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Could a U.S.–China trade war lead to a new wave of land grabs?

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By Carin Smaller, David Laborde
A trade war is looming between the United States and China. President Donald Trump has proposed tariffs on over 1,000 Chinese imports.
China has responded, saying it would impose duties on U.S. imports, including agricultural products. If they follow through, the resulting trade war would be disastrous—and not just for those two countries. What could it mean for global food security and the environment?
Let’s examine the case of soybeans, which China threatens to hit with a 25 per cent import tariff. Today, soybeans are a ubiquitous commodity in the global food chain. Seventy per cent of soy production goes to feed animals, particularly chickens, pigs and cows, as producers cater to the increased demand for meat from growing middle classes. The rest goes toward cooking oil, biodiesel, oleochemicals and other processed foods.
Agriculture and changes in land use already account for about a quarter of global greenhouse gas emissions—a new wave of investment in soybean production outside the U.S. will lead to still more clearing of land, making matters worse.
The United States is the largest producer and exporter of soybeans, while China is the largest importer, importing two thirds of all U.S. exports. China cannot meet its own soybean demand because of limited agricultural land and stagnant yields. And yet its appetite for soybeans is immense: China imports close to 100 million metric tonnes annually—equivalent to 10,000 shipping containers per day. So what might happen if soybean imports from the United States are disrupted?
Such a move could unleash a major disruption of world markets reminiscent of the runup to the 2008 food price crisis—when the prices of rice, wheat and corn nearly doubled over a two-year period.
Shifts in China’s soybean supply typically have major market consequences. In March of this year alone, China purchased a third more soybeans from Brazil than a year earlier, driving up Brazilian soybean prices. If China replaces U.S. soybean imports with imports from other countries, their prices will rise. On the flip side, the U.S. could end up with a huge surplus of soybeans, driving down domestic prices and/or leading to dumping on other markets.
Historically, this type of disruption has had long-term impacts on the agricultural sectors of affected countries: When the Nixon administration implemented an embargo on soybean exports in the early 1970s, Brazil and Argentina expanded their production to fill the gap, triggering a trend that continues today.
More recently, the 2008 food price crisis triggered a global land rush. Many food-importing countries lost faith in the ability of world markets to reliably provide for their populations, and foreign and domestic investors acquired large tracts of farmland across Africa and Asia as a hedge against future uncertainty. A U.S.–China trade war could revive this unfortunate trend. China could be forced to search for new frontiers to secure its soybean demand and protect its supply chains, leading to another wave of so-called “land grabs.”
Indeed, China’s agricultural investments abroad have been growing steadily over the past decade, from USD 300 million in 2009 to USD 3.3 billion in 2016, most of it going to Asia (see chart below). Meanwhile, the Chinese chemicals giant ChemChina recently bought Swiss agrochemical giant Syngenta for CHF 43 billion.
If China and other countries expand global soybean production, that could exacerbate the negative environmental impacts of the global soy footprint. Soybeans are already a driver of deforestation in Brazil and Argentina. The area of land in South America devoted to soy more than tripled, from 17 million to 58 million hectares, between 1990 and 2015, mainly on land converted from natural ecosystems (FAOSTAT). Agriculture and changes in land use already account for about a quarter of global greenhouse gas emissions—a new wave of investment in soybean production outside the U.S. will lead to still more clearing of land, making matters worse.
What can be done to head off disaster? First and foremost, a trade war must be averted at all costs. But there are other opportunities for action. Governments in Africa and Asia could now act on the lessons learned from the last wave of foreign land investment. Reforms have already been introduced in many countries to reform corrupt or insider-driven business practices, and better represent the interests of people and the environment. New land laws in Mali and Benin provide a durable solution to land tenure insecurity in rural communities. Laos introduced a temporary moratorium on land investments in order to conduct a comprehensive inventory of deals and improve the legal framework for foreign investment.
China cannot meet its own soybean demand because of limited agricultural land and stagnant yields
Indeed, as shown on the map below, several African countries could become the new frontier for soybean expansion, in particular in Central and Eastern Africa. This means that the new East African Community (EAC) model contract for farmland investments is highly relevant, as it strengthens the processes for managing environmental and social impacts, and for ensuring that women’s land rights are protected.
Finally, the threats posed by today’s trade tensions offer an opportunity to rethink current production and consumption patterns and reform food systems. For the sake of the environment and for global food security, meat and dairy consumption must be reduced in countries where the consumption is too high: essentially all industrialized countries. In addition, sustainable agricultural production methods such as reducing the use of chemical fertilizers and promoting the use of animal manure as natural fertilizer must be adopted. By taking such proactive steps, the world can build sustainable, more resilient food systems that can weather both the trade and climate upheavals.
Carin Smaller is Advisor on Agriculture and Investment at the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD).
Source: IISD

