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Insights for African countries from the latest climate change projections

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Flooding is projected to increase in eastern Africa

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) – a body of the UN tasked with providing scientific information on climate change – has released a major new report, pulling together evidence from a wide range of current and ancient climate observations. It’s the most up-to-date understanding of climate change, bringing together the latest advances in climate science.

It is crucial that we have a good understanding of the findings as they give an indication of what our future could look like.

According to the report global warming is evident, with each of the last four decades being successively warmer than any decade that preceded it since 1850. Average precipitation on land has also increased since the mid-20th century. In addition, there is high confidence that mean sea level increased by between 0.15 and 0.25m between 1901 and 2018.

The major concern is that as warming continues, more extreme climate events, such as droughts, are projected to increase in both frequency and intensity. This warming is mainly driven by greenhouse gas emissions from human activities such as burning fossil fuels (coal, natural gas, and oil) and coal production.

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When it comes to African countries, the report projects an increase in average temperatures and hot extremes across the continent. The continent will likely experience drier conditions with an exception of the Sahara and eastern Africa.

Alarmingly, the rate of temperature increase across the continent exceeds the global average. In addition, as warming continues, the frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall events are projected to increase almost everywhere in Africa. Maritime heatwaves and sea level rises are also projected to increase along the continental shores.

Looking into the future, global warming could lead to an increase in hot extremes, including heatwaves. It could also lead to a decrease in cold extremes.

The projected dry and hot conditions will have a devastating impact on a continent where the economies of most countries, and the livelihoods of most people, are dependent on rain-fed agriculture. In fact, changes to the climate will affect almost all parts of our lives.

Regional impacts

In a scenario where global warming will reach at least 2°C by mid-21st century (as predicted by the report), southern Africa is highly likely to experience a reduction in mean precipitation (water vapour that falls, such as rain or drizzle or hail). This will adversely affect agriculture. Specifically, the region is likely to witness an increase in aridity, and droughts. We are already seeing this in Madagascar and South Africa.

This has serious implications for all sectors including agriculture, water and health. Drought would also likely reduce hydroelectric generation potential, adversely affecting energy dependent sectors. We are already seeing this at the Kariba dam which sits between Zimbabwe and Zambia.

In addition, there will be more tropical storms in the region. In southern Africa there’s been a southward shift in the occurrence of tropical cyclones. This is due to sea temperatures increasing as a result of global warming. The concern is that these events will be particularly destructive as seen in Madagascar and over Mozambique.


Read more: Rising sea temperatures are shaping tropical storms in southern Africa


In relation to eastern Africa, the report projected an increase in mean precipitation that favours agriculture. However, increases in the frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation and flooding may cause a counter effect in some areas, such as arid and semi-arid lands.

There has been some conflicting information regarding rainfall in eastern Africa. This follows observations that the general circulation models, used in preparation of IPCC reports, do not simulate the observed rainfall well over the region. Most models project increase in rainfall while observations report the opposite. This has been termed ‘the paradox of east Africa climate’. This observed shortening of rainfall season that is not captured by the models explains the paradox.

Besides rainfall, the recorded and projected temperature which is expected to increase will decrease the snow and glaciers in the region. A rise in temperatures will result in a rise in malaria cases especially in highland areas within the region.

Northern Africa is a climate change hotspot. The report anticipates with high confidence increase in temperatures in the region,causing extreme heatwaves. Projected drying will increase aridity that already begun to emerge in the region and worsen water scarcity.


Read more: A worsening water crisis in North Africa and the Middle East


Further, the situation will increase the risk of forest fires, a threat to ecosystems. As is currently seen in Algeria where, so far this year, more than 100 fires have been reported across 17 provinces, killing over 40 people.

The report also anticipated that there will be a reduction in mean wind speed over northern Africa. The wind speed is dependent on temperature and consequently atmospheric pressure changes. This will limit the region’s wind power potential, however – on a positive note – it will equally reduce dust storms that cause health impacts, such as causing and aggravating asthma, and bronchitis.

Similarly, west and central Africa are projected to record a reduction in mean precipitation and experience more agricultural and ecological droughts. All these cast a dark cloud on agriculture and water in the region.


Read more: Lagos is getting less rain, but more heavy storms. What it can do to prepare


Along the African coastlines, the relative sea-level rise is likely to contribute to an increase in the frequency and severity of coastal flooding in low-lying areas, like the recent cases in Lagos, Nigeria. This causes massive destruction to delicate coastal ecosystems and will displace communities that live in coastal towns. The sea level rise equally causes saltwater intrusion, limiting availability of fresh water.


