MEDIA FOR CHANGE NETWORK
Insights for African countries from the latest climate change projections
Published
3 years agoon

Flooding is projected to increase in eastern Africa
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) – a body of the UN tasked with providing scientific information on climate change – has released a major new report, pulling together evidence from a wide range of current and ancient climate observations. It’s the most up-to-date understanding of climate change, bringing together the latest advances in climate science.
It is crucial that we have a good understanding of the findings as they give an indication of what our future could look like.
According to the report global warming is evident, with each of the last four decades being successively warmer than any decade that preceded it since 1850. Average precipitation on land has also increased since the mid-20th century. In addition, there is high confidence that mean sea level increased by between 0.15 and 0.25m between 1901 and 2018.
The major concern is that as warming continues, more extreme climate events, such as droughts, are projected to increase in both frequency and intensity. This warming is mainly driven by greenhouse gas emissions from human activities such as burning fossil fuels (coal, natural gas, and oil) and coal production.
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When it comes to African countries, the report projects an increase in average temperatures and hot extremes across the continent. The continent will likely experience drier conditions with an exception of the Sahara and eastern Africa.
Alarmingly, the rate of temperature increase across the continent exceeds the global average. In addition, as warming continues, the frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall events are projected to increase almost everywhere in Africa. Maritime heatwaves and sea level rises are also projected to increase along the continental shores.
Looking into the future, global warming could lead to an increase in hot extremes, including heatwaves. It could also lead to a decrease in cold extremes.
The projected dry and hot conditions will have a devastating impact on a continent where the economies of most countries, and the livelihoods of most people, are dependent on rain-fed agriculture. In fact, changes to the climate will affect almost all parts of our lives.
Regional impacts
In a scenario where global warming will reach at least 2°C by mid-21st century (as predicted by the report), southern Africa is highly likely to experience a reduction in mean precipitation (water vapour that falls, such as rain or drizzle or hail). This will adversely affect agriculture. Specifically, the region is likely to witness an increase in aridity, and droughts. We are already seeing this in Madagascar and South Africa.
This has serious implications for all sectors including agriculture, water and health. Drought would also likely reduce hydroelectric generation potential, adversely affecting energy dependent sectors. We are already seeing this at the Kariba dam which sits between Zimbabwe and Zambia.
In addition, there will be more tropical storms in the region. In southern Africa there’s been a southward shift in the occurrence of tropical cyclones. This is due to sea temperatures increasing as a result of global warming. The concern is that these events will be particularly destructive as seen in Madagascar and over Mozambique.
Read more: Rising sea temperatures are shaping tropical storms in southern Africa
In relation to eastern Africa, the report projected an increase in mean precipitation that favours agriculture. However, increases in the frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation and flooding may cause a counter effect in some areas, such as arid and semi-arid lands.
There has been some conflicting information regarding rainfall in eastern Africa. This follows observations that the general circulation models, used in preparation of IPCC reports, do not simulate the observed rainfall well over the region. Most models project increase in rainfall while observations report the opposite. This has been termed ‘the paradox of east Africa climate’. This observed shortening of rainfall season that is not captured by the models explains the paradox.
Besides rainfall, the recorded and projected temperature which is expected to increase will decrease the snow and glaciers in the region. A rise in temperatures will result in a rise in malaria cases especially in highland areas within the region.
Northern Africa is a climate change hotspot. The report anticipates with high confidence increase in temperatures in the region,causing extreme heatwaves. Projected drying will increase aridity that already begun to emerge in the region and worsen water scarcity.
Read more: A worsening water crisis in North Africa and the Middle East
Further, the situation will increase the risk of forest fires, a threat to ecosystems. As is currently seen in Algeria where, so far this year, more than 100 fires have been reported across 17 provinces, killing over 40 people.
The report also anticipated that there will be a reduction in mean wind speed over northern Africa. The wind speed is dependent on temperature and consequently atmospheric pressure changes. This will limit the region’s wind power potential, however – on a positive note – it will equally reduce dust storms that cause health impacts, such as causing and aggravating asthma, and bronchitis.
Similarly, west and central Africa are projected to record a reduction in mean precipitation and experience more agricultural and ecological droughts. All these cast a dark cloud on agriculture and water in the region.
Read more: Lagos is getting less rain, but more heavy storms. What it can do to prepare
Along the African coastlines, the relative sea-level rise is likely to contribute to an increase in the frequency and severity of coastal flooding in low-lying areas, like the recent cases in Lagos, Nigeria. This causes massive destruction to delicate coastal ecosystems and will displace communities that live in coastal towns. The sea level rise equally causes saltwater intrusion, limiting availability of fresh water.
Read more: Climate change is affecting agrarian migrant livelihoods in Ghana. This is how
Which way for Africa?
