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Insights for African countries from the latest climate change projections

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Flooding is projected to increase in eastern Africa

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) – a body of the UN tasked with providing scientific information on climate change – has released a major new report, pulling together evidence from a wide range of current and ancient climate observations. It’s the most up-to-date understanding of climate change, bringing together the latest advances in climate science.

It is crucial that we have a good understanding of the findings as they give an indication of what our future could look like.

According to the report global warming is evident, with each of the last four decades being successively warmer than any decade that preceded it since 1850. Average precipitation on land has also increased since the mid-20th century. In addition, there is high confidence that mean sea level increased by between 0.15 and 0.25m between 1901 and 2018.

The major concern is that as warming continues, more extreme climate events, such as droughts, are projected to increase in both frequency and intensity. This warming is mainly driven by greenhouse gas emissions from human activities such as burning fossil fuels (coal, natural gas, and oil) and coal production.

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When it comes to African countries, the report projects an increase in average temperatures and hot extremes across the continent. The continent will likely experience drier conditions with an exception of the Sahara and eastern Africa.

Alarmingly, the rate of temperature increase across the continent exceeds the global average. In addition, as warming continues, the frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall events are projected to increase almost everywhere in Africa. Maritime heatwaves and sea level rises are also projected to increase along the continental shores.

Looking into the future, global warming could lead to an increase in hot extremes, including heatwaves. It could also lead to a decrease in cold extremes.

The projected dry and hot conditions will have a devastating impact on a continent where the economies of most countries, and the livelihoods of most people, are dependent on rain-fed agriculture. In fact, changes to the climate will affect almost all parts of our lives.

Regional impacts

In a scenario where global warming will reach at least 2°C by mid-21st century (as predicted by the report), southern Africa is highly likely to experience a reduction in mean precipitation (water vapour that falls, such as rain or drizzle or hail). This will adversely affect agriculture. Specifically, the region is likely to witness an increase in aridity, and droughts. We are already seeing this in Madagascar and South Africa.

This has serious implications for all sectors including agriculture, water and health. Drought would also likely reduce hydroelectric generation potential, adversely affecting energy dependent sectors. We are already seeing this at the Kariba dam which sits between Zimbabwe and Zambia.

In addition, there will be more tropical storms in the region. In southern Africa there’s been a southward shift in the occurrence of tropical cyclones. This is due to sea temperatures increasing as a result of global warming. The concern is that these events will be particularly destructive as seen in Madagascar and over Mozambique.


Read more: Rising sea temperatures are shaping tropical storms in southern Africa


In relation to eastern Africa, the report projected an increase in mean precipitation that favours agriculture. However, increases in the frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation and flooding may cause a counter effect in some areas, such as arid and semi-arid lands.

There has been some conflicting information regarding rainfall in eastern Africa. This follows observations that the general circulation models, used in preparation of IPCC reports, do not simulate the observed rainfall well over the region. Most models project increase in rainfall while observations report the opposite. This has been termed ‘the paradox of east Africa climate’. This observed shortening of rainfall season that is not captured by the models explains the paradox.

Besides rainfall, the recorded and projected temperature which is expected to increase will decrease the snow and glaciers in the region. A rise in temperatures will result in a rise in malaria cases especially in highland areas within the region.

Northern Africa is a climate change hotspot. The report anticipates with high confidence increase in temperatures in the region,causing extreme heatwaves. Projected drying will increase aridity that already begun to emerge in the region and worsen water scarcity.


Read more: A worsening water crisis in North Africa and the Middle East


Further, the situation will increase the risk of forest fires, a threat to ecosystems. As is currently seen in Algeria where, so far this year, more than 100 fires have been reported across 17 provinces, killing over 40 people.

The report also anticipated that there will be a reduction in mean wind speed over northern Africa. The wind speed is dependent on temperature and consequently atmospheric pressure changes. This will limit the region’s wind power potential, however – on a positive note – it will equally reduce dust storms that cause health impacts, such as causing and aggravating asthma, and bronchitis.

Similarly, west and central Africa are projected to record a reduction in mean precipitation and experience more agricultural and ecological droughts. All these cast a dark cloud on agriculture and water in the region.


Read more: Lagos is getting less rain, but more heavy storms. What it can do to prepare


Along the African coastlines, the relative sea-level rise is likely to contribute to an increase in the frequency and severity of coastal flooding in low-lying areas, like the recent cases in Lagos, Nigeria. This causes massive destruction to delicate coastal ecosystems and will displace communities that live in coastal towns. The sea level rise equally causes saltwater intrusion, limiting availability of fresh water.