Read more: Climate change is affecting agrarian migrant livelihoods in Ghana. This is how


Which way for Africa?

Despite the projection of decrease in mean precipitation over nearly all the regions of Africa, heavy precipitation and pluvial flooding is likely. The increase in wet extremes has far reaching effects on nearly all socioeconomic sectors, from agriculture, water, environment to infrastructure. These are some of the key sectors in socioeconomic development.

This – compounded by growing populations – gives a worrying picture of the challenges that lie ahead. This is likely to widen the existing development gap, calling for concerted effort to strengthen response mechanisms to future challenges posed by climate change.

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Witness Radio petitions chief prosecutor: Want 34 community land rights defenders and activists released from prison.

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By Witness Radio team.

In the Hoima District, Western Uganda, an urgent and immediate action is crucial to halt an ongoing land grab. The work of community land rights defenders, activists, and local leaders has unfortunately been criminalized, with thirty-four (34) people from Rwobunyonyi, Kirindasojo, and Kihohoro villages falsely accused and sent to different prisons in the Hoima district.

Criminal files No. CRB 330-2022 has Busobozi Patrick, Kaija Phillip Osborn, Mbabazi Isaya, Wembabazi Denis, Tumusiime David, and Abitegeka David charged with aggravated robbery, while the CRB 84-2023 file has Magezi Lawrence, Kaahwa Nelson Komugisa Junior, Mugenyi Vincent, and others on murder charges. The files have been established to gang the work of community defenders and activists.

According to sections 189 and 286 (2) of the Penal Code Act cap 120, both offenses carry the death penalty upon conviction.

As observed above, community land rights defenders, activists, and local leaders have been targeted since 2022. The number of targeted defenders keeps on growing. Sadly, those who have been remanded to prison are still waiting for their cases to be tried, which is tantamount to judicial harassment and persecution.

Witness Radio findings indicate that one Fred Kato Mugumba allegedly orchestrated the land grab. He is backed by officials from Hoima police, Hoima district Office of Director of Public Prosecution (ODPP), and judicial staff. Mugambe and his accomplices aim to evict over 500 small-scale farming families from their ancestral land.

If the land grab is successful, the community will suffer a devastating loss of 800 hectares of land used for food cultivation. This loss will lead to children dropping out of school, families breaking apart due to lack of resources, and a significant increase in food insecurity, hunger, poverty, and illiteracy levels in Uganda.

The affected communities have a deep-rooted connection to the land, having lived on it for over 50 years without disruption. The ongoing persecution by Mugamba and his agents is, therefore, particularly shocking and unjust.

The same land almost ended the life of Junior Lands Minister Sam Mayanja, who was targeted with gunshots when he visited the contested land on August 24, 2023, to protect land grab victims. The current situation highlights the urgent need for intervention from a powerful office.

Witness Radio has, among other interventions, petitioned the Director of Public Prosecutions (ODPP) and urged the Chief Prosecutor’s office to call the file from Hoima High Court.

The office of the DPP is a constitutional body mandated to direct police to investigate any information of a criminal nature, institute criminal proceedings against any person or authority in any court other than a court-martial, take over and continue any criminal proceedings instituted by any person or authority, and discontinue at any stage before judgment any criminal proceedings.

Uganda is experiencing an influx of land-based investments, which have fueled land-grabbing tendencies and criminalization of community land rights and environmental defenders and activists’ work.

In the petition, Witness Radio alleges that Fred Kato Mugamba fabricated these charges in collusion with John Angwadya, a former local council member and chairperson of one of the targeted villages, Rwabunyonyi, as part of a strategy to facilitate the unlawful eviction of the community from their land.

“It is deeply concerning that the accused remain in protracted detention despite the constitutional guarantee of a fair and speedy trial and right to liberty. This is a clear violation of defenders’ fundamental rights and raises serious concerns about the criminal justice system’s integrity in this matter. The prolonged delay in their trial and the apparent ulterior motive behind the charges necessitate immediate intervention to prevent the miscarriage of justice,” the petition reads in part.

Despite multiple attempts by the community to engage various stakeholders, including Hoima’s district leadership, the Hoima District Police, the State House Land Protection Unit, and the State Minister for Lands, Dr. Sam Mayanja, their efforts have been futile. Instead of finding justice, those who resist are met with criminal charges and continued evictions, leaving many families landless and helpless.

