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Could a U.S.–China trade war lead to a new wave of land grabs?

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By Carin Smaller, David Laborde
A trade war is looming between the United States and China. President Donald Trump has proposed tariffs on over 1,000 Chinese imports.
China has responded, saying it would impose duties on U.S. imports, including agricultural products. If they follow through, the resulting trade war would be disastrous—and not just for those two countries. What could it mean for global food security and the environment?
Let’s examine the case of soybeans, which China threatens to hit with a 25 per cent import tariff. Today, soybeans are a ubiquitous commodity in the global food chain. Seventy per cent of soy production goes to feed animals, particularly chickens, pigs and cows, as producers cater to the increased demand for meat from growing middle classes. The rest goes toward cooking oil, biodiesel, oleochemicals and other processed foods.
Agriculture and changes in land use already account for about a quarter of global greenhouse gas emissions—a new wave of investment in soybean production outside the U.S. will lead to still more clearing of land, making matters worse.
The United States is the largest producer and exporter of soybeans, while China is the largest importer, importing two thirds of all U.S. exports. China cannot meet its own soybean demand because of limited agricultural land and stagnant yields. And yet its appetite for soybeans is immense: China imports close to 100 million metric tonnes annually—equivalent to 10,000 shipping containers per day. So what might happen if soybean imports from the United States are disrupted?
Such a move could unleash a major disruption of world markets reminiscent of the runup to the 2008 food price crisis—when the prices of rice, wheat and corn nearly doubled over a two-year period.
Shifts in China’s soybean supply typically have major market consequences. In March of this year alone, China purchased a third more soybeans from Brazil than a year earlier, driving up Brazilian soybean prices. If China replaces U.S. soybean imports with imports from other countries, their prices will rise. On the flip side, the U.S. could end up with a huge surplus of soybeans, driving down domestic prices and/or leading to dumping on other markets.
Historically, this type of disruption has had long-term impacts on the agricultural sectors of affected countries: When the Nixon administration implemented an embargo on soybean exports in the early 1970s, Brazil and Argentina expanded their production to fill the gap, triggering a trend that continues today.
More recently, the 2008 food price crisis triggered a global land rush. Many food-importing countries lost faith in the ability of world markets to reliably provide for their populations, and foreign and domestic investors acquired large tracts of farmland across Africa and Asia as a hedge against future uncertainty. A U.S.–China trade war could revive this unfortunate trend. China could be forced to search for new frontiers to secure its soybean demand and protect its supply chains, leading to another wave of so-called “land grabs.”
Indeed, China’s agricultural investments abroad have been growing steadily over the past decade, from USD 300 million in 2009 to USD 3.3 billion in 2016, most of it going to Asia (see chart below). Meanwhile, the Chinese chemicals giant ChemChina recently bought Swiss agrochemical giant Syngenta for CHF 43 billion.
If China and other countries expand global soybean production, that could exacerbate the negative environmental impacts of the global soy footprint. Soybeans are already a driver of deforestation in Brazil and Argentina. The area of land in South America devoted to soy more than tripled, from 17 million to 58 million hectares, between 1990 and 2015, mainly on land converted from natural ecosystems (FAOSTAT). Agriculture and changes in land use already account for about a quarter of global greenhouse gas emissions—a new wave of investment in soybean production outside the U.S. will lead to still more clearing of land, making matters worse.
What can be done to head off disaster? First and foremost, a trade war must be averted at all costs. But there are other opportunities for action. Governments in Africa and Asia could now act on the lessons learned from the last wave of foreign land investment. Reforms have already been introduced in many countries to reform corrupt or insider-driven business practices, and better represent the interests of people and the environment. New land laws in Mali and Benin provide a durable solution to land tenure insecurity in rural communities. Laos introduced a temporary moratorium on land investments in order to conduct a comprehensive inventory of deals and improve the legal framework for foreign investment.
China cannot meet its own soybean demand because of limited agricultural land and stagnant yields
Indeed, as shown on the map below, several African countries could become the new frontier for soybean expansion, in particular in Central and Eastern Africa. This means that the new East African Community (EAC) model contract for farmland investments is highly relevant, as it strengthens the processes for managing environmental and social impacts, and for ensuring that women’s land rights are protected.
Finally, the threats posed by today’s trade tensions offer an opportunity to rethink current production and consumption patterns and reform food systems. For the sake of the environment and for global food security, meat and dairy consumption must be reduced in countries where the consumption is too high: essentially all industrialized countries. In addition, sustainable agricultural production methods such as reducing the use of chemical fertilizers and promoting the use of animal manure as natural fertilizer must be adopted. By taking such proactive steps, the world can build sustainable, more resilient food systems that can weather both the trade and climate upheavals.
Carin Smaller is Advisor on Agriculture and Investment at the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD).
Source: IISD

WITNESS RADIO MILESTONES

UNCCD COP17 kicks off in Mongolia, drawing nations together to tackle urgent issues of land, drought, and food security.

