MEDIA FOR CHANGE NETWORK
Insights for African countries from the latest climate change projections
Published
4 years agoon

Flooding is projected to increase in eastern Africa
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) – a body of the UN tasked with providing scientific information on climate change – has released a major new report, pulling together evidence from a wide range of current and ancient climate observations. It’s the most up-to-date understanding of climate change, bringing together the latest advances in climate science.
It is crucial that we have a good understanding of the findings as they give an indication of what our future could look like.
According to the report global warming is evident, with each of the last four decades being successively warmer than any decade that preceded it since 1850. Average precipitation on land has also increased since the mid-20th century. In addition, there is high confidence that mean sea level increased by between 0.15 and 0.25m between 1901 and 2018.
The major concern is that as warming continues, more extreme climate events, such as droughts, are projected to increase in both frequency and intensity. This warming is mainly driven by greenhouse gas emissions from human activities such as burning fossil fuels (coal, natural gas, and oil) and coal production.
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When it comes to African countries, the report projects an increase in average temperatures and hot extremes across the continent. The continent will likely experience drier conditions with an exception of the Sahara and eastern Africa.
Alarmingly, the rate of temperature increase across the continent exceeds the global average. In addition, as warming continues, the frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall events are projected to increase almost everywhere in Africa. Maritime heatwaves and sea level rises are also projected to increase along the continental shores.
Looking into the future, global warming could lead to an increase in hot extremes, including heatwaves. It could also lead to a decrease in cold extremes.
The projected dry and hot conditions will have a devastating impact on a continent where the economies of most countries, and the livelihoods of most people, are dependent on rain-fed agriculture. In fact, changes to the climate will affect almost all parts of our lives.
Regional impacts
In a scenario where global warming will reach at least 2°C by mid-21st century (as predicted by the report), southern Africa is highly likely to experience a reduction in mean precipitation (water vapour that falls, such as rain or drizzle or hail). This will adversely affect agriculture. Specifically, the region is likely to witness an increase in aridity, and droughts. We are already seeing this in Madagascar and South Africa.
This has serious implications for all sectors including agriculture, water and health. Drought would also likely reduce hydroelectric generation potential, adversely affecting energy dependent sectors. We are already seeing this at the Kariba dam which sits between Zimbabwe and Zambia.
In addition, there will be more tropical storms in the region. In southern Africa there’s been a southward shift in the occurrence of tropical cyclones. This is due to sea temperatures increasing as a result of global warming. The concern is that these events will be particularly destructive as seen in Madagascar and over Mozambique.
Read more: Rising sea temperatures are shaping tropical storms in southern Africa
In relation to eastern Africa, the report projected an increase in mean precipitation that favours agriculture. However, increases in the frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation and flooding may cause a counter effect in some areas, such as arid and semi-arid lands.
There has been some conflicting information regarding rainfall in eastern Africa. This follows observations that the general circulation models, used in preparation of IPCC reports, do not simulate the observed rainfall well over the region. Most models project increase in rainfall while observations report the opposite. This has been termed ‘the paradox of east Africa climate’. This observed shortening of rainfall season that is not captured by the models explains the paradox.
Besides rainfall, the recorded and projected temperature which is expected to increase will decrease the snow and glaciers in the region. A rise in temperatures will result in a rise in malaria cases especially in highland areas within the region.
Northern Africa is a climate change hotspot. The report anticipates with high confidence increase in temperatures in the region,causing extreme heatwaves. Projected drying will increase aridity that already begun to emerge in the region and worsen water scarcity.
Read more: A worsening water crisis in North Africa and the Middle East
Further, the situation will increase the risk of forest fires, a threat to ecosystems. As is currently seen in Algeria where, so far this year, more than 100 fires have been reported across 17 provinces, killing over 40 people.
The report also anticipated that there will be a reduction in mean wind speed over northern Africa. The wind speed is dependent on temperature and consequently atmospheric pressure changes. This will limit the region’s wind power potential, however – on a positive note – it will equally reduce dust storms that cause health impacts, such as causing and aggravating asthma, and bronchitis.