WITNESS RADIO MILESTONES

Top 10 agribusiness giants: corporate concentration in food & farming in 2025

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Today a handful of agribusiness corporations have consolidated unprecedented control over the world’s food supply, with devastating consequences for farmers, consumers and the planet. A new report by ETC Group and GRAIN examines the state of corporate concentration in six sectors critical to agriculture: commercial seeds, pesticides, synthetic fertilisers, farm machinery, animal pharmaceuticals and livestock genetics.

Corporate consolidation is increasing in most of these sectors and four of them– seeds, pesticides, agricultural machinery and animal pharmaceuticals– now meet the definition of an oligopoly, in which four companies control more than 40% of a market. Concentration can be even higher at the national level, as is the case with synthetic fertilisers.

Top findings from the report include:

  • Oligopolies dominate key sectors: Bayer, Corteva, Syngenta, and BASF control 56% of the global commercial seeds market, and 61% of the pesticides market.
  • Profiteering amid global crises: Agribusiness giants have exploited crises like the Ukraine war and the COVID-19 pandemic to inflate prices. Fertiliser companies, for instance, saw revenues soar by 57% from 2020 to 2023, with some accused of price gouging.
  • Digital and biotech expansion: Corporations are rapidly integrating AI, gene editing, and digital platforms into agriculture through partnerships with Big Tech companies. These technologies enable data extraction from farmers, facilitate carbon credit schemes, and tighter control over food systems—while raising concerns about biosafety, privacy, and corporate monopolies.

View the Report

Source: grassrootsonline

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WITNESS RADIO MILESTONES

Land grabbers evict 360,000 Ugandans in 2024

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A staggering 363,021 Ugandans were displaced due to forced land evictions between January and June 2024, according to a new report by Witness Radio Uganda.

The report documented 90 cases of land evictions during this period, with nearly four incidents occurring weekly, affecting over 15,126 people and threatening 5,060 hectares of land nationwide.

The Central region was the epicenter, recording 52 eviction cases, followed by 24 in the Western region, eight in the Northern region, and six in the Eastern region. Alarmingly, the report estimated that 2,160 Ugandans face eviction daily, with 723 hectares of land at risk of being grabbed every day.

VIOLENCE AND HUMAN RIGHTS VIOLATIONS

Despite government promises and directives from President Museveni to halt evictions, land grabbers have routinely ignored these orders, often resorting to violence. Armed security forces, private militias, and police were reported to have carried out the majority of the evictions.

Of the reported cases, 37 were enforced by armed gangs on behalf of evictors, 25 involved Uganda Police, five were carried out with the participation of UPDF soldiers, and four were linked to private security companies.

“The egregious levels of impunity exhibited by land grabbers have left communities defenseless, creating an environment where their human rights are trampled without consequence,” said Jeff Wokulira Ssebaggala, country director of Witness Radio Uganda.

He called for accountability and justice, warning that the unchecked power of influential individuals and entities leaves marginalized communities vulnerable and without recourse.

DRIVERS OF EVICTIONS: INDUSTRIALIZATION AND LAND-BASED INVESTMENTS

The report identified the government’s push for industrialization and land-based investments as the primary drivers of forced evictions. Land is increasingly targeted for oil and gas extraction, mining, agribusiness and tree plantations for carbon offsets. While some of this land is already under development, other parcels remain vacant but are guarded by military personnel and private security firms.

Ssebaggala emphasized that industrialization must balance economic development with the protection of smallholder farmers’ rights to land and food security.

TRAGIC STORIES

The report highlighted harrowing cases that underscore the human toll of forced evictions. In Nakasongola, smallholder farmer Dan Ssebyala was ambushed and killed by armed men following a confrontation over disputed land. The district has become a hotspot for violent evictions involving absentee landlords and powerful investors.