Read more: Climate change is affecting agrarian migrant livelihoods in Ghana. This is how


Which way for Africa?

Despite the projection of decrease in mean precipitation over nearly all the regions of Africa, heavy precipitation and pluvial flooding is likely. The increase in wet extremes has far reaching effects on nearly all socioeconomic sectors, from agriculture, water, environment to infrastructure. These are some of the key sectors in socioeconomic development.

This – compounded by growing populations – gives a worrying picture of the challenges that lie ahead. This is likely to widen the existing development gap, calling for concerted effort to strengthen response mechanisms to future challenges posed by climate change.

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As Uganda awaits the Energy Efficiency and Conservation law, plans to develop a five-year plan are underway.

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By Witness Radio Team.

Kampala, Uganda—The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Development (MEMD) is developing a comprehensive five-year Energy Efficiency and Conservation Strategy and Plan for Uganda (EECSP). This plan, which is expected to be completed in June 2025, aims to enhance energy efficiency and conservation efforts in Uganda. Uganda has no law governing the manufacture, distribution, and use of clean cooking technologies.

The plan is expected to be aligned with national priorities, foster partnerships, and secure stakeholder buy-in for effective implementation and long-term sustainability.

In Uganda, over 90% of household energy consumption relies on biomass, a practice that is contributing to massive deforestation. This deforestation threatens our natural habitats, worsens climate change, and increases air pollution. To address these challenges, the government wants to improve energy supply, reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and expand green energy solutions in rural areas, ensuring access to affordable and clean energy.

James Banaabe said that the government, through the Energy Ministry, has hired their firm, Castle Group of Consultants, to develop the strategy. He explained that the goal is to create an actionable plan to enhance energy efficiency across various sectors in Uganda, including industries and buildings.

“We need to develop solutions that help sectors reduce their energy bills while promoting efficiency,” he noted during a consultative meeting attended by key stakeholders, including government agencies, private sector actors, civil society, academia, and end users, which provided active and meaningful insights into the development process.

Funded by the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ), the plan seeks to set realistic, achievable energy efficiency targets across key sectors such as industry, transport, residential, and commercial, identify key areas for improvement, develop an environmental strategy, and recommend actionable measures to enhance energy efficiency and conservation.

Engineer Simon Kalanzi, Energy Efficiency and Conservation Department Commissioner at MEMD, emphasized the crucial role of continuous stakeholder engagement. “The energy efficiency strategy and plan rely on broad stakeholder engagement to ensure inclusivity, relevance, and effective implementation. Your involvement is key to addressing market barriers, sharing knowledge, and building capacity to incorporate local and international expertise,” he stated further.

The strategy will yield significant benefits over the next decade, including a promising future with steady and responsible energy usage across targeted sectors.

David Birimumaaso, a principal officer at MEMD, highlighted that the strategy would support the implementation of the Energy Efficiency and Conservation bill, which is already before Parliament. “This law mandates everyone to be mindful of energy conservation,” he added.

On February 4, 2024, the State Minister for Energy, Hon. Sidronius Opolot, tabled the Energy Efficiency and Conservation Bill, 2024. The bill seeks to regulate energy consumption, curb waste, and promote sustainable cooking technologies. According to the bill, no regulations currently govern the manufacture, distribution, and use of clean cooking technologies.

 

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Palm oil plantation expansion: A disturbing alliance between a palm oil company, district officials, and a college school is actively seizing land from farming communities in Buvuma district for their own profit.

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By Witness Radio team.

A Buvuma district land grab cartel, allegedly involving district officials, judicial officials, police personnel attached to Buvuma district police, officials from Buvuma College school, and OPUL workers, is using both police and judicial harassment to target and criminalize the farming activities of several community members in the Nairambi sub-county to expand palm oil plantations.

Commercial oil palm tree growing in Uganda started around 2005, with the first large-scale planting occurring on Bugala Island in Kalangala district under a tripartite public-private partnership with Oil Palm Uganda Limited (OPUL) and Kalangala Oil Palm Grower’s Trust (KOPGT) as the key implementers.

