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Insights for African countries from the latest climate change projections

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Flooding is projected to increase in eastern Africa

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) – a body of the UN tasked with providing scientific information on climate change – has released a major new report, pulling together evidence from a wide range of current and ancient climate observations. It’s the most up-to-date understanding of climate change, bringing together the latest advances in climate science.

It is crucial that we have a good understanding of the findings as they give an indication of what our future could look like.

According to the report global warming is evident, with each of the last four decades being successively warmer than any decade that preceded it since 1850. Average precipitation on land has also increased since the mid-20th century. In addition, there is high confidence that mean sea level increased by between 0.15 and 0.25m between 1901 and 2018.

The major concern is that as warming continues, more extreme climate events, such as droughts, are projected to increase in both frequency and intensity. This warming is mainly driven by greenhouse gas emissions from human activities such as burning fossil fuels (coal, natural gas, and oil) and coal production.

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When it comes to African countries, the report projects an increase in average temperatures and hot extremes across the continent. The continent will likely experience drier conditions with an exception of the Sahara and eastern Africa.

Alarmingly, the rate of temperature increase across the continent exceeds the global average. In addition, as warming continues, the frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall events are projected to increase almost everywhere in Africa. Maritime heatwaves and sea level rises are also projected to increase along the continental shores.

Looking into the future, global warming could lead to an increase in hot extremes, including heatwaves. It could also lead to a decrease in cold extremes.

The projected dry and hot conditions will have a devastating impact on a continent where the economies of most countries, and the livelihoods of most people, are dependent on rain-fed agriculture. In fact, changes to the climate will affect almost all parts of our lives.

Regional impacts

In a scenario where global warming will reach at least 2°C by mid-21st century (as predicted by the report), southern Africa is highly likely to experience a reduction in mean precipitation (water vapour that falls, such as rain or drizzle or hail). This will adversely affect agriculture. Specifically, the region is likely to witness an increase in aridity, and droughts. We are already seeing this in Madagascar and South Africa.

This has serious implications for all sectors including agriculture, water and health. Drought would also likely reduce hydroelectric generation potential, adversely affecting energy dependent sectors. We are already seeing this at the Kariba dam which sits between Zimbabwe and Zambia.

In addition, there will be more tropical storms in the region. In southern Africa there’s been a southward shift in the occurrence of tropical cyclones. This is due to sea temperatures increasing as a result of global warming. The concern is that these events will be particularly destructive as seen in Madagascar and over Mozambique.


Read more: Rising sea temperatures are shaping tropical storms in southern Africa


In relation to eastern Africa, the report projected an increase in mean precipitation that favours agriculture. However, increases in the frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation and flooding may cause a counter effect in some areas, such as arid and semi-arid lands.

There has been some conflicting information regarding rainfall in eastern Africa. This follows observations that the general circulation models, used in preparation of IPCC reports, do not simulate the observed rainfall well over the region. Most models project increase in rainfall while observations report the opposite. This has been termed ‘the paradox of east Africa climate’. This observed shortening of rainfall season that is not captured by the models explains the paradox.

Besides rainfall, the recorded and projected temperature which is expected to increase will decrease the snow and glaciers in the region. A rise in temperatures will result in a rise in malaria cases especially in highland areas within the region.

Northern Africa is a climate change hotspot. The report anticipates with high confidence increase in temperatures in the region,causing extreme heatwaves. Projected drying will increase aridity that already begun to emerge in the region and worsen water scarcity.


Read more: A worsening water crisis in North Africa and the Middle East


Further, the situation will increase the risk of forest fires, a threat to ecosystems. As is currently seen in Algeria where, so far this year, more than 100 fires have been reported across 17 provinces, killing over 40 people.

The report also anticipated that there will be a reduction in mean wind speed over northern Africa. The wind speed is dependent on temperature and consequently atmospheric pressure changes. This will limit the region’s wind power potential, however – on a positive note – it will equally reduce dust storms that cause health impacts, such as causing and aggravating asthma, and bronchitis.

Similarly, west and central Africa are projected to record a reduction in mean precipitation and experience more agricultural and ecological droughts. All these cast a dark cloud on agriculture and water in the region.


Read more: Lagos is getting less rain, but more heavy storms. What it can do to prepare


Along the African coastlines, the relative sea-level rise is likely to contribute to an increase in the frequency and severity of coastal flooding in low-lying areas, like the recent cases in Lagos, Nigeria. This causes massive destruction to delicate coastal ecosystems and will displace communities that live in coastal towns. The sea level rise equally causes saltwater intrusion, limiting availability of fresh water.


Read more: Climate change is affecting agrarian migrant livelihoods in Ghana. This is how


Which way for Africa?