Ismael Bwowe, a disabled father of 20, recounted how his land was confiscated after he demanded fair compensation. He faced intimidation, arrests and false charges from state authorities, including being accused of robbing an influential individual. Bwowe claimed that Total Energies offered legal support and representation on the condition that he accept their compensation terms.

“I refused,” he said, adding that the pressure to relinquish his land remains intense. The report underscores the urgent need for reforms to address forced evictions, ensure accountability, and protect the rights of vulnerable communities. Without meaningful intervention, Uganda risks deepening inequality and undermining the livelihoods of smallholder farmers who are essential to the country’s food security.

FAMILY JAILED AMID LAND DISPUTE

The plight of Richard Ssebagala, his wife Prossy Namande, and their relative Anania Ngabirano, residents of Kabubu-Kabongo village in Nansana Municipality, Wakiso district, highlights the human toll of Uganda’s ongoing land disputes. The family spent nine months in prison following their arrest on January 10, 2024, under controversial circumstances.

ARREST AND ALLEGATIONS

The arrests occurred at 1am, during a raid by officers from Luweero police station. Police reportedly banged on the doors and forcefully detained the family, accusing them of aggravated robbery. However, the family believes the arrest was a tactic linked to a land dispute with Benon Ntambi, a man who allegedly grabbed their land.

Before the arrests, Ntambi had reportedly destroyed crops, including tomatoes, potatoes, and bananas, on the contested land. While the family was incarcerated, a new building was constructed on their land, which is now occupied, raising further questions about the motivations behind their detention.

CALLS FOR JUSTICE

The case has drawn attention from Witness Radio Uganda, which has urged the government to take immediate action to address land grabbing and illegal evictions. The organization emphasized the need to strengthen land laws and protect vulnerable communities from abuses.

It also called for greater accountability in institutions such as the Uganda Police Force, the army and land registries, which are often accused of corruption and favoritism toward the wealthy.

“The government must prioritize justice for victims of illegal evictions and address systemic corruption that leaves the poor defenseless against land grabbers,” Witness Radio Uganda stated.

BROADER CONTEXT

This case underscores the broader issue of land conflicts in Uganda, where vulnerable families are often caught in disputes with powerful individuals or entities. Advocacy groups warn that the failure to address these issues not only erodes public trust but also perpetuates inequality and injustice.

As the government faces mounting pressure to act, the story of Ssebagala and his family serves as a stark reminder of the urgent need for reforms to protect land rights and ensure justice for those impacted by land disputes.

Source: The Observer

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WITNESS RADIO MILESTONES

Uganda: Community members violently evicted by security forces, allegedly related to EACOP; incl. co. responses

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On 10 February 2023, more than 2,500 community members were forcibly evicted from their land in Kapapi village in Hoima district in Western Uganda by security forces, receiving no compensation or resettlement.

Witness Radio, an Ugandan non-profit organisation comprised of human rights investigative journalists, lawyers, and social workers, said that many people were wounded during the eviction, women were raped, and houses were destroyed.

Witness Radio said its investigations found that this eviction occurred to clear the path for the Tilenga feeder pipeline, part of the East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP). According to Witness Radio, in 2022 Kapapi community members’ land was surveyed for the Tilenga pipeline and people were informed they would be compensated for the land. Instead, they were forcibly evicted, which Witness Radio allege was backed and financed by Swacoff Intertrade Company Limited, known to TotalEnergies. They also allege that guards from private security company Magnum Security were involved. Witness Radio has also found that dozens of local farmers who were evicted have been arbitrarily arrested and face criminal charges.

The Business & Human Rights Resource Centre invited TotalEnergies, Swacoff Intertrade Company Limited, and Magnum Security to respond to the allegations. TotalEnergies responded and stated that no land eviction activities had been carried out by or on behalf of TotalEnergies EP Uganda (TEPU) and EACOP Ltd and that none of the affected people are Tilenga or EACOP Project Affected Persons. Swacoff responded and said that the company has never engaged in forceful eviction of any sort and asserts that these allegations are completely false. Their full responses and rejoinders from Witness Radio are available below. Magnum Security did not respond.

Source: Business & Human Rights Resource Centre

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