By weaving Indigenous and local knowledge with cutting-edge data, we can craft stronger, smarter strategies to slow aridity’s advance, mitigate its impacts and thrive in a drying world.” – Sergio Vicente-Serrano, co-lead author of the report and an aridity expert with Spain’s Pyrenean Institute of Ecology
“This report underscores the critical need to address aridity as a defining global challenge of our time. By uniting diverse expertise and leveraging breakthrough technologies, we are not just measuring change—we are crafting a roadmap for resilience. Tackling aridity demands a collaborative vision that integrates innovation, adaptive solutions, and a commitment to securing a sustainable future for all.” – Narcisa Pricope, co-lead author, professor of geosciences and associate vice president for research at Mississippi State University, USA.
“The timeliness of this report cannot be overstated. Rising aridity will reshape the global landscape, challenging traditional ways of life and forcing societies to reimagine their relationship with land and water. As with climate change and biodiversity loss, addressing aridity requires coordinated international action and an unwavering commitment to sustainable development.” – Andrea Toreti, co-lead author and senior scientist, European Commission’s Joint Research Centre
By the Numbers:
Key global trends / projections
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77.6%: Proportion of Earth’s land that experienced drier climates from 1990–2020 compared to the previous 30 years.
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40.6%: Global land mass (excluding Antarctica) classified as drylands, up from 37.5% over the last 30 years.
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4.3 million km²: Humid lands transformed into drylands in the last three decades, an area one-third larger than India
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40%: Global arable land affected by aridity—the leading driver of agricultural degradation.
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30.9%: Global population living in drylands in 2020, up from 22.5% in 1990
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2.3 billion: People living in drylands in 2020, a doubling from 1990, projected to more than double again by 2100 under a worst-case climate change scenario.
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1.35 billion: Dryland inhabitants in Asia—more than half the global total.
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620 million: Dryland inhabitants in Africa—nearly half of the continent’s population.
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9.1%: Portion of Earth’s land classified as hyperarid, including the Atacama (Chile), Sahara (Africa), Namib (Africa), and Gobi (China/Mongolia) deserts.
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23%: Increase in global land at “moderate” to “very high” desertification risk by 2100 under the worst-case emissions scenario
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+8% at “very high” risk
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+5% at “high” risk
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+10% at “moderate” risk
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Environmental degradation
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5: Key drivers of land degradation: Rising aridity, land erosion, salinization, organic carbon loss, and vegetation degradation
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20%: Global land at risk of abrupt ecosystem transformations by 2100 due to rising aridity
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55%: Species (mammals, reptiles, fish, amphibians, and birds) at risk of habitat loss from aridity. Hotspots: (Arid regions): West Africa, Western Australia, Iberian Peninsula; (Humid regions): Southern Mexico, northern Amazon rainforest
Economics
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12%: African GDP decline attributed to aridity, 1990–2015
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16% / 6.7%: Projected GDP losses in Africa / Asia by 2079 under a moderate emissions scenario
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20M tons maize, 21M tons wheat, 19M tons rice: Expected losses in global crop yields by 2040 due to expanding aridity
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50%: Projected drop in maize yields in Kenya by 2050 under a high emissions scenario
Water
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90%: Rainfall in drylands that evaporates back into the atmosphere, leaving 10% for plant growth
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67%: Global land expected to store less water by 2100, even under moderate emission scenarios
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75%: Decline in water availability in the Middle East and North Africa since the 1950s
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40%: Predicted Andean runoff decline by 2100 under a high emissions scenario, threatening water supplies in South America
Health
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55%: Increase in severe child stunting in sub-Saharan Africa under a medium emissions scenario due to combined effects of aridity and climate warming
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Up to 12.5%: Estimated rise in mortality risks during sand and dust storms in China, 2013–2018
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57% / 38%: Increases in fine and coarse atmospheric dust levels, respectively, in the southwestern U.S. by 2100 under worst case climate scenarios
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220%: Projected increase in premature deaths due to airborne dust in the southwestern United States by 2100 under the high-emissions scenario
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160%: Expected rise in hospitalizations linked to airborne dust in the same region
Wildfires and forests
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74%: Expected increase in wildfire-burned areas in California by 2100 under high emission scenarios
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40: Additional annual high fire danger days in Greece by 2100 compared to late 20th century levels
Notes to editors:
Aridity versus drought
Highly arid regions are places in which a persistent, long-term climatic condition lacks available moisture to support most forms of life and atmospheric evaporative demand significantly exceeds rainfall.
Drought, on the other hand, is an anomalous, shorter-term period of water shortage affecting ecosystems and people and often attributed to low precipitation, high temperatures, low air humidity and/or anomalies in wind.
While drought is part of natural climate variability and can occur in almost any climatic regime, aridity is a stable condition for which changes occur over extremely long-time scales under significant forcing.
Media contacts: press@unccd.int
Fragkiska Megaloudi, +30 6945547877 (WhatsApp) fmegaloudi@unccd.int
Gloria Pallares, +34 606 93 1460 gpallares@unccd.int
Terry Collins, +1-416-878-8712 tc@tca.tc
Authors and other experts are available for advance interviews.
The full report, The Global Threat of Drying Lands: Regional and global aridity trends and future projections, is available for media preview at https://www.unccd.int/resources/reports/global-threat-drying-lands-regional-and-global-aridity-trends-and-future
Original Source: unccd.int
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