Despite the projection of decrease in mean precipitation over nearly all the regions of Africa, heavy precipitation and pluvial flooding is likely. The increase in wet extremes has far reaching effects on nearly all socioeconomic sectors, from agriculture, water, environment to infrastructure. These are some of the key sectors in socioeconomic development.

This – compounded by growing populations – gives a worrying picture of the challenges that lie ahead. This is likely to widen the existing development gap, calling for concerted effort to strengthen response mechanisms to future challenges posed by climate change.

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Ten out of sixteen Rooted in Resistance activists now face charges and have been sent to Luzira Prison after standing up against Uganda’s oil development.

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By the Witness Radio Team

Ten young members of the Rooted in Resistance Movement have been charged by a Buganda Road Court magistrate and sent to Luzira Prison after their arrest during a protest challenging Uganda’s oil projects.

On Monday morning, August 31, 2026, the activists joined more than 16 members of their youth-led movement in a bold attempt to deliver petitions to Parliament and TotalEnergies’ offices in Kampala, voicing strong opposition to Uganda’s ongoing investment in fossil fuel projects such as the East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP).

After a night in police custody, ten of the activists were brought before the Buganda Road Chief Magistrate’s Court on Tuesday, September 1.

They were charged with being a nuisance on a public road, contrary to Section 67(1)(c) of the Roads Act, Cap. 346.

The accused, Rahmah Namuddu, Dorothy Asio, Sharifah Nantongo, Sharon Shaluwatino, Nyamadri Lucky, Daniel Mugabe, Shakirah Kasoga, Isaac Akampurira, Ivan Ochola and Enock Opolot pleaded not guilty to the charges read to them.

The activists were represented by lawyers Counsel Peter Odur and Counsel Doreen Namara. The court subsequently remanded them to Luzira Prison until September 18, 2026.

The remaining six activists arrested during the protest were still being held at Wandegeya Police Station by Tuesday. They are Mukiibi Isaac, Mawanda Arafat, Mugerwa Nicholas, Opio Innocent, Friday John and Onyango Ronald.

The arrests followed a vivid demonstration in which activists, clad in orange T-shirts emblazoned with “Rooted in Resistance,” marched with banners and placards denouncing Uganda’s oil ambitions.

Among the messages displayed were “No to Oil,” “Oil is temporary, nature is permanent,” and “Uganda deserves an oil-free future.”

Rooted in Resistance, formerly known as Students Against EACOP, has become a persistent voice opposing fossil fuel expansion in Uganda, particularly targeting EACOP and the Tilenga oil project.

In a statement shared on social media, the movement emphasized its commitment to non-violence as Uganda nears oil production. The activists insisted that economic progress must not silence those who dare to question it.

The group demanded the immediate release of their fellow activists and condemned the government’s use of excessive force against peaceful demonstrators.

“We demand their unconditional release and call upon the government to refrain from further using lethal force against peaceful protesters amidst a societal climate and economic collapse in Uganda,” Rooted in Resistance said in a post on its X account.

These arrests are just the latest in a series for Rooted in Resistance, whose members have faced detention during earlier protests against Uganda’s oil ventures.

On August 10, 2026, four members of the movement were also arrested and charged with being a public nuisance, the group said.

In its latest petition, Rooted in Resistance urged Parliament to rethink what it sees as Uganda’s heavy reliance on petroleum for development.

“Rooted in Resistance calls upon Parliament to exercise its constitutional responsibility to protect the national interest and reconsider Uganda’s petroleum-dependent development model,” the statement reads.

The activists argue that their petition is based on citizens’ constitutional rights to participate in governance, express themselves and assemble peacefully, including the rights provided for under Article 38 of the Constitution.

They are urging Parliament to stop expanding oil infrastructure and to launch an open, transparent review of Uganda’s petroleum policies and agreements.

The movement also demands greater government investment in areas like agriculture, manufacturing, renewable energy, tourism, technology, education, innovation and homegrown enterprises.

The activists warn that tying Uganda’s future to petroleum extraction could trap the country in fossil fuel dependence and put communities and ecosystems at risk.

They have urged TotalEnergies to channel its investment and expertise into sectors that promise lasting benefits for Ugandans.

“We urge TotalEnergies to redirect meaningful investment and expertise towards renewable energy, sustainable agriculture, agro-processing, local manufacturing, tourism conservation, technology, skills development and youth enterprise which support livelihoods,” the group said.

This latest protest unfolds as Uganda edges nearer to commercial oil production, with major projects like TotalEnergies’ Tilenga and CNOOC’s Kingfisher set to shape the nation’s oil future.

EACOP, a 1,443-kilometer heated crude oil pipeline, is being developed to transport crude oil from Uganda’s oil fields in the Albertine region to the port of Tanga on Tanzania’s Indian Ocean coast.