“The efforts of our clients and community individuals engaging the different offices are viewed as a threat to the evictors, hence fabricating different charges against the accused persons to pave the way for the land grabbers to occupy the land in the absence of the accused persons. It is evident that the pending charges of murder and aggravated robbery are being made as a tool to harass and deprive our clients and family members,” the petition further reads.

In the petition to the Director of Public Prosecutions (DPP), Witness Radio has called for an urgent review of the circumstances surrounding the arrests and prosecutions of the accused. Witness Radio is requesting the issuance of a Nolle Prosequi to quash the charges and the immediate release of the prisoners.

The organization also demands that the case be expedited to prevent further unwarranted deprivation of liberty and calls for an independent investigation into any potential abuses within the criminal justice system.

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The joint final review of the National Land Policy 2013, a significant and collaborative effort between the government and Civil society organizations, is underway.

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By Witness Radio team.

Under the leadership of the Ministry of Lands, Housing, and Urban Development (MLHUD), and in partnership with Civil Society Organizations (CSOs) led by Participatory Ecological Land Use Management (PELUM), a crucial final review of the National Land Policy (NLP) 2013 is taking place in Kampala.

The Consultative event is a unique and empowering opportunity for all land actors to actively contribute to shaping Uganda’s land governance framework. It seeks to engage CSOs in shaping reforms in the much-awaited National Land Policy, addressing pressing land-related concerns such as land grabbing, promoting equity in land access, and enhancing strategies for sustainable land management.

The land ministry is expected to present a revised 2024 draft of the basis for discussion and obtaining valuable input from land actors and PELUM Uganda members to boost the policy framework.

Uganda first adopted the National Land Policy in 2013 to ensure the efficient, equitable, and optimal utilization of land and land-based resources for national development. Grounded in principles drawn from the 1995 Constitution and other macro-policy frameworks such as Uganda Vision 2040 and the National Development Plan (NDP), the NLP has served as a comprehensive guideline for Uganda’s land ownership and management.

With a decade of implementation behind it, the Ministry of Lands, Housing, and Urban Development is now reviewing the policy to integrate emerging trends and challenges. This review is crucial as it will ensure the policy’s relevance in the evolving land governance landscape, directly impacting your daily lives. The consultation process underscores the government’s unwavering commitment to inclusive decision-making by involving civil society and key stakeholders in policy formulation, ensuring everyone’s voice is heard and valued.

The event will be broadcast live on Witness Radio. To listen live, download the Witness Radio App from the Play Store or visit our website, www.witnessradio.org.

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Businesses, banks and activists resist EC plans to strip back human rights legislation

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Today the European Commission introduced their ‘Omnibus simplification package’ to amend key laws of the EU Green Deal, including CSDDD, CSRD and Taxonomy. The package proposes significant changes, including the removal of civil liability provisions in the CSDDD and removing 80% of companies from scope in the CSRD.

The earlier announcement from the European Commission as well as the leaked draft to reform recently-agreed EU laws such as the CSDDD has already come under attack from businesses, expertsinvestors and activists alike.

The UN Global Compact and companies including Unilever, Vattenfall and Nestlé have also expressed their concern. Nestlé Europe’s Bart Vandewaetere said that it had “been reporting on [environmental impact and human rights issues in the supply chain] ourselves for years. European regulations mean that more companies have to start doing that. That creates a level playing field and we welcome that.”

Former president of Ireland Mary Robinson added: “Von der Leyen’s new Commission’s attempt to eviscerate these sustainability laws must not be agreed by the European Parliament and by the member states.”

The European Banking Federation warned that weakening the CSRD could create challenges for banks, echoing concerns from more than 160 investors who cautioned that the Omnibus package could harm investment and increase legal uncertainty.

CSOs such as the European Coalition for Corporate Justice (ECCJ)WWF and the Clean Clothes Campaign have also sharply criticised the proposal. The ECCJ writes the proposal is “not simplification, but full-scale deregulation designed to dismantle corporate accountability”.

Workers’ organisations and trade unions from garment-producing countries across Asia, Europe and Latin America also opposed the ‘Omnibus’ this week, highlighting the risk the proposal will “exclude most supply chain workers” including 49 million home workers.

Source: Business & Human Rights Resource Centre

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