Connect with us

WITNESS RADIO MILESTONES

Could a U.S.–China trade war lead to a new wave of land grabs?

Published

on

By Carin Smaller, David Laborde
A trade war is looming between the United States and China. President Donald Trump has proposed tariffs on over 1,000 Chinese imports.
China has responded, saying it would impose duties on U.S. imports, including agricultural products. If they follow through, the resulting trade war would be disastrous—and not just for those two countries. What could it mean for global food security and the environment?
Let’s examine the case of soybeans, which China threatens to hit with a 25 per cent import tariff. Today, soybeans are a ubiquitous commodity in the global food chain. Seventy per cent of soy production goes to feed animals, particularly chickens, pigs and cows, as producers cater to the increased demand for meat from growing middle classes. The rest goes toward cooking oil, biodiesel, oleochemicals and other processed foods.
Agriculture and changes in land use already account for about a quarter of global greenhouse gas emissions—a new wave of investment in soybean production outside the U.S. will lead to still more clearing of land, making matters worse.
The United States is the largest producer and exporter of soybeans, while China is the largest importer, importing two thirds of all U.S. exports. China cannot meet its own soybean demand because of limited agricultural land and stagnant yields. And yet its appetite for soybeans is immense: China imports close to 100 million metric tonnes annually—equivalent to 10,000 shipping containers per day. So what might happen if soybean imports from the United States are disrupted?
Such a move could unleash a major disruption of world markets reminiscent of the runup to the 2008 food price crisis—when the prices of rice, wheat and corn nearly doubled over a two-year period.
Shifts in China’s soybean supply typically have major market consequences. In March of this year alone, China purchased a third more soybeans from Brazil than a year earlier, driving up Brazilian soybean prices. If China replaces U.S. soybean imports with imports from other countries, their prices will rise. On the flip side, the U.S. could end up with a huge surplus of soybeans, driving down domestic prices and/or leading to dumping on other markets.
Historically, this type of disruption has had long-term impacts on the agricultural sectors of affected countries: When the Nixon administration implemented an embargo on soybean exports in the early 1970s, Brazil and Argentina expanded their production to fill the gap, triggering a trend that continues today.
More recently, the 2008 food price crisis triggered a global land rush. Many food-importing countries lost faith in the ability of world markets to reliably provide for their populations, and foreign and domestic investors acquired large tracts of farmland across Africa and Asia as a hedge against future uncertainty. A U.S.–China trade war could revive this unfortunate trend. China could be forced to search for new frontiers to secure its soybean demand and protect its supply chains, leading to another wave of so-called “land grabs.”
Indeed, China’s agricultural investments abroad have been growing steadily over the past decade, from USD 300 million in 2009 to USD 3.3 billion in 2016, most of it going to Asia (see chart below). Meanwhile, the Chinese chemicals giant ChemChina recently bought Swiss agrochemical giant Syngenta for CHF 43 billion.
If China and other countries expand global soybean production, that could exacerbate the negative environmental impacts of the global soy footprint. Soybeans are already a driver of deforestation in Brazil and Argentina. The area of land in South America devoted to soy more than tripled, from 17 million to 58 million hectares, between 1990 and 2015, mainly on land converted from natural ecosystems (FAOSTAT). Agriculture and changes in land use already account for about a quarter of global greenhouse gas emissions—a new wave of investment in soybean production outside the U.S. will lead to still more clearing of land, making matters worse.
What can be done to head off disaster? First and foremost, a trade war must be averted at all costs. But there are other opportunities for action. Governments in Africa and Asia could now act on the lessons learned from the last wave of foreign land investment. Reforms have already been introduced in many countries to reform corrupt or insider-driven business practices, and better represent the interests of people and the environment. New land laws in Mali and Benin provide a durable solution to land tenure insecurity in rural communities. Laos introduced a temporary moratorium on land investments in order to conduct a comprehensive inventory of deals and improve the legal framework for foreign investment.
China cannot meet its own soybean demand because of limited agricultural land and stagnant yields
Indeed, as shown on the map below, several African countries could become the new frontier for soybean expansion, in particular in Central and Eastern Africa. This means that the new East African Community (EAC) model contract for farmland investments is highly relevant, as it strengthens the processes for managing environmental and social impacts, and for ensuring that women’s land rights are protected.
Finally, the threats posed by today’s trade tensions offer an opportunity to rethink current production and consumption patterns and reform food systems. For the sake of the environment and for global food security, meat and dairy consumption must be reduced in countries where the consumption is too high: essentially all industrialized countries. In addition, sustainable agricultural production methods such as reducing the use of chemical fertilizers and promoting the use of animal manure as natural fertilizer must be adopted. By taking such proactive steps, the world can build sustainable, more resilient food systems that can weather both the trade and climate upheavals.
Carin Smaller is Advisor on Agriculture and Investment at the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD).
Source: IISD

WITNESS RADIO MILESTONES

Land grabbers evict 360,000 Ugandans in 2024

Published

on

A staggering 363,021 Ugandans were displaced due to forced land evictions between January and June 2024, according to a new report by Witness Radio Uganda.