Despite the projection of decrease in mean precipitation over nearly all the regions of Africa, heavy precipitation and pluvial flooding is likely. The increase in wet extremes has far reaching effects on nearly all socioeconomic sectors, from agriculture, water, environment to infrastructure. These are some of the key sectors in socioeconomic development.
This – compounded by growing populations – gives a worrying picture of the challenges that lie ahead. This is likely to widen the existing development gap, calling for concerted effort to strengthen response mechanisms to future challenges posed by climate change.
Original Source: The conversation
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MEDIA FOR CHANGE NETWORK
Uganda’s top Lands Ministry official has been arrested and charged with Corruption and Abuse of Office, a significant event that will have far-reaching implications for land governance in the country.
Published
7 hours agoon
June 6, 2025
By Witness Radio team.
Kampala, Uganda – The commissioner of Land Registration from Uganda’s Ministry of Lands Housing and Urban Development, Mr. Baker Mugaino, has been arrested and charged before the Anti-Corruption Court, Witness Radio has learned.
Mugaino was arrested by officers from the Office of the Inspectorate of Government (IG) on Wednesday, June 4th, and arraigned before the Anti-Corruption Court, where he was charged with corruption and abuse of office. He pleaded not guilty before Chief Magistrate Rachael Nakyaze.
This development confirms findings from numerous reports and investigations by Witness Radio, a leading watchdog for land and environmental rights in Uganda. Witness Radio, through its extensive research and investigative work, has been at the forefront of uncovering systemic corruption and the misuse of authority, particularly within Uganda’s land administration institutions, which continue to fuel land-related injustices, especially against vulnerable and impoverished communities.
The arrest comes at a critical time when the country is experiencing a surge in land grabs, many of which are tied to fraudulent land dealings, title cancellations, double titling, and land transfers facilitated by compromised officials. This is an urgent situation that demands immediate attention and action.
In one of its reports released in 2024, focusing on forced evictions and emerging trends in Uganda, Witness Radio called on the Government of Uganda to address rampant corruption and abuse of power by those in authority, particularly in land registries, the Uganda Police Force, and the army combined with favoritism towards the wealthy at the expense of the poor. This call for government accountability is crucial to ensure transparency and fairness in land administration.
According to the prosecution, Mugaino, in his role as the commissioner of land registration at the Ministry of Lands, unlawfully canceled land titles on April 8 and 20, 2024, which had previously been issued to Tropical Bank Ltd, Akugizibwe Gerald Mugera, and Namayiba Park Hotel. This action, if proven, could have severe financial and social implications for these entities, potentially leading to significant losses and disruptions.
In addition, Mugaino failed to perform his duties as provided for in Section 85 of the Land Act, Cap 236, and his duties as Commissioner of Land Registration.
The center of contention arises from the land located at Kibuga Block 12, Plots 658, 659, and 665 in Kisenyi; Kibuga Block 4, Plot 152 in Namirembe; and Kyadondo Block 244, Plot 2506, in Uganda’s capital Kampala. These are prime locations that have been subject to numerous land disputes, making Mugaino’s actions particularly significant.
Under Section 87 of the Penal Code Cap 120, Mugaino will face imprisonment for a term not exceeding seven years if convicted and dismissed from public service.
Witness Radio commends the government for taking action against one of its own, recognizing it as a necessary and hopeful step toward addressing the root causes of land evictions and fraudulent land dealings.
Speaking in response to the recent arrest of the Commissioner for Land Registration, Witness Radio’s Team leader, Jeff Wokulira Ssebaggala, emphasized that most land grabs, illegal evictions, and fraudulent land dealings are orchestrated from within government offices by individuals entrusted with public authority.
“It is time for the government to prosecute its own, those whose continued abuse and misuse of public office have directly fueled widespread land injustices.” Mr. Ssebaggala added.
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MEDIA FOR CHANGE NETWORK
Environmentalists raise red flags over plan to expand oil palm fields in Kalangala
Published
2 days agoon
June 4, 2025
President Museveni inspects an oil palm plantation owned by Mr Deogratious Ssesanga, a model farmer in Kalangala District on May 26, 2023. PHOTO/PPU
Environmentalists have raised fresh concerns over the ongoing expansion of oil palm fields in other parts of Kalangala District, warning that it will degrade the ecosystem in the area.
The expansion follows a 2023 directive by President Museveni, allowing oil palm cultivation beyond Kalangala’s main island of Buggala. The initiative targets over 700 acres on Serinya Island, 600 acres on Lulamba, and 1,500 acres on Bukasa Island. Additional land on Bugaba, Bufumira, Buyovu, and Funve islands is also being earmarked for oil palm cultivation.
Environmentalists say this move contradicts earlier safeguards aimed at preserving the ecological integrity of other islands in Kalangala.