Similarly, west and central Africa are projected to record a reduction in mean precipitation and experience more agricultural and ecological droughts. All these cast a dark cloud on agriculture and water in the region.
Read more: Lagos is getting less rain, but more heavy storms. What it can do to prepare
Along the African coastlines, the relative sea-level rise is likely to contribute to an increase in the frequency and severity of coastal flooding in low-lying areas, like the recent cases in Lagos, Nigeria. This causes massive destruction to delicate coastal ecosystems and will displace communities that live in coastal towns. The sea level rise equally causes saltwater intrusion, limiting availability of fresh water.
Read more: Climate change is affecting agrarian migrant livelihoods in Ghana. This is how
Which way for Africa?
Despite the projection of decrease in mean precipitation over nearly all the regions of Africa, heavy precipitation and pluvial flooding is likely. The increase in wet extremes has far reaching effects on nearly all socioeconomic sectors, from agriculture, water, environment to infrastructure. These are some of the key sectors in socioeconomic development.
This – compounded by growing populations – gives a worrying picture of the challenges that lie ahead. This is likely to widen the existing development gap, calling for concerted effort to strengthen response mechanisms to future challenges posed by climate change.
Original Source: The conversation
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Four hundred fifty victim families of the Oil Palm project in Buvuma are to receive compensation by this Friday – Witness Radio
Published
2 weeks agoon
December 17, 2025
By Witness Radio team.
Entebbe, Uganda-President Yoweri Museveni has directed the Ministry of Agriculture, Animal Industry and Fisheries (MAAIF) to compensate the oil palm Project immediately Affected Persons (PAPs) in Buvuma District, following a physical meeting with residents who had camped in Entebbe for nearly two weeks protesting delayed and selective compensation. The 450 victim families are part of over 1400 families that have lost their land to the oil palm project in Buvuma district.
The affected residents, numbering approximately 450, had sought the President’s intervention after being repeatedly excluded from the ongoing compensation process under the National Oil Palm Project (NOPP), despite earlier presidential directives on their compensation.
During the meetings on Friday and Saturday, community representatives told the President about prolonged delays, lack of transparency, and exclusion from compensation lists.
“We told the President about the back-and-forth his ministries have been sending us through, the lack of participation, and how we have been wrongly portrayed as people who do not own land when we do. Because he knows us, we reminded him of the directive he issued when he visited our area, which his ministries later claimed they were not aware of,” Witness Radio source highlighted.
President Museveni reportedly expressed surprise over the continued delays.
“I thought they had paid you. Why is it taking so long?” the President was quoted as saying during the meeting.
The President immediately directed MAAIF to work closely with the Office of the President to ensure that compensation is processed and paid without further delay.
According to the source, who attended the meeting, the President personally followed up on the matter.
“I have been directly talking to the President, and he told me that he is sending representatives from his office. He said he advised them to work with MAAIF to make sure we are compensated, and he wanted this to be done soon,” the source added.
While more than 200 residents had camped in Entebbe, the President advised them to select 20 representatives to ensure their voices are heard and that they feel included in the process.
“The President advised us to reduce to 20 people to represent the whole community since we knew what everyone wanted,” it added.
Following the President’s order, a joint meeting between representatives of the affected residents, MAAIF, and officials from the President’s Office was held yesterday in Entebbe.
It was resolved that compensation should be completed before Friday.
During the meeting and after reviewing relevant supporting documents, residents revealed that it was agreed that the government would compensate their group of approximately 450 affected persons with 16 billion Uganda shillings, which is intended to cover land loss, destroyed crops, and displacement caused by the oil palm project, clarifying how the funds will address their specific losses.
This directive comes close to two weeks after residents from Nairambi, Busamizi, Buvuma Town Council, and Buwooya Sub-counties camped in Entebbe, accusing government ministries of ignoring an earlier presidential order issued during the President’s June 18, 2025, visit to Buvuma District.