Initially in 2003, the Government signed an agreement to develop Uganda’s oil palm value chain with BIDCO Uganda Limited. They agreed to establish 40,000 hectares of oil palm across the country. The OPUL was to establish 23,500 hectares, while smallholders would be supported to establish 13,500 hectares.

The experience of the people in Kalangala is devastating. Several have seen their lands grabbed, their forests destroyed, and their water contaminated. People have been arrested and tortured for opposing the company, while women and children have been displaced and have nowhere to stay.

Statistics from the Ministry of Agriculture, Animal Husbandry and Fisheries reveal that in Kalangala district, the total area planted with oil palm is 10,924 hectares, comprised of 6,500 hectares belonging to OPUL and 4,424 hectares by smallholder farmers. This has forced the Government of Uganda and BIDCO to source land from other districts, including Buvuma.

Before rectifying the mess caused in the Kalangala district, OPUL, a subsidiary of BIDCO Uganda is expanding the oil palm tree growing in the Buvuma district, and there’s a notable repeat of palm oil growing-related challenges.

Buvuma District is a district in the Central Region of Uganda. Jinja District borders it to the north, Mayuge District to the east, Tanzania to the south, and Buikwe District to the west and northwest.

More than a dozen smallholder farmers in Majjo and Bukula villages in Nairambi Sub-county have been framed with criminal charges, including malicious damage and Criminal trespass on their land for refusing to give away their land for palm oil growing.

In Nairambi, Witness Radio has documented troubling patterns of land grabbing, displacement, conflict, poverty, and environmental degradation. Communities living in areas targeted for palm oil plantations are increasingly losing their ancestral lands without being consulted or expressing consent for land takeovers.

This cartel causing mayhem involves Buvuma district authorities, judicial officials, police personnel attached to Buvuma district police, officials from Buvuma College school, and OPUL workers, all colluding to take farmers’ land to grow palm oil trees forcefully.

Meet Ssalongo Ssentongo Living Stone, a 58-year-old farmer in Majjo village in Nairambi Sub-county. He is one of the many victims of the palm oil company. Over the past decade, he has been in and out of prison, facing the same charges repeatedly. He has lost four out of his five pieces of land to the company, plunging him into poverty. His story is a stark example of the injustice faced by many in similar situations.

“I am facing criminal charges because of refusing to surrender my land. Two complainants arrested me four times for a criminal trespass charge—two files by Buvuma College school and two others by Buvuma district officials. In the first case in 2020, I was arrested by police on orders of Buvuma College School as soon as I came back from prison after a year I was then re-arrested and charged with the same case of criminal trespass by police on orders of the same school. This has been the trend. When I refused to surrender it to the School, Buvuma district officials started on the same. They tell me that the land is not mine; it belongs to the school, and at the same time, the district tells me it’s forest land, yet this is land that I formally requested from the Buganda Land board.” Ssentongo added.

He said he owned about five pieces of land that supported his family of 12, but four of them were forcefully taken. He added that he has written to the Oil Palm company seeking to re-possess his land but in vain. It is now almost 10 years since four of my pieces of land were forcefully taken and have never been compensated,” Ssentongo revealed.

Despite initial land acquisitions for palm oil in Kalangala being filled with concerns of land grabbing, the trail of land grabbing for project expansion has since been replicated in Buvuma district. In the project pioneer villages of Buvuma, more than 600 people whose land was taken for the oil palm project in 2015 with promises that it would be compensated later are suffering.

Many families in Kakyanga, Kiziiru, Bukiindi, and Bukalabati villages are struggling to make ends meet. Their land, measuring over 388 hectares, was forcefully taken and is now occupied by oil palm plantations. They can no longer afford to meet their families’ basic needs, a stark reminder of the human cost of land grabbing.

With significant financial and political backing, the Buvuma Oil Palm land grab cartel which began from Kakyanga, Kiziiru, Bukiindi, Bukalabati, and Bukinarwa continues to extend to Majjo and Bukula villages in the same sub-county, Nairambi.

According to the Ministry of Agriculture statistics, palm oil trees have already covered over 5,000 hectares in the Buvuma district.

According to the affected residents, Mr. Adrian Ddungu, the chairperson of Buvuma District, is allegedly colluding with Buvuma College School to grab their land for palm oil plantations. All five families share a common struggle—the increasing criminalization they face for refusing to surrender their land. The urgency of their situation is pressing as the land grab continues to extend to Majjo and Bukula villages.

