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Insights for African countries from the latest climate change projections

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4 years ago

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Flooding is projected to increase in eastern Africa

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) – a body of the UN tasked with providing scientific information on climate change – has released a major new report, pulling together evidence from a wide range of current and ancient climate observations. It’s the most up-to-date understanding of climate change, bringing together the latest advances in climate science.

It is crucial that we have a good understanding of the findings as they give an indication of what our future could look like.

According to the report global warming is evident, with each of the last four decades being successively warmer than any decade that preceded it since 1850. Average precipitation on land has also increased since the mid-20th century. In addition, there is high confidence that mean sea level increased by between 0.15 and 0.25m between 1901 and 2018.

The major concern is that as warming continues, more extreme climate events, such as droughts, are projected to increase in both frequency and intensity. This warming is mainly driven by greenhouse gas emissions from human activities such as burning fossil fuels (coal, natural gas, and oil) and coal production.

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When it comes to African countries, the report projects an increase in average temperatures and hot extremes across the continent. The continent will likely experience drier conditions with an exception of the Sahara and eastern Africa.

Alarmingly, the rate of temperature increase across the continent exceeds the global average. In addition, as warming continues, the frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall events are projected to increase almost everywhere in Africa. Maritime heatwaves and sea level rises are also projected to increase along the continental shores.

Looking into the future, global warming could lead to an increase in hot extremes, including heatwaves. It could also lead to a decrease in cold extremes.

The projected dry and hot conditions will have a devastating impact on a continent where the economies of most countries, and the livelihoods of most people, are dependent on rain-fed agriculture. In fact, changes to the climate will affect almost all parts of our lives.

Regional impacts

In a scenario where global warming will reach at least 2°C by mid-21st century (as predicted by the report), southern Africa is highly likely to experience a reduction in mean precipitation (water vapour that falls, such as rain or drizzle or hail). This will adversely affect agriculture. Specifically, the region is likely to witness an increase in aridity, and droughts. We are already seeing this in Madagascar and South Africa.

This has serious implications for all sectors including agriculture, water and health. Drought would also likely reduce hydroelectric generation potential, adversely affecting energy dependent sectors. We are already seeing this at the Kariba dam which sits between Zimbabwe and Zambia.

In addition, there will be more tropical storms in the region. In southern Africa there’s been a southward shift in the occurrence of tropical cyclones. This is due to sea temperatures increasing as a result of global warming. The concern is that these events will be particularly destructive as seen in Madagascar and over Mozambique.

Read more: Rising sea temperatures are shaping tropical storms in southern Africa

In relation to eastern Africa, the report projected an increase in mean precipitation that favours agriculture. However, increases in the frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation and flooding may cause a counter effect in some areas, such as arid and semi-arid lands.

There has been some conflicting information regarding rainfall in eastern Africa. This follows observations that the general circulation models, used in preparation of IPCC reports, do not simulate the observed rainfall well over the region. Most models project increase in rainfall while observations report the opposite. This has been termed ‘the paradox of east Africa climate’. This observed shortening of rainfall season that is not captured by the models explains the paradox.

Besides rainfall, the recorded and projected temperature which is expected to increase will decrease the snow and glaciers in the region. A rise in temperatures will result in a rise in malaria cases especially in highland areas within the region.

Northern Africa is a climate change hotspot. The report anticipates with high confidence increase in temperatures in the region,causing extreme heatwaves. Projected drying will increase aridity that already begun to emerge in the region and worsen water scarcity.

Read more: A worsening water crisis in North Africa and the Middle East

Further, the situation will increase the risk of forest fires, a threat to ecosystems. As is currently seen in Algeria where, so far this year, more than 100 fires have been reported across 17 provinces, killing over 40 people.

The report also anticipated that there will be a reduction in mean wind speed over northern Africa. The wind speed is dependent on temperature and consequently atmospheric pressure changes. This will limit the region’s wind power potential, however – on a positive note – it will equally reduce dust storms that cause health impacts, such as causing and aggravating asthma, and bronchitis.

Similarly, west and central Africa are projected to record a reduction in mean precipitation and experience more agricultural and ecological droughts. All these cast a dark cloud on agriculture and water in the region.

Read more: Lagos is getting less rain, but more heavy storms. What it can do to prepare

Along the African coastlines, the relative sea-level rise is likely to contribute to an increase in the frequency and severity of coastal flooding in low-lying areas, like the recent cases in Lagos, Nigeria. This causes massive destruction to delicate coastal ecosystems and will displace communities that live in coastal towns. The sea level rise equally causes saltwater intrusion, limiting availability of fresh water.

Read more: Climate change is affecting agrarian migrant livelihoods in Ghana. This is how

Which way for Africa?