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By Witness Radio team

ULAANBAATAR, Mongolia – Over the next two weeks, the World’s spotlight is on Mongolia, where governments, environmental experts, civil society, pastoralists, and others unite for the 17th UNCCD COP to confront land degradation challenges.

The conference, starting today in Ulaanbaatar and running through August 28 under the banner “Restoring land, restoring hope,” brings delegates together to tackle land degradation, desertification, drought, sustainable land management, food security, and vital funding to revive damaged ecosystems.

This gathering comes at a critical moment as land degradation and drought threaten food supplies, water security, biodiversity, and the livelihoods of millions worldwide.

The UN Convention to Combat Desertification was established in response to land degradation, particularly in dry and drought-prone areas, and its consequences for communities and economies.

The Convention was adopted in Paris on 17 June 1994 and entered into force in December 1996. It is the first and only internationally legally binding framework to address desertification. It is based on participation, partnership, and decentralization, which form the backbone of Good Governance.

Mongolia welcomes COP17 while facing immense strain on its land and rangelands. Nearly 77 percent of its territory is degraded. Pastoralism remains the heartbeat of Mongolia’s economy and culture, making rangeland stewardship more crucial than ever.

Speaking at the opening press conference, UNCCD Executive Secretary Yasmine Fouad said Mongolia’s own experience makes it an important setting for discussions on land restoration and pastoralism.

“77% of the land of Mongolia is facing land degradation, and the economy here, with all the number of people, is really depending on the issue of rangeland,” Fouad said.

Ahead of the UNCCD event, Mongolia hosted a Pastoralism gathering. Fouad noted that the three-day global gathering brought together representatives from over 100 countries. It produced a Declaration outlining the needs and priorities of pastoralists worldwide, with a special focus on women.

“The interesting part is how seriously Mongolia took this by convening the Global Pastoralism Gathering over three days, bringing together representatives from more than 100 countries. They came out with a Declaration highlighting the needs and priorities of pastoralists around the world, with a special emphasis on women. This means that this COP, and the Convention itself, will continue to be a human-centered convention. It will continue to serve people, with women remaining at the top of that agenda.” Sher added.

According to Mongolia’s government, around 80 percent of the nation is pasture land, supporting about 60 million livestock. Finding harmony between agriculture and pastoralism is becoming more challenging.

Mongolia’s Minister of Environment and Climate Change, Sandag-Ochir Tsend, said deciding how much land to allocate to agriculture and how much to keep available for pastoralism is one of the country’s major challenges.

He explained that Mongolian herders traditionally move their livestock across different areas during the four seasons. This creates tensions over land allocation and use.

“Deciding how much land to use for agriculture and how much for rangeland is difficult. Because of this, agriculture and herding lifestyles cause conflicts,” Tsend added.

Tsend said COP17 offers an opportunity to reconsider land management amid soil degradation, climate change, and other pressures.

“We must change our approach to these issues, including government policy and finance. I see this conference as the start of a solution,” he added.

COP17’s significance stretches far beyond Mongolia, as land underpins global food production and freshwater resources and is deeply intertwined with biodiversity and climate.

Dr. Osama Ibrahim Faqeeha, Saudi Arabia’s Deputy Minister for Environment, Water and Agriculture and adviser to the COP16 presidency, said humanity’s dependence on land is much greater than is often recognized. He said about 95 percent of the World’s food comes from land, while 99.7 percent of human calories are ultimately derived from land.

“Our main focus is to raise global awareness about the importance of land. Our cities, forests, farms, food, and freshwater all depend on land, yet we have treated it as infinite. We have failed to understand the links between land, ocean, atmosphere, and climate. At COP16, we brought these connections together because degrading land undermines food and water security and drives biodiversity loss. About 60% of biodiversity loss is due to habitat loss, closely linked to land degradation,” Hon Faqeeha added.

UNCCD officials revealed that roughly 40 percent of the World’s land is degraded, impacting up to 2 billion hectares. Each year, another 100 million hectares of farms, forests, and rangelands degrade. Meanwhile, drought affects about 1.8 billion people, with farming communities bearing the brunt of the hardship.

Faqeeha called for a shift towards sustainable land management and faster restoration of degraded land.

“Many resource-related conflicts and migration are linked to drought. About 3.5 billion people are affected by land degradation, and 1.8 billion by drought. Farming communities bear eighty percent of drought impacts, and 85 percent of those affected live in low- and lower-middle-income countries. There is a significant social dimension.