“All of our subcounty land is mostly occupied by oil palm trees. Most of it has been grabbed, and OPUL’s agents are now extending to our side. As you can see, one of our community members’ land was taken and is currently planted with palm trees.” Nsubuga, another victim, said.

Efforts to get a comment on the community’s allegations from OPUL were futile, as our phone calls went unanswered, and our emails received no response.

However, Mr. Adrian Ddungu, the District Chairman, and Mr. Lawrence Sserwanga, the Chairperson of the Board of Governors at Buvuma College, denied allegations of involvement in land grabbing. Instead, they both claimed that the residents were occupying the land illegally and insisted they had no intentions of selling it to OPUL. They also stated that the land was given to the school, and the residents were compensated.

“The land belongs to the Buvuma school; those people gave the land to the school and were compensated.” Mr. Ddungu revealed.

In contrast, Mr. Ddungu’s response diverged from Mr. Sserwanga’s. Mr. Sserwanga maintained that the early inhabitants of the land had willingly donated it to the school without expecting compensation. “They gave it freely because they wanted to see a school built; donations are not supposed to be compensated,’ he told Witness Radio, which raises questions on how the school acquired land.

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The Taiwanese investor & Others: Dozens of community land and environmental rights defenders are in prison for opposing his aggressive land acquisition tactics.

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By Witness Radio team.

An independent investigation by Witness Radio has revealed that a tree plantation co-owned by the Taiwanese has aided the criminalization of over 20 community land defenders’ work in Mubende District and caused prison sentences ranging from 30 months to 34 years, respectively.

Witness Radio is a Ugandan-based not-for-profit organization that uses legal aid support and media-oriented approaches, such as investigative, data, and advocacy journalism, to protect and promote the land and environmental rights of local and Indigenous communities in development.

These investigations, spanning two months, have unearthed a staggering 23 cases of criminalization against defenders since Quality Parts commenced operations in Mubende District in 2011. These arbitrary arrests, kidnaps, raids of defenders’ homes at night, assaults, tortures, and alleged aiding of unfair convictions are a stark reminder of the profound injustice faced by those who oppose the company’s land grab of the community land.

For many years, Quality Parts Limited has deployed Mubende district police, private security firms, and company workers to carry out intimidation, coercion, and manipulation. No community member has ever been consulted or consented to the removal of their land.

In their unwavering commitment, these defenders are protecting a community of smallholder farmers who have lawfully occupied and cultivated their land for over five (5) decades. Most smallholder farmers have legal documents proving their legitimate land ownership, starkly contrasting the injustice they face.

Quality Parts Uganda Limited, incorporated in 2000, operates plantations of pine and eucalyptus trees in Mubende district, southwestern Uganda. The company is co-owned by Taiwanese investor Chang Shu-mu, known as Martin Chang, and his wife, Anna Kyoheirwe.

When writing this report, nine (9) community defenders are serving prison sentences ranging from 30 months to 34 years in Muyinayina and Kaweeri government prisons in the Mubende district, with the majority facing multiple offenses. According to Witness Radio interviews, more community defenders allege that the company regularly threatens community land defenders that they will face the same fate if they continue to oppose its actions.

In the latest incident, hell broke loose in the early morning hours of January 29, 2024, when four Quality Parts Uganda Ltd company workers, guarded by three armed police officers in casual attire (later it was established to be attached to Mubende Central Police Station), attacked, beat, and arbitrarily arrested three land rights defenders based in Kicuculo village, Kiruuma Sub-county in Mubende district accusing them of destroying the tree plantation. It was the second brutal arrest of the trio.

The three defenders, Byakatonda David, Kabuuka Levi, and Byamukama Yuda, the Kicucuulo Village chairman, were briefly taken to Mubende Police before being aligned before Mubende district Magistrates’ Court. They were charged with malicious property damage and remanded to Kaweeri Prison on the same day.

Mr. Byamukama Yuda is one of those serving a 30-month sentence at Muyinayina Prison; an interview with Witness Radio revealed that three armed Police officers from Mubende and company officials raided his home at 5 a.m., manhandled and assaulted, and arrested him without explanation.