During that visit, the President had directed that all affected households be compensated and that 28 billion shillings be allocated, with 14 billion to be released immediately. However, six months later, many residents remained uncompensated, prompting renewed protests.
The compensation dispute dates back to 2018, when more than 100 residents sued the government and Bidco in Mukono High Court over forced evictions, delayed compensation, and lack of disclosure. The case was later transferred to Lugazi High Court.
During his June visit, the President advised the complainants to pursue an out-of-court settlement, promising faster compensation. This pledge, residents say, had not been honored until the latest intervention.
Even after the Ministry of Agriculture announced earlier this month that it would compensate oil palm-affected residents in Buvuma and Sango Bay, the group said it had not been consulted, prompting them to demand a meeting with the president.
As of publication, the affected residents say they are awaiting implementation of the President’s directive, hoping that the latest orders will finally bring an end to years of uncertainty and hardship.
“By Friday, we hope everything will have been processed because we submitted all the necessary supporting documents, and a team from the Office of the President is supervising the process,” it added.
According to a press statement from the Ministry, more than 11 villages are expected to benefit from the compensation exercise, indicating that many affected people are yet to be compensated. The statement revealed:
Based on the Government Valuers’ report, full payments have been made to 301 PAPs in five villages, and the Ministry plans to pay 1,405 PAPs across 11 villages.
When asked about the other communities that are not part of the initial 450 beneficiaries who ran to the president, the Ministry of Agriculture spokesperson, Ms. Connie Acayo, stated that the Ministry would follow due process, including clear criteria and verification steps, to ensure that all affected persons are identified and fairly compensated.
“Those people told us they do not want to hear about compensation procedures, valuation, or other processes associated with compensation; they only want the money. That is, maybe, why they went to the President. However, our Ministry is transparent, and we must follow established procedures when implementing such activities,” Connie told Witness Radio.
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MEDIA FOR CHANGE NETWORK
Hidden iceberg: A new report identifies large scale industrial agriculture, livestock, and mining sectors as leading sources of attacks against land and environmental defenders worldwide.
Published
2 weeks agoon
December 15, 2025By Witness Radio team
A new global analysis report highlights a concerning rise in attacks against land and environmental defenders, aiming to inspire urgent policy and advocacy responses to this escalating violence.
The 2025 Hidden Iceberg Report reveals that nearly 2,500 non-lethal attacks against land and environmental defenders were documented across 75 countries in just two years. These attacks range from threats and surveillance to arbitrary arrests and online harassment.
The report findings by the Alliance for Land, Indigenous and Environmental Defenders (ALLIED), a global network of civil society actors that supports and protects Indigenous, Land, and Environmental Defenders, cover the period 2023-24, with Indigenous communities targeted in 1 out of every 3 cases.
According to the report, these attacks rarely make the news, yet they are often early warnings of lethal violence. Studies define lethal attacks as attacks designed to kill or cause serious harm, while non-lethal attacks aim to incapacitate or control a target temporarily.
As civic space continues to shrink worldwide, defenders and communities affected by development projects are increasingly silenced when defending their community rights or territorial land rights, which are often infringed upon by governments or project implementers.
“Every killing we document is preceded by multiple threats, intimidation attempts, and harassment, but states rarely report these cases. What we see publicly is only the tip of the iceberg.” The report mentions.
“We also saw in 2023 and 2024 that attacks against environmental concern groups expanded. Representing 10.7% of all attacks, the largest number of such attacks were registered in the United States, followed by Mexico, Uganda, and the United Kingdom.” Eva Hershaw, Global Data Lead at the International Land Coalition and Co-Chair of the ALLIED Data Working Group, revealed during the report launch.
The findings paint a stark picture where Latin America accounts for 58% of all documented non-lethal attacks, with Colombia, Guatemala, Brazil, Honduras, and Mexico emerging as persistent hotspots.