“The task is huge. We cannot continue business as usual. The mission of this Convention is to transform land management. We need to shift to sustainable land management and accelerate restoration,” he added.

COP17 also arrives with unresolved issues carried over from the last UNCCD conference.

At COP16 in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, in December 2024, countries adopted resolutions and launched initiatives covering sustainable agricultural land management, food security, Indigenous peoples, civil society and drought. However, they failed to agree on a major drought decision or a multilateral agreement to address drought’s consequences.

In his welcome address to COP16 on December 2, 2024, UNCCD Secretary-General Ibrahim Thiaw had urged delegates to adopt a bold decision on drought, describing it as one of the most pervasive and disruptive environmental challenges.

The negotiations ended without this agreement, leaving the issue to be taken up at COP17 in Mongolia. Fouad told journalists that countries had already shown a willingness to return to the issue.

“The role of the COP17 presidency is to build consensus and facilitate discussion till a drought decision is gavelled,” she said.

She added that the secretariat hopes countries will agree on a drought decision that reflects the urgency and scale of the problem while providing the space and finance necessary for implementation.

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WITNESS RADIO MILESTONES

Karamoja stands on the brink, with nearly half a million people gripped by acute hunger.

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By the Witness Radio team.

Nearly half a million people in Uganda’s Karamoja sub-region are facing acute hunger as repeated climate shocks, poor harvests and environmental degradation continue to erode food production and livelihoods, according to the latest integrated food security phase classification (IPC) analysis.

The IPC assessment found that 473,000 people, nearly one in every three people assessed, experienced crisis (IPC phase 3) or worse levels of acute food insecurity between April and July 2026. Of these, about 41,000 people were classified in emergency (IPC phase 4), requiring urgent food assistance and livelihood support.

The assessment paints a grim picture: relentless dry spells, sudden floods, and waves of crop and livestock diseases have battered Karamoja, leaving families struggling to recover season after season. Soaring food prices and scarce quality farming supplies have only deepened the crisis.

The IPC also found that only 54.1 percent of households had food stocks at the time of the survey, with supplies in most districts expected to last for less than one month.

The assessment reveals that swarms of crop pests, outbreaks of livestock disease, and wildlife ravaging fields, combined with a shortage of quality seeds, have slashed agricultural yields and left countless families exposed and vulnerable.

In response to the findings, Oxfam sounded the alarm: families in Karamoja are racing through their dwindling food stores and scrambling for safe water. Prolonged drought and vanishing pastures now threaten the livestock that so many depend on for survival.

“People in Karamoja are not just running out of food; they are also running out of options. Climate shocks and long-standing inequalities, including low investment in education and water infrastructure, have steadily stripped away their ability to cope,” Said Francis Shanty Odokorach, Oxfam’s country director in Uganda.

The nutrition outlook is just as dire. The IPC foresees 122,100 children under five needing urgent treatment for acute malnutrition between March 2026 and February 2027, with 30,600 of them facing the most severe cases. An additional 8,000 pregnant and breastfeeding women are expected to need vital nutrition support during this time.

The assessment places Kaabong and Kotido districts in the critical phase of acute malnutrition, underscoring the depth of the crisis. In Kotido, relentless drought has left families desperately searching for enough to eat.

“The ground is all dry and bare. You can visibly see people, especially children, very hungry. Families have run out of food early and are now forced to skip meals. Livestock are also suffering from a lack of water and pasture,” Said Lokiru Musa Hassan, Oxfam project officer working in Napumpum sub-county.

Though the IPC predicts a slight reprieve during the August 2026 to February 2027 harvest, hope remains fragile. Around 352,000 people are still expected to endure crisis or worse, especially in Kaabong, Karenga, Kotido, and Moroto, where relentless climate shocks keep sabotaging recovery.

While acute malnutrition has dipped slightly since 2025, the IPC cautions that these hard-won gains could vanish with the next wave of extreme weather, disease, or funding gaps. Without ongoing aid and real investment in climate resilience, many families may fall even further into hunger.

To confront the crisis, Oxfam has announced a two-phase plan across five districts, delivering emergency food, cash, safe water, drought-resistant seeds, and livestock support. The organization also aims to boost climate-smart farming, water harvesting, livelihood recovery, and local early warning systems.

“This response must be shaped with communities, not simply delivered to them. Women, young people, older people and people with disabilities must be able to access assistance safely, provide feedback and influence the decisions that affect their lives,” Odokorach said.

With climate change tightening its grip on Uganda’s drylands, humanitarian agencies stress that emergency relief alone is not enough. Only lasting investments in resilient agriculture, water systems, and community-driven climate adaptation can help Karamoja escape the cycle of hunger.