Despite the projection of decrease in mean precipitation over nearly all the regions of Africa, heavy precipitation and pluvial flooding is likely. The increase in wet extremes has far reaching effects on nearly all socioeconomic sectors, from agriculture, water, environment to infrastructure. These are some of the key sectors in socioeconomic development.

This – compounded by growing populations – gives a worrying picture of the challenges that lie ahead. This is likely to widen the existing development gap, calling for concerted effort to strengthen response mechanisms to future challenges posed by climate change.

Original Source: The conversation

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Govt targets land grabbers with first national public-land register

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August 14, 2026

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Officials say a nationwide inventory will finally let the state prove what it owns — from school compounds to road reserves — but the exercise is beginning on a shoestring.

Mukono, Uganda — Uganda has begun building its first comprehensive national register of government land, an undertaking officials say is aimed squarely at land grabbers who for years have carved up public property the state often cannot prove it owns.

The five-year exercise, the Comprehensive Government Land Inventory, will document every identifiable state plot — schools, hospitals, police stations, road reserves, wetlands and forests among them — and record who owns each, how it is used and whether it is under threat.

“If we don’t do that, then we may never have land to protect,” Lands Minister Judith Nabakooba told a regional workshop at Rider Hotel in Mukono, east of the capital Kampala, on Thursday.

The vulnerability is considerable. Government land makes up about 23 percent of Uganda’s territory, but only roughly a quarter of it has been formally titled, according to the Uganda Land Commission — leaving the majority undocumented and, officials concede, easy to grab.

Nabakooba said Uganda’s rapid transformation was making the problem worse. Towns are spreading, infrastructure and industry are expanding, and land that was rural only a few years ago is now valuable real estate. She warned that population growth — which she said could push Uganda towards 70 million people by 2050 — would only sharpen the competition for a fixed supply of land.

The minister urged local authorities to enforce physical development plans and to build upwards rather than outwards. “Can we now begin thinking of going vertical when you are building offices and spaces for accommodation… then the rest of the land is used for agricultural purposes?” she asked. She singled out Wakiso district, on Kampala’s fringes, where development pressure is most intense, and cautioned officials against surrendering government plots simply because they appeared vacant.

Local knowledge, national record

The Mukono meeting, billed as the “Buganda 1” engagement and the second after the programme’s national launch in July, gathered district chairpersons, resident district commissioners, land board members and civil society from central-region districts including Wakiso, Mukono, Buikwe, Kayunga, Luweero, Nakasongola and Buvuma.

Uganda Land Commission chairperson Prof Pen Mogi Nyeko told them their local knowledge was central to the exercise. “You all virtually know what land belongs to government,” he said, appealing to them to help identify and title state plots — and warning land boards not to hand public land to individuals.

He said the state was the country’s biggest developer, and that consolidated, protected land could anchor major projects. Nyeko pointed to the Amuru sugar scheme in northern Uganda, where the government compensated landowners across some 10,000 hectares for a plantation and factory, as an example of what public land could enable, describing the local opposition it once faced as “negative politics”. The project in fact has a long and contested history, resisted for years by Acholi communities and their leaders and fought through the courts over customary ownership before compensation was settled.

Nyeko also raised the grabbing of institutional land, including plots belonging to church-founded schools. “Many of you were students in these lands, in these schools. So it is you to help us get those lands protected,” he said. He stressed the commission was not after private property: “The constitution is very clear: land belongs to the people. For us, we are only interested in land which belongs to government.” A reliable inventory, he added, would let the state direct investors to suitable sites — “if we know that there is 2, 3 square miles of land belonging to government in Nakasongola… we recommend that area for industrialisation.”

A reform on a tight budget

For all its ambition, the programme is starting with little money. The commission has said it was costed at about 100 billion shillings (roughly $27m), but only 6 billion shillings was released this financial year, even after a parliamentary committee recommended more. Implementation will be phased, beginning with cities and municipalities where land values — and the incentive to grab — are highest.

Emmanuel Kaganzi, representing the ministry’s permanent secretary, said the register had to capture more than ownership. It should show whether each parcel was surveyed, titled and free of encroachment or competing claims, he said, giving government the chance “to intervene early” rather than react to disputes after the fact.

But a register was only as good as its upkeep, he cautioned. “A government land inventory completed today but not updated tomorrow will gradually lose its usefulness.” He said responsibility for keeping records current would fall across the commission, the ministry, local governments and the agencies that occupy state land, and pressed repeatedly for coordination between them. The inventory, he added, should build on systems already in place — the Uganda Land Information System, the National Land Information Centre and the ministry’s zonal offices, which have moved land services closer to citizens — rather than create new silos.