“Indigenous communities are attacked not because they are weak, but because they are powerful,” said Carla García, a legal expert from Guatemala. “They protect forests, rivers, and territories that governments and corporations want to exploit. Intimidation becomes a deliberate strategy to silence them.”
In Africa, violence against defenders takes gendered forms, with women facing online abuse, sexual violence, and social stigmatization.
“When women stand up against land grabbing or destructive projects, the attacks go beyond
threats. They target women’s dignity, their families, and their bodies. Many cases are never reported because the fear of retaliation is overwhelming,” Tawonga explained.
She adds that Environmental defenders in Africa are often brutalized by the very systems meant to protect them, making the reporting of attacks both risky and rare.
Across many African countries, environmental defenders operate in contexts characterized by state surveillance, intimidation, and harassment, with security legislation and cyber laws often used to silence them. On top of that, defenders are frequently stigmatized as anti-development or anti-investment. And this harmful narrative, usually pushed by governments and private actors, paints defenders as enemies of national progress.” She added.
One primary concern is the lack of reliable data on attacks, which should motivate policymakers and institutions to improve reporting mechanisms and foster accountability.
“This data gap is not accidental. It is the result of deep structural and systemic limitations that conceal the true scale of violence against environmental defenders here in Africa,” Tawonga explained.
The analysis identifies large‑scale industrial agriculture, livestock, and mining as the sectors most frequently targeted, guiding advocacy efforts toward these high-risk areas to enhance protective measures.
The defenders raising concerns about industrial agriculture and livestock operations were most consistently targeted. They faced the highest number of attacks, representing 29% of the total. We see that three out of every four attacks raising concerns about these business sectors were concentrated in Honduras, Colombia, Brazil, and Guatemala. After industrial agriculture and livestock, mining was the next most common sector connected with attacks.” Eva added
As the climate crisis deepens and competition over land intensifies, the report warns that attacks on environmental defenders will likely worsen unless governments, corporations, and international institutions act decisively.
The report calls on states to strengthen and sustain mechanisms for collecting and reporting data, support national human rights institutions with mandates to monitor violations, and commit to transparency regarding violence against defenders. It also urges businesses to adopt and implement public policy commitments that recognize and protect the vital role of human rights defenders.
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MEDIA FOR CHANGE NETWORK
Women’s groups demand equality in land tenure security to boost food production.
Published
2 weeks agoon
December 15, 2025
By Witness Radio team.
Women’s struggle for land rights is now a critical global issue that has garnered attention from civil society organisations, policymakers, and human rights activists. Many argue that women are often excluded from land governance, hindering economic growth.
Statistics reveal that women produce a massive amount of the world’s food, especially in developing nations, with estimates often citing 60-80% of food in developing countries and roughly half globally. Recognizing this can inspire policymakers and activists to believe in women’s vital role in food security.
Edith Nalwende, a small-scale farmer from Bugiri district, is one of the many affected by the exclusion of women from land ownership and governance.
“Somebody called me, he was desperate and needed some quick money in his land. He told me I should buy this land, and I can pay by instalments. I informed my husband that there is a good deal here. I want to pay part of that money since the person is ready to receive the instalment. The response was obvious. Why do you want to buy land? Leave that land and don’t buy it,” she revealed in an interview with a Witness Radio journalist.
Many women like Nalwende face significant barriers to land ownership and recognition. Gender stereotypes in many Ugandan and African communities often bar women from owning land.
“Because of being a woman, I was stopped by my husband from buying land. I gave up. I didn’t buy the land. So, I called the seller. But he also didn’t appreciate why I told my husband, he asked me why I had told him,” said Nalwende.
ESAFF gathered rural women to share their stories. Edith was one of them, and women farmers were empowered to secure their land rights, thereby increasing productivity and promoting economic development.
While women are pivotal to small-scale agriculture, farm labour, and daily family subsistence, they face greater difficulty than men in accessing land and productivity-enhancing inputs and services. They claim they have been sidelined in issues of land governance, land ownership, and economic development.