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MEDIA FOR CHANGE NETWORK

Uganda moves toward a Bamboo Policy to boost environmental conservation and green growth.

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By Witness Radio team.

 

Uganda’s move to develop a national bamboo policy aims to boost environmental conservation and create green jobs, addressing the country’s urgent unemployment issues among the working class.

 

Bamboo is a critical tool in fighting climate change due to its rapid growth, high carbon sequestration capacity, and ability to produce 35% more oxygen than equivalent trees. As a fast-growing, renewable resource, it restores degraded land, provides sustainable materials that replace emission-intensive products like concrete, and offers a resilient, low-carbon bioenergy source. 

 

Bamboo’s potential is outlined in the existing National Bamboo Strategy. Still, stakeholders stress that a formal policy involving entrepreneurs, farmers, and processors is essential to remove regulatory uncertainty and foster sector growth.

 

“The strategy is a good document, but it was developed largely through desk research. It did not fully involve entrepreneurs, farmers, and processors who are already working in the bamboo industry,” said Sjaak de Blois, chairman of Bamboo Uganda, encouraging stakeholders to see their role as vital.

 

The bamboo policy is currently at an early consultative stage, with no draft yet submitted to the cabinet or parliament. Recent consultations brought together representatives from eight government ministries, private-sector bamboo actors, and development partners to begin aligning the strategy with practical regulatory needs.

 

“What we have now is the starting point,” De Blois mentioned. “The next step is to take the strategy and make it more practical, more market-driven, and more Ugandan. The next step is to move from having a plan to adopting a policy.

 

Bamboo currently falls under several regulatory frameworks, with no single authority overseeing the sector. The policy push is being driven in part by Bamboo Uganda, a membership-based organization bringing together bamboo farmers and processors, among others. The organization aims to play a coordinating role similar to that historically played by the Uganda Coffee Development Authority in the coffee sector.

 

“If you want to make a sector meaningful for a country, you need coordination. Coffee became what it is because of an institution that aligned farmers, traders, exporters, and regulators. Bamboo needs the same kind of coordination.” He said.

 

The policy process is supported by the Belgian development agency, which is funding consultations and facilitating dialogue between the government and the private sector.

Industry players say the absence of clear regulations has constrained investment despite growing demand.

“At the moment, bamboo is everywhere and nowhere at the same time. As a farmer, you talk to forestry, as a charcoal producer, you talk to energy, as a builder, you talk to works. There is no single framework that enables the industry to function.” De Blois added.

 

Supporters of the policy argue that bamboo could play a significant role in environmental conservation. Bamboo grows rapidly, regenerates after harvesting, and can be harvested annually for decades, reducing pressure on natural forests.

 

According to Global Forest Watch (GFW), Uganda lost 1.2 million hectares of tree cover between 2001 and 2024, representing a 15% decline from the 2000 baseline. Bamboo has been identified as a key species for restoration.

 

“One acre of bamboo that is harvested sustainably can prevent the destruction of hundreds of acres of natural forest,” De Blois said. “If we get this right, bamboo can help reverse deforestation rather than contribute to it.”

 

Ms. Susan Kaikara, from the Ministry of Water and Environment, emphasized bamboo’s potential to drive Uganda’s green-growth agenda.

 

“Establishing a coherent national policy framework will strengthen coordination, inspire investment, and unlock bamboo’s full potential as a pillar of Uganda’s green economy,” she said.

 

Uganda’s charcoal market alone is estimated to be worth hundreds of millions of dollars annually, much of it supplied through unsustainable wood harvesting. Industry actors say certified bamboo charcoal plantations could offer a cleaner alternative.

 

“If they allow us to certify bamboo charcoal plantations, then we can get a trade license to compete or to work together with the existing market. We will reverse deforestation. We would enter an industry of about 500,000 hectares, creating smart, green jobs. We can digitalize them to make them attractive through bamboo agroforestry. So again, those things need a policy.” He adds.

 

Bamboo is also viewed as a climate-friendly crop due to its high capacity for carbon sequestration. Its rapid growth enables it to absorb large amounts of carbon dioxide, while its extensive root system improves soil structure and increases long-term carbon storage.

 

“When you look at carbon sequestration, bamboo offers several advantages. Residues from harvested bamboo can be converted into biochar, locking carbon into the soil for long periods. When you also see the sequestration per acre compared to many other trees, it is five or six times higher. So, we sequester a lot,” De Blois said

 

Stakeholders say that if the policy process progresses as planned, bamboo could emerge as one of Uganda’s key green growth sectors within the next decade.

 

“Policy making takes time. But what is important is that we have started the conversation with all the right ministries in the room. From here, it is about taking steady, practical steps.” He concluded.

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