“In the early hours of the morning, the group raided my home and ordered me to open the door. At first, I hesitated because I had no idea who they were since they never introduced themselves. But when they started aggressively banging one of my house’s doors, my wife and I had no choice but to open it. The moment I did, my eyes met the furious faces of armed officers who humiliated and assaulted me in front of my wife and children before forcefully arresting me without offering any explanation. These officers threw me into a waiting saloon car whose number plates I can’t recall, where I found workers from Quality Parts. Instead of offering any clarity about my arrest, they just threatened me, accusing me of being ‘big-headed. Within minutes, they sped off to my son Levi’s home, where he, too, was arbitrarily arrested alongside me,” Byamukama revealed.

Another defender, 62-year-old Byakatonda David, was forcefully arrested by masked gangs wielding machetes, led by a man named Kayumba, affiliated with Quality Parts Uganda Ltd. He revealed, “These men told me that the police had instructed them to arrest me and take me to join the other two who had been arrested earlier (Byamukama and Kabuuka). They forcefully arrested threatening to cause more harm to me in case I tried to resist,” the defender told Witness Radio.

They further revealed that their continued mobilization of community members (villagers) to resist the company’s land grab continues to lead to their criminalization. This continued criminalization highlights the deep-rooted injustices that defenders face when opposing harmful development projects. The trio spent five months on remand at Kaweeri prison, appeared in court over 18 times, and emphasized that their conviction was made in bad faith.

“First of all, this case was unnecessarily delayed, as either the state or the magistrate frequently absented themselves, forcing us to appear in court numerous times. The trial was also unfair, as we were never allowed to defend ourselves. Also, the evidence presented was fake. In the ruling, the magistrate stated that the testimony of four witnesses satisfied the court, yet only three appeared, and even their evidence was questionable,” Mr. Byakatonda further mentioned.

Witness Radio has also established that powerful multinational companies are using police, district officials, and court personnel to aid land grabbing. The same system weakens the poor landowners and forces them to surrender their land for Quality Parts. “When we try to resist, they oppress us. The company tells us they are backed by government officials and other powerful individuals in security forces, which is evident because even when we report our cases to authorities, little or no action is taken. They tell us we have no power to oppose the investors,” Byamukama expressed his disappointment.

On June 21, 2024, the three were convicted of malicious damage to property and sentenced to 30 months in Muyinayina prison despite inconsistencies in the evidence presented by witnesses.

The charges against the community defenders stem from a violent incident on December 6, 2022, when a group of over 20 casual workers linked to Quality Parts Uganda Ltd attacked the village of Kicucuulo, hacked people, and destroyed property, including houses and crops. These workers raided the homes of outspoken community members, cut people with pangas, and beat everyone they found in their homes, threatening to kill them if they didn’t leave the land. Three people were hacked, while properties worth millions of Shillings were destroyed.

Despite the violence they endured that day, those who were hacked and others whose property was destroyed were arrested when they went to report the incident to Mubende police.

Meanwhile, the company workers responsible for the harm remained untouched. At that time, the defenders, Kabuka Levi, Lubwama Robert, Bulegeya Erisa, Byakatonda David, and Byamukama Yuda, were arrested, interrogated, and made to record statements before being released on police bond.

“When we reached Mubende police, we were all arrested and interrogated for almost an hour before recording statements on malicious damage charges. The company claimed we cut its trees, which we did not do,” Mr. Kabuka Levi told Witness Radio in an interview in 2023.

Witness Radio’s investigations have also found out that by the time the alleged tree cutting took place, as said by the company and its witnesses in court, that is the same time, the accused were treating wounds from the previous attack by the company workers, raising questions on whether the accused were the real suspects.

“It is unfortunate that people accused of committing land-related crimes against the ‘investor’ are landowners who have for generations occupied and cultivated their land until they faced this violent land grab. Duty bearer agencies have been captured and are being used to target defenders and activists pushing back forced evictions,” Witness Radio’s Team Leader Jeff Wokulira Ssebaggala said.

The Mubende Magistrates Court eventually dismissed the case on October 17, 2023, due to a lack of evidence. However, in January 2024, the three Byamukama, Byakatonda, and Kabuuka were arrested, charged, and convicted again for the same offense of cutting the company’s trees.

This trend of persecution has instilled fear in the majority of the community, with a saying: “You accept what the company wants, or you go to jail for opposing it.” Other individuals arrested for resisting the company’s land grab include Kaberuka Fenehansi, who died last year while serving a prison sentence; Sinamenya Paul, Ssemombwe Richard, Ategeka Esau, Bukenya Godfrey, Ssebanenya Yona, and Sserugo Sam, all serving sentences ranging from 15 to 34 years.

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