The district comprises 84 islands but only 64 are inhabited.
Mr Joseph Byaruhanga, the Kalangala District environmental officer, said the original Environmental and Social Impact Assessment (ESIA) recommended limiting oil palm to Buggala to protect the natural forests and promote food crop diversity elsewhere.
“The intent was to preserve the natural forests on other islands and maintain food crop cultivation,” Byaruhanga explained in an interview on June 3.
Oil palm cultivation in Kalangala began in 2006, primarily on mailo land. Currently, over 12,000 hectares are under cultivation, including land managed by smallholder farmers and Oil Palm Uganda Limited (OPUL).
Records at the Kalangala District Environment Office indicate that forest cover has plummeted from 57 per cent in 1954 to just 22 per cent currently. The primary drivers of deforestation include rice farming (20 per cent), oil palm growing (18 per cent), and a combination of timber harvesting, settlement, and charcoal burning (16 per cent).
“The economic benefits are pushing residents to clear more land for oil palm, but this has long-term consequences—sedimentation, pollution, and even increased lake accidents and windstorms due to changing weather patterns,” Byaruhanga warned.
“Kalangala is surrounded by shallow waters. Without vegetation to anchor the soil, siltation could gradually fill the lake. If oil palm must expand, then we need a parallel forest restoration programme.” he added.
Mr David Kureeba, a senior programme officer Forests , Biodiversity and Climate Change at National Association of Professional Environmentalists (Nape) cautioned that unregulated oil palm expansion is a looming environmental disaster in the island district . “Although oil palm is a tree-like crop, it does not replicate the ecological functions of natural forests,” he explained.
“Oil palm trees may live for 25 years, but they are no match for indigenous forests. Natural forests are biodiversity hubs with wide canopies, climbing plants, and complex ecosystems,” he added.
Mr Kureeba also noted that forest cover clearance releases greenhouse gases like methane and carbon dioxide, exacerbating global warming. “Methane alone contributes to nearly a quarter of global climate change impacts. Destroying forests releases these gases into the atmosphere,” he said.
“Forests also regulate climate through evapotranspiration, contributing to cloud formation and rainfall. The morning dew and fresh air we enjoy come from forests. Without them, even moisture exchange through leaf stomata disappears,” he further explained.
Mr Frank Muramuzi, NAPE Executive Director, emphasised Kalangala’s vulnerability due to its island geography.
“Clearing forests removes natural windbreaks, exposing the area to strong winds and dangerous weather patterns like tornadoes,” he said.
“Oil palm doesn’t absorb as much carbon dioxide or release as much oxygen as broadleaf trees. Replacing forests with oil palm only worsens the problem,” he added.
Mr Muramuzi also criticised Uganda’s EIA process. “Developers often conduct their own assessments, which tend to downplay environmental risks in favour of economic benefits,” he said.
Despite these concerns, project proponents insist the expansion is being handled responsibly.
Mr Boaz Zaake, an agronomist with Ssese Oil Palm Growers Cooperative Society Limited ( SOPAGCO), said farmers are using cover crops and maintaining buffer zones to prevent erosion and water pollution.
He also argued that most of the targeted land for new oil palm fields was previously abandoned due to tsetse fly infestations and not part of any protected forests.
“All national forests have been preserved. Oil palm trees do produce oxygen just like other trees,” he said.
Mr Muramuzi, however, dismissed this claim, arguing that oil palm trees contribute little to climate regulation.
“Oil palm isn’t a real tree in ecological terms. It has a small leaf surface and limited capacity for carbon capture. Unlike broadleaf indigenous trees, it offers minimal environmental benefits,” he said.
Kalangala Resident District Commissioner, Fred Badda, said an Environmental Impact Assessment will be conducted before any new expansion of oil palm fields is done.
“We are currently assessing the land’s availability and historical use—whether it was forested or not—before proceeding with the EIA,” he said.
At least 11,800 hectares of oil palm trees have so far been planted on Kalangala’s main Island of Buggala in the past two decades, and recently, the project started expanding to other islands of Bunyama, Bukasa and Bubembe.
Source: Monitor
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MEDIA FOR CHANGE NETWORK
Bridging the access to justice gap: Witness Radio trains paralegals ahead of Uganda’s general election.
Published
1 week agoon
May 29, 2025
By Witness Radio team.
Kiryandongo, Uganda—Communities across Uganda are currently in the midst of a pressing and severe crisis due to the impacts of land-based investments. These include forced evictions, lack of consultation, and concealed project information. These injustices persist due to a widespread lack of legal awareness and limited access to justice among affected communities.