The report documented 90 cases of land evictions during this period, with nearly four incidents occurring weekly, affecting over 15,126 people and threatening 5,060 hectares of land nationwide.

The Central region was the epicenter, recording 52 eviction cases, followed by 24 in the Western region, eight in the Northern region, and six in the Eastern region. Alarmingly, the report estimated that 2,160 Ugandans face eviction daily, with 723 hectares of land at risk of being grabbed every day.

VIOLENCE AND HUMAN RIGHTS VIOLATIONS

Despite government promises and directives from President Museveni to halt evictions, land grabbers have routinely ignored these orders, often resorting to violence. Armed security forces, private militias, and police were reported to have carried out the majority of the evictions.

Of the reported cases, 37 were enforced by armed gangs on behalf of evictors, 25 involved Uganda Police, five were carried out with the participation of UPDF soldiers, and four were linked to private security companies.

“The egregious levels of impunity exhibited by land grabbers have left communities defenseless, creating an environment where their human rights are trampled without consequence,” said Jeff Wokulira Ssebaggala, country director of Witness Radio Uganda.

He called for accountability and justice, warning that the unchecked power of influential individuals and entities leaves marginalized communities vulnerable and without recourse.

DRIVERS OF EVICTIONS: INDUSTRIALIZATION AND LAND-BASED INVESTMENTS

The report identified the government’s push for industrialization and land-based investments as the primary drivers of forced evictions. Land is increasingly targeted for oil and gas extraction, mining, agribusiness and tree plantations for carbon offsets. While some of this land is already under development, other parcels remain vacant but are guarded by military personnel and private security firms.

Ssebaggala emphasized that industrialization must balance economic development with the protection of smallholder farmers’ rights to land and food security.

TRAGIC STORIES

The report highlighted harrowing cases that underscore the human toll of forced evictions. In Nakasongola, smallholder farmer Dan Ssebyala was ambushed and killed by armed men following a confrontation over disputed land. The district has become a hotspot for violent evictions involving absentee landlords and powerful investors.

Ismael Bwowe, a disabled father of 20, recounted how his land was confiscated after he demanded fair compensation. He faced intimidation, arrests and false charges from state authorities, including being accused of robbing an influential individual. Bwowe claimed that Total Energies offered legal support and representation on the condition that he accept their compensation terms.

“I refused,” he said, adding that the pressure to relinquish his land remains intense. The report underscores the urgent need for reforms to address forced evictions, ensure accountability, and protect the rights of vulnerable communities. Without meaningful intervention, Uganda risks deepening inequality and undermining the livelihoods of smallholder farmers who are essential to the country’s food security.

FAMILY JAILED AMID LAND DISPUTE

The plight of Richard Ssebagala, his wife Prossy Namande, and their relative Anania Ngabirano, residents of Kabubu-Kabongo village in Nansana Municipality, Wakiso district, highlights the human toll of Uganda’s ongoing land disputes. The family spent nine months in prison following their arrest on January 10, 2024, under controversial circumstances.

ARREST AND ALLEGATIONS

The arrests occurred at 1am, during a raid by officers from Luweero police station. Police reportedly banged on the doors and forcefully detained the family, accusing them of aggravated robbery. However, the family believes the arrest was a tactic linked to a land dispute with Benon Ntambi, a man who allegedly grabbed their land.

Before the arrests, Ntambi had reportedly destroyed crops, including tomatoes, potatoes, and bananas, on the contested land. While the family was incarcerated, a new building was constructed on their land, which is now occupied, raising further questions about the motivations behind their detention.

CALLS FOR JUSTICE

The case has drawn attention from Witness Radio Uganda, which has urged the government to take immediate action to address land grabbing and illegal evictions. The organization emphasized the need to strengthen land laws and protect vulnerable communities from abuses.

It also called for greater accountability in institutions such as the Uganda Police Force, the army and land registries, which are often accused of corruption and favoritism toward the wealthy.

“The government must prioritize justice for victims of illegal evictions and address systemic corruption that leaves the poor defenseless against land grabbers,” Witness Radio Uganda stated.

BROADER CONTEXT

This case underscores the broader issue of land conflicts in Uganda, where vulnerable families are often caught in disputes with powerful individuals or entities. Advocacy groups warn that the failure to address these issues not only erodes public trust but also perpetuates inequality and injustice.

As the government faces mounting pressure to act, the story of Ssebagala and his family serves as a stark reminder of the urgent need for reforms to protect land rights and ensure justice for those impacted by land disputes.