According to research by the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), less than 15 per cent of agricultural landholders worldwide are women, and 85 per cent are men. The most significant gender inequalities in access to land are found in North Africa and the Near East, where only around 5 per cent of all landholders are women.
Organised by the Eastern and Southern Africa Small-Scale Farmers Forum in Uganda (ESSAFF Uganda) and partners, the conference, attended by more than 40 small-scale women farmers and officials from various ministries, highlighted the critical role of women small-scale farmers in Uganda’s agriculture.
“Statistics show that women contribute the majority of agricultural labour in Uganda. Yet their contributions often remain undervalued and unsupported. Despite their central role, women continue to face systematic barriers to land ownership and control. Insecure land tenure undermines their productivity, limits their access to credit, and erodes their dignity.” Said Ms Christine Okumu, a representative from the Ministry of Gender, Labour and Social Development
She adds that, “Without secure land rights, women cannot fully invest in sustainable farming practice. Nor can they pass assets to their children. This is a fact based on all the testimonies given before us here. Unless women have that right to land, they cannot fully invest in sustainable farming practice.”
It is estimated that if women small-scale farmers had the same resources as men, their yields could increase by 20–30%, significantly boosting food security.
“Closing this gender gap could add nearly $1 trillion to global GDP and lift 45 million people from hunger. Investing in women isn’t just about fairness – it’s key to Africa’s economic and agricultural future.” According to research by FAO.
Women’s land insecurity not only affects food sovereignty but also escalates gender-based violence, exposing women to rights violations and increased vulnerability.
“Insecure land tenure exposes women to heightened risk of gender-based violence. Dispossession, forced eviction, and land grabbing often come hand in hand with intimidation, harassment, and abuse. Such acts appear on social media platforms, accompanied by hurtful messages and embarrassing pictures. I’ve seen pictures of women being chased out of their homes. And I’ve seen also pictures of women who have invested in lands, and at the end of it all, because behind them, somebody took the land from them.” Added Ms Okumu.
Unlike other years, when the conference focused on topics like women in business and leadership, this year the focus has shifted to empowering women to own land, offering a hopeful path toward stronger agricultural independence.
“We are focusing on land so that we can support as many women as possible. And also, we would want to work together with the government, which has already rolled out a program of registration of land, and we think that this is something that women can take advantage of, so that they secure their land rights, and grow healthy food, and then also increase their income.” Says Ms Nancy Mugimba, the National Coordinator for ESSAFF Uganda.
She adds, “If you don’t have your own land, your ability to grow crops, generate income, and access financial services is limited. Securing land rights enables women to produce healthy food and invest in their communities.”
Ms Christine Okumu calls for the engagement of men and cultural and religious institutions in the fight for Women’s land rights, emphasizing that collective effort can lead to meaningful progress and social cohesion.
“The Ministry has also developed a strategy for male involvement. You know, this fight, we cannot do it alone. If we can get allies, it can help us. If we get a few men who can advocate for some of these issues and open the minds of other men to see that whatever they are doing is affecting their wives in a very negative way,” she said.
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MEDIA FOR CHANGE NETWORK2 weeks agoFour hundred fifty victim families of the Oil Palm project in Buvuma are to receive compensation by this Friday – Witness Radio
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MEDIA FOR CHANGE NETWORK2 weeks agoWomen’s groups demand equality in land tenure security to boost food production.
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MEDIA FOR CHANGE NETWORK2 weeks agoTension as Project-Affected Persons demand to meet Uganda’s President over Oil Palm growing on their grabbed land.
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MEDIA FOR CHANGE NETWORK2 weeks agoHidden iceberg: A new report identifies large scale industrial agriculture, livestock, and mining sectors as leading sources of attacks against land and environmental defenders worldwide.
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SPECIAL REPORTS AND PROJECTS2 weeks agoBritain, Netherlands withdraw $2.2 billion backing for Total-led Mozambique LNG
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