As Uganda enters the general election period, more farming communities’ land will continue to be forcibly taken from them by multinationals and individual investors, and the number of community land rights and environmental defenders will likely increase. This is because citizen’s liberty is at stake during electoral periods and all justice institutions quite often prioritize electoral justice during this period. Besides, perpetrators of forceful land evictions may use merits of electoral violence to criminalize land and environmental rights defenders in order to silence their activism. Community land rights and environmental defenders work to protect the rights of communities to their land and natural resources. Witness Radio has documented and provided legal representation to dozens of them whose work has been criminalized by wealthy individuals and multinationals.
“We are often evicted from our land without prior consultation, compensation, or meaningful resettlement,” said Benon Beryaija, a community representative from Kiryandongo district. “The evictors tell us they have ultimate power over our land and that we have no right to resist. These evictions happen without following the law.”
Beryaija is among the thousands of people in Kiryandongo whose land was grabbed by a group of multinationals without compensation or resettlement. According to Witness Radio, Agilis Partners Limited is among the multinational companies alongside Kiryandongo Sugar Limited and Great Seasons SMC Limited that have forcibly displaced over 35,000 people to pave the way for large-scale agricultural operations since 2017.
“But all this violence continues because we are ignorant about the law,” Beryaija added. “We don’t know what to do, what to ask for, or how to demand accountability. The companies use this gap to take advantage.”
To address this critical gap in legal knowledge, Witness Radio Uganda, in collaboration with the European Union, Dan Church Aid (DCA), and the National Coalition for Human Rights Defenders in Uganda (NCHRD-U), conducted the first-ever paralegal training for selected community activists against irresponsible Land-Based Investments (LBIs) and Land and Environmental Defenders (LEDs) in the Midwestern Subregion of Uganda. This initiative aims to equip grassroots defenders with basic legal tools to resist human rights violations and abuses as well as land injustices and environmental destruction and to advocate for their communities, instilling a sense of empowerment and hope.
“Community defenders are at the forefront of the fight for land rights and environmental justice and should provide that first-hand legal support, but they often lack the tools to engage with legal systems or resolve disputes effectively. We are currently emphasizing the importance of equipping communities with legal knowledge on land and environmental rights, a clear understanding of what to do when a defender is arbitrarily arrested and detained or disappears, what to do when an investor comes to communities’ land, how to effectively to document human rights violations/abuse, and practical ways to speak to power and hold perpetrators to account for their deeds,” said Mrs. Bulyerali Joan, Witness Radio’s Head of Community Empowerment.
The three-day training, held last week from May 19th to 21st in Uganda’s mid-western region, brought together 20 participants from eviction-prone districts, including Kiryandongo, Hoima, Masindi, Kibale, Kagadi, and Buliisa. This training, which covered key topics, was a significant step in the fight against land evictions, as highlighted in a 2024 Witness Radio report on land evictions. The report, based on extensive research and interviews with affected communities, revealed the alarming rate of land evictions and the urgent need for legal empowerment among these communities.
The training covered key topics, including understanding the criminal justice system and how it operates, how to represent others and oneself in interactions with the police or in court, understanding land and environmental rights, documenting violations, legal processes for seeking redress, community mediation techniques, and how to demand accountability from perpetrators.
“Our goal is to empower them with the legal knowledge necessary to act as first responders in their communities, especially during this upcoming general election, to stop arbitrary arrests and detention, empower communities to push back illegal land evictions, and guide others even without the immediate presence of lawyers or our organization.” Ms. Buryelari added, underlining the crucial role of the paralegals in the upcoming elections.
Oyungi Jovia, one of the Land and Environmental Defenders (LEDs) who participated in the training, described it as impactful and an eye-opener, particularly in addressing pressing community concerns and understanding their role in mitigating harm. The training has not only equipped her with the necessary legal knowledge but also boosted her confidence in supporting those who seek her help.
“We didn’t know the legal processes to follow. Now we know where to start, what documents are required, and how to collect and present evidence in land-related cases,” she shared. “I have learned how to guide community members in legal matters, and now more confident in my ability to support those who come to me for help.”
Before the training, Jovia admitted that she and others often struggled to respond to community concerns due to their limited understanding of the law. “People would come to us for advice, but we barely knew what to tell them. This training has changed everything.” She added.
As land-based conflicts continue to rise in Uganda, particularly in regions targeted by large-scale agribusiness projects, Witness Radio’s paralegal initiative represents a significant step toward community-led access to justice and legal empowerment.
“We are building a network of informed grassroots leaders,” Mrs. Bulyerali emphasized, “who can defend their peers, community land rights, document violations, and help others seek justice, even in the absence of Witness Radio.”
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Uganda’s top Lands Ministry official has been arrested and charged with Corruption and Abuse of Office, a significant event that will have far-reaching implications for land governance in the country.

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Uganda’s top Lands Ministry official has been arrested and charged with Corruption and Abuse of Office, a significant event that will have far-reaching implications for land governance in the country.