Source: The Observer

Continue Reading

WITNESS RADIO MILESTONES

Uganda: Community members violently evicted by security forces, allegedly related to EACOP; incl. co. responses

Published

on

On 10 February 2023, more than 2,500 community members were forcibly evicted from their land in Kapapi village in Hoima district in Western Uganda by security forces, receiving no compensation or resettlement.

Witness Radio, an Ugandan non-profit organisation comprised of human rights investigative journalists, lawyers, and social workers, said that many people were wounded during the eviction, women were raped, and houses were destroyed.

Witness Radio said its investigations found that this eviction occurred to clear the path for the Tilenga feeder pipeline, part of the East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP). According to Witness Radio, in 2022 Kapapi community members’ land was surveyed for the Tilenga pipeline and people were informed they would be compensated for the land. Instead, they were forcibly evicted, which Witness Radio allege was backed and financed by Swacoff Intertrade Company Limited, known to TotalEnergies. They also allege that guards from private security company Magnum Security were involved. Witness Radio has also found that dozens of local farmers who were evicted have been arbitrarily arrested and face criminal charges.

The Business & Human Rights Resource Centre invited TotalEnergies, Swacoff Intertrade Company Limited, and Magnum Security to respond to the allegations. TotalEnergies responded and stated that no land eviction activities had been carried out by or on behalf of TotalEnergies EP Uganda (TEPU) and EACOP Ltd and that none of the affected people are Tilenga or EACOP Project Affected Persons. Swacoff responded and said that the company has never engaged in forceful eviction of any sort and asserts that these allegations are completely false. Their full responses and rejoinders from Witness Radio are available below. Magnum Security did not respond.

Source: Business & Human Rights Resource Centre

Continue Reading

WITNESS RADIO MILESTONES

Uganda: Land-grab victim communities will join counterparts in commemorating the 2024 International Day of Struggle Against Industrial Plantations.

Published

on

By Witness Radio team.

On September 21, 2024, land-grabs communities under their group, the Informal Alliance for communities affected by irresponsible land-based investments in Uganda for the first will join fellow victims in commemorating the International Day of Struggle Against Industrial Plantations, highlighting the growing threat posed by large-scale monoculture plantations.

These industrial plantations have led to the forced eviction of millions of people across Uganda, displacing indigenous communities and stripping them of their land rights and livelihoods. Driven by multinational companies and government-backed investors, with the support of government and private security entities, these evictions prioritize profits over people.

Among the many Ugandan communities still suffering the devastating impact of monoculture plantations are over 30,000 people who were violently displaced from the Namwasa and Luwunga forest reserves between 2006 and 2010 to make way for the New Forests Company’s pine and eucalyptus plantations. In addition, thousands of local and indigenous communities were illegally evicted to make way for palm oil plantations in Kalangala district. Nearly 4,000 people had their land grabbed by the Formosa tree planting company in the Mubende district, and over 35,000 were displaced in Kiryandongo to make way for industrial agriculture to grow maize, soybean, and sugarcane plantations, among others. These and other affected communities united and formed the Informal Alliance for Victims affected by irresponsible land-based investments to defend their rights in early 2019.

The International Day of Struggle Against Industrial Plantations was first celebrated on September 21, 2004, during a community network meeting fighting against industrial tree plantations in Brazil. Since then, it has become a day when organizations, communities, and movements worldwide come together to celebrate resistance and raise their voices, demanding an end to the relentless expansion of industrial tree plantations.

In Uganda, on Saturday, September 21, the 2024 commemoration will start with a radio program in a local dilect (Luganda) purposely to highlight weird experiences faced by communities displaced by large-scale monoculture plantations, struggles for justice, and holding companies and financiers accountable. A one-hour radio program starting at 10 a.m. EAT will feature leaders of the loose alliance. Listen to the radio program on Witness Radio platforms on the website www.witnessradio.org or download the Witness Radio App on playstore.

Later, land-grab victims in Uganda will join their colleagues from Africa and other countries around the globe in a webinar meeting aimed at fostering organizations’ and rural communities’ connection across member countries and communities to build confidence, share experiences, strengthen our campaign to reignite hopes and forge a bond of understanding between the Informal Alliance and victim communities shattered by destructive plantations as well as deterring future plantations expansion.

The Webinar will start at 3PM EAT and will be aired live on Witness Radio platforms on the website www.witnessradio.org or download the Witness Radio App on playstore.

Please note: Both the radio show and Webinar will be live on Witness Radio on www.witnessradio.org or download the witness radio app on playstore to listen live.

Continue Reading

Resource Center

Legal Framework

READ BY CATEGORY

Facebook

Newsletter

Subscribe to Witness Radio's newsletter



Trending

Subscribe to Witness Radio's newsletter