The pipeline is expected to transport crude produced from Uganda’s upstream oil projects, including the Tilenga project operated by TotalEnergies.

Though the government and oil companies tout these projects as vital for Uganda’s economy, environmental and human rights activists warn of serious risks to communities, biodiversity and the environment.

Rooted in Resistance is now urging both Parliament and TotalEnergies to rethink Uganda’s current path toward petroleum expansion.

“Rooted in Resistance therefore calls upon Parliament and TotalEnergies to listen, engage and reconsider the current direction of petroleum expansion. Our demand is clear: an oil-free economy, economic freedom, environmental protection and development that leaves Uganda stronger, not more dependent, for generations to come,” the movement said in its petition.

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Civil society organizations are rallying for a robust grievance mechanism in the EAC Seed and Plant Varieties Bill.

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By the Witness Radio team

In Uganda, civil society organizations are urging lawmakers to revise the proposed East African Community Seed and Plant Varieties Bill, 2025, with a special focus on ensuring farmers have a clear path to seek justice and redress.

The organizations point out that although the proposed law prioritizes seed certification, regulation, and breeders’ rights, it leaves farmers without a clear way to seek justice when certified or commercial seeds fail and lead to losses.

This concern came to the forefront during public hearings in Uganda, where the East African Legislative Assembly (EALA) gathered input from civil society organizations and other stakeholders before the Bill’s second reading.

Mr. Lubega Jonathan, a policy analyst at SEATINI Uganda, said farmers should not only be expected to comply with requirements under the proposed law but should also have clear avenues to challenge decisions and seek redress when they suffer losses.

He said the Bill should provide mechanisms for resolving disputes involving farmers, seed companies and breeders, particularly where farmers suffer losses after purchasing seed through the formal seed system.

“At least in such scenarios, there should be a mechanism for farmers to seek justice when the seeds provided by a breeder fail to germinate,” Lubega said.

He emphasized that the issue goes beyond seed certification; it is about what happens when seeds do not perform as promised. Farmers risk losing money, missing crucial planting seasons, or facing poor harvests. Yet, the Bill remains vague on who is accountable and where farmers can turn for compensation or support.

CSOs are demanding clear guidelines on how farmers’ complaints will be addressed, which bodies will resolve disputes, whether appeals are possible, and what remedies will be available to those who incur losses.

Beyond grievance and redress, the organizations warn that the Bill’s heavy focus on certification could put up barriers for farmer-managed seed systems, especially if the process becomes expensive or bogged down in bureaucracy.

Lubega cautioned that drawn-out certification processes and hidden costs could stifle local seed systems’ ability to operate across borders, threatening the EAC’s goal of eliminating non-tariff trade barriers.

“If we do not house the farmer market seed systems or varieties, there will be a barrier to trade, especially without clarity on certification costs and procedures. The lengthy bureaucratic processes will create a non-tariff barrier, which the community is ideally working to push against. Therefore, we could consider and reduce, or if we do not reduce, we factor in the farmer-managed seed systems,” he said.

The CSOs are urging the regional framework to honor both commercial and farmer-managed seed systems, highlighting that smallholder farmers have always been at the heart of selecting, saving, exchanging, and developing seeds in their communities.

Hakim Baliraine, National Chairman of the Eastern and Southern Africa Smallholder Farmers Forum (ESAFF-Uganda), said farmers should be recognized as important actors in seed development rather than being treated primarily as consumers of commercial seed.

“We want the law to define farm-managed seed systems, land races, community seed banks and farmers’ rights because this bill ties breeders to commercial seed production, forgetting that we, the small-scale farmers, have been the original breeders,” Baliraine said.

He further called for smallholder farmers to have a stronger voice in decisions about seed registration and regulation.

“Seed is tied to very many things, especially in Uganda. Seed is about our culture and inheritance, and therefore we shouldn’t look at it only for profit because, for us, seed is life and it’s part of us. That’s why we need to be at the decision-making table to see who is registering on this seed so we also give our input,” he said.

The organizations stress that acknowledging these systems is vital, as farmers still save, exchange, and share seeds. Community seed banks and indigenous varieties, in turn, are pillars of food security and biodiversity.

Agnes Kirabo, Executive Director of the Food Rights Alliance, said the debate should also address the broader challenges farmers face in accessing quality seed, including counterfeiting and the sale of grain as seed.

“The truth is that in our farming and agri-food systems in Africa and Uganda, farmers and consumers are constrained in accessing quality seeds because there is a lot of counterfeiting and trading in grain as seed. This impacts the productivity and investments of farmers, and this is a problem that is being addressed in the background of this instrument,” Kirabo said.