Kaganzi was blunt about the human element. “An accurate system will achieve little if public officers knowingly allow government land to be encroached, to be taken, to be grabbed, and irregularly allocated,” he said, adding that officials entrusted with public land must treat it as belonging to the people of Uganda.

Cross-checking a fragmented record

The commission’s secretary, Andrew Nyumba, said the state’s own records were part of the problem, scattered across the commission, ministries, local governments and district land boards and never fully reconciled. The existing records, he said, did not amount to a comprehensive picture of government land.

For each holding, he said, the inventory should answer a set of basic questions — what the parcel is, where it lies, its size and boundaries, the evidence of state ownership, which institution is responsible, how it is used, whether it is documented and whether it is occupied, encroached upon or disputed. The commission would draw on registry and cadastral data, ministry and local-government records, survey and planning information, asset registers, historical archives, community knowledge and, where needed, physical checks on the ground.

Those sources would be cross-checked against one another, and disagreements, Nyumba argued, were useful rather than a setback. “A discrepancy in information is not necessarily a failure of the exercise. It is also information,” he said, describing conflicting records as a signal of where further verification was required. The goal, he said, was to move “from fragmented information toward a more reliable, integrated and continuously maintained picture of government land in Uganda”.

The drive follows years of criticism over the commission’s record-keeping. The Auditor General has previously flagged the absence of a comprehensive government land database, and the body has been drawn into numerous court cases over contested public plots — the very gaps the inventory is meant to close.

Source: www.ugstandard.com/

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Experts rally the region to unite behind East Africa’s transformative Agroecology Bill.

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3 days ago

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August 12, 2026

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By the Witness Radio team.

Across East Africa, experts and agricultural advocates are urging a united front for the proposed East African Community (EAC) Agroecology Bill, believing its passage could revolutionize food systems, empower food sovereignty, and uplift millions of farmers’ lives.

In mid-April 2026, the East African Legislative Assembly (EALA) officially began the legislative process for the EAC Agroecology Bill, 2026, after the Agriculture, Tourism and Natural Resources Committee chairperson, Hon. Gideon Gaptan Thoar, received parliamentary leave to draft and introduce it. The drafting committee is now in the final stages of tabling the bill before parliament.

This rallying cry echoed through an online webinar hosted by the Center for Food and Adequate Living Rights and broadcast live on Witness Radio. The event gathered agricultural experts, food sovereignty champions, and regional legislators to explore the bill’s promise and the hurdles it may face.

If passed, it would lay the foundation for a unified regional legal framework championing agroecological farming throughout the East African Community. Supporters believe this could be a powerful tool to combat food insecurity, protect farmers’ rights and indigenous seeds, address climate change and biodiversity loss, and tackle challenges faced by smallholder farmers.

Mr. Andrew Adem, Program Coordinator for Food Systems at the Alliance for Food Sovereignty in Africa (AFSA), said the region must learn from the shortcomings of the Green Revolution model, which prioritized increased yields and external agricultural inputs.

He pointed out that although the model aimed to boost yields and farmers’ incomes, it left them vulnerable when harvests fell short.

Adem noted that in tough seasons, farmers often bear the high costs of expensive inputs, while intensive farming erodes agricultural diversity and time-honored knowledge.

To address these challenges, he said, agroecology flips the script by putting farmers and their wisdom at the heart of agricultural progress.

“In Africa, food is more important than yields because it carries a lot of things. Therefore, the Green Revolution failed, and hence the Agroecology Bill presents an opportunity for us to stand up and protect the sovereignty of food in Africa,” Adem said during the Webinar meeting.

He explained that agroecology inspires farmers to break free from expensive external inputs, nurture healthier soils, diversify their crops, and tap into the wealth of local knowledge and resources.

Unlike systems fixated on monocultures and quotas, advocates say agroecology embraces nutrition, culture, biodiversity, and the enduring wellbeing of farming communities.

This legislative push arrives as hunger casts a long shadow over Africa. Jean Leonard from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) highlighted that the continent bears the World’s largest hungry population, with around 309 million people affected.

He described agroecology as a holistic approach, weaving together ecological and social principles to shape and guide agricultural systems.

“Agroecology seeks to optimize interaction between people, markets, agriculture and ecosystems while addressing environmental, social and economic systems simultaneously rather than focusing on single technologies,” Leonard said.

Leonard outlined key ingredients for the success of the Bill: dedicated lawmakers, appropriate budgets, robust funding, supportive laws, and genuine involvement from farmers. She urged greater investment in youth, believing that empowering young people with resources and opportunities could open fresh paths into agriculture and speed the shift to agroecological farming.

Hon. Jackline Amongin, a Ugandan member of the East African Legislative Assembly (EALA), said the proposed legislation is intended to create a common framework for agroecological farming across the EAC.

She emphasized that the East African Community’s unique character calls for unity, not fragmented efforts, in transforming agriculture.

“We shall have the best, but all efforts must be put on enacting the Bill into law. Once the law is put in place, all the desired issues of implementation and execution will be agreed on. Other factors will follow,” she added.

Advocates stress that agroecology is more than a farming method. They see it as a philosophy that links agriculture to environmental care, social justice, cultural heritage, nutrition, and economic vitality.

This approach inspires farmers to exchange wisdom, broaden their crops, and craft solutions tailored to their unique landscapes.

According to the Bill memorandum, the purpose of the EAC Agroecology Bill, 2026, is to mainstream agroecological farming by promoting agroecology principles across agri-food systems. It seeks to integrate ecological, social and participatory approaches while combining scientific and traditional knowledge to enhance biodiversity, ecosystem services, resilience, livelihoods and food sovereignty.

“The Bill will therefore be tabled and gazetted before being subjected to public consultations, hearings and participation by members of the public. It will then proceed to a second reading before being referred to the whole House Committee for detailed consideration. Once all these processes are duly followed, the Bill will be presented for a third reading and passage by EALA. It will then go through the EAC process before ultimately becoming an Act.” She concluded.

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Four youth activists now face public nuisance charges after their arrest during a bold march toward Parliament.

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4 days ago

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August 11, 2026

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By the Witness Radio team.

At Buganda Road court, four youth activists from the Rooted in Resistance Movement were charged with public nuisance after their arrest during a passionate plea to Parliament for an oil-free Uganda.

Activists Ssembalirwa Aniwally, Mugoya Hassan, Aron Patrick Ariong, and Okanya Ivan were detained by parliamentary police as they marched with determination toward Parliament, urging the Ugandan government to abandon oil dependency in favor of an ‘oil-free economy’ built on economic freedom, sustainability, and citizen involvement.

According to the charge sheet seen by Witness Radio, the prosecution alleges that on August 10, 2026, at about 9:00 am, the four activists, along with others still at large, were at King George Way Street in Kampala Central. They wore orange T-shirts bearing the words “Rooted in Resistance” and carried placards with messages including “Prioritize Other Sectors of the Economy,” “Oil Is Temporary, Nature Is Permanent,” and “Oil Today, Problems Tomorrow.”

Prosecutors claim the activists stood on the road, disrupting traffic and creating hazards.

The activists appeared before Grade One Magistrate Her Worship Rophine Achayo at Buganda Road court yesterday, where they were charged with being a nuisance on the public road, contrary to Section 67(1) of the Road Act, Cap. 346.

Section 160(1) of the Penal Code Act, which defines a common nuisance, provides that any person who does an act not authorized by law or fails to discharge a legal duty and thereby causes “any common injury, or danger or annoyance,” or obstructs or causes inconvenience to the public in the exercise of common rights, commits the misdemeanor of common nuisance and is liable to imprisonment for one year.

The four pleaded not guilty and now await their fate in Luzira Prison, remanded until August 28, 2026.

The group’s mission was to urge Parliament to rethink Uganda’s reliance on petroleum, warning that true prosperity cannot be built on a resource that will one day run out.

The activists contend that despite years of promises—jobs, industry, infrastructure, and poverty relief—oil’s benefits have reached only a privileged few, while many others remain trapped in poverty.

“Our demand for an oil-free economy is not a rejection of development, but a demand for a different development model, one that places Ugandan citizens, productive sectors and sustainable wealth creation at the center of national planning,” the group said.

They call for bold investment in other sectors, insisting Uganda should chart a path toward sustainable wealth, citizen empowerment, and true economic independence instead of clinging to petroleum.

These arrests are part of a troubling pattern as more Ugandans face criminal charges for protesting oil projects or demanding accountability for their social and environmental costs.

12 environmental activists were arrested in Kampala in August 2025 during a protest against the East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP). Eight out of the 12 activists were later convicted and sent to prison to serve an eleven (11) month sentence. They were released from Luzira Prison on April 21, 2026, as time spent on remand had effectively covered their 11-month sentences.

The other four, including Ivan Wamboga, Baker Tamale and Habibu Nalungu, pleaded guilty and were released on November 19, 2025, after being ordered to perform community service. Mark Makoba also pleaded guilty and was released on November 6, 2025, without any additional penalty.

These cases reveal the risks faced by those who challenge Uganda’s oil agenda. Even after release, the activists’ ordeals have intensified fears for freedom of expression and assembly across civil society.

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