As a result, CSOs are urging that the final law strike a balance between regulating the seed sector and giving greater weight to farmers’ rights, with accessible ways for them to resolve disputes.

They are calling for the Bill to spell out exactly how complaints involving seed producers, breeders, and traders will be handled, who will have the authority to resolve them, and what options farmers have when they experience losses.

They also insist that farmers deserve a meaningful seat at the table in decisions on seed registration and regulation, instead of being sidelined by rules made solely for the commercial sector.

The EAC Seed and Plant Varieties Bill, 2025 seeks to establish a harmonized regional framework for the regulation, testing, certification and marketing of seeds, while providing for the protection of plant breeders’ rights across the East African Community.

Public hearings where stakeholders submitted their views and recommendations on the Bill have now been concluded across the EAC partner states.

The submissions are expected to inform the East African Legislative Assembly’s report before the Bill proceeds to its second reading.

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Breaking: Sixteen Rooted in Resistance activists arrested and detained as they boldly protested Uganda’s oil ambitions.

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By the Witness Radio team

In Kampala, police detained 16 young environmental activists from the Rooted in Resistance Movement as they attempted to deliver petitions to Parliament and TotalEnergies, challenging Uganda’s ongoing push for oil production and infrastructure.

The arrests unfolded on Monday morning, August 31, 2026, as the activists split into two determined groups: ten were apprehended near Parliament, while six others were arrested near the TotalEnergies offices in Kampala.

Six activists now sit in Wandegeya Police Station, while the remaining ten are held at Central Police Station (CPS) Kampala, according to group leader Maktum Kajubi.

With these latest arrests, nearly 20 Rooted in Resistance activists have been detained in under a month, the group reports.

On August 10, authorities arrested four other members of the group and charged them with being a public nuisance.

The young protesters carried bright orange banners and placards, their messages ringing out: “No to Oil,” “Oil is temporary, nature is permanent,” and “Uganda deserves an oil-free future.”

Those arrested include Mukiibi Isaac, Mawanda Arafat, Mugerwa Nicholas, Opio Innocent, Friday John and Onyango Ronald, among others.

Rooted in Resistance, once called Students Against EACOP, is a Ugandan youth-led movement fiercely opposing fossil fuel projects like the East African Crude Oil Pipeline—their vision: a sustainable, oil-free, people-first economy.

These latest arrests come as activists ramp up their campaign, challenging Uganda’s deepening reliance on petroleum extraction.

In a press statement seen by Witness Radio, the group called on Parliament to reconsider what it described as Uganda’s petroleum-dependent development model.

“Rooted in Resistance calls upon Parliament to exercise its constitutional responsibility to protect the national interest and reconsider Uganda’s petroleum-dependent development model,” the statement reads.

The activists emphasized that their petition rests on citizens’ constitutional rights to participate in governance, express themselves, and assemble peacefully, as outlined in Article 38.

They urge Parliament to freeze any further oil infrastructure expansion and transparently review Uganda’s petroleum policies and agreements.

The group also calls for national investment to be channeled into agriculture, manufacturing, renewable energy, tourism, technology, education, innovation, and homegrown enterprises.

Activists insist Uganda’s economic future should break free from petroleum, pointing to other sectors that promise broader and longer-lasting opportunities for all citizens.

They urge TotalEnergies to rethink its role in oil projects and instead invest its resources and expertise in sectors that could deliver lasting benefits for Ugandans.

“We urge TotalEnergies to redirect meaningful investment and expertise towards renewable energy, sustainable agriculture, agro-processing, local manufacturing, tourism conservation, technology, skills development and youth enterprise which support livelihoods,” the group said.

The activists are pressing Parliament to put long-term national interests and intergenerational justice at the heart of Uganda’s economic planning.

“The future of Uganda must not be determined by what lies beneath our soil when the country’s greatest resource is the people who live upon it,” the statement says.

EACOP is a 1,443-kilometer heated crude oil pipeline being developed to transport crude oil from Uganda’s oil fields in the Albertine region to the port of Tanga on Tanzania’s Indian Ocean coast.

The pipeline will transport crude produced from Uganda’s upstream oil projects, including TotalEnergies’ Tilenga project in the Lake Albert region.

To the activists, the pipeline is far more than just infrastructure. They warn that ongoing oil investment could trap Uganda in fossil fuel dependency and expose communities and ecosystems to grave environmental and social dangers.

Now, the movement is urging both Parliament and TotalEnergies to rethink Uganda’s current path.

“Rooted in Resistance therefore calls upon Parliament and TotalEnergies to listen, engage and reconsider the current direction of petroleum expansion. Our demand is clear: an oil-free economy, economic freedom, environmental protection and development that leaves Uganda stronger, not more dependent, for generations to come,” the movement adds in their petition.

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