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Insights for African countries from the latest climate change projections
Published
5 years agoon

Flooding is projected to increase in eastern Africa
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) – a body of the UN tasked with providing scientific information on climate change – has released a major new report, pulling together evidence from a wide range of current and ancient climate observations. It’s the most up-to-date understanding of climate change, bringing together the latest advances in climate science.
It is crucial that we have a good understanding of the findings as they give an indication of what our future could look like.
According to the report global warming is evident, with each of the last four decades being successively warmer than any decade that preceded it since 1850. Average precipitation on land has also increased since the mid-20th century. In addition, there is high confidence that mean sea level increased by between 0.15 and 0.25m between 1901 and 2018.
The major concern is that as warming continues, more extreme climate events, such as droughts, are projected to increase in both frequency and intensity. This warming is mainly driven by greenhouse gas emissions from human activities such as burning fossil fuels (coal, natural gas, and oil) and coal production.
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When it comes to African countries, the report projects an increase in average temperatures and hot extremes across the continent. The continent will likely experience drier conditions with an exception of the Sahara and eastern Africa.
Alarmingly, the rate of temperature increase across the continent exceeds the global average. In addition, as warming continues, the frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall events are projected to increase almost everywhere in Africa. Maritime heatwaves and sea level rises are also projected to increase along the continental shores.
Looking into the future, global warming could lead to an increase in hot extremes, including heatwaves. It could also lead to a decrease in cold extremes.
The projected dry and hot conditions will have a devastating impact on a continent where the economies of most countries, and the livelihoods of most people, are dependent on rain-fed agriculture. In fact, changes to the climate will affect almost all parts of our lives.
Regional impacts
In a scenario where global warming will reach at least 2°C by mid-21st century (as predicted by the report), southern Africa is highly likely to experience a reduction in mean precipitation (water vapour that falls, such as rain or drizzle or hail). This will adversely affect agriculture. Specifically, the region is likely to witness an increase in aridity, and droughts. We are already seeing this in Madagascar and South Africa.
This has serious implications for all sectors including agriculture, water and health. Drought would also likely reduce hydroelectric generation potential, adversely affecting energy dependent sectors. We are already seeing this at the Kariba dam which sits between Zimbabwe and Zambia.
In addition, there will be more tropical storms in the region. In southern Africa there’s been a southward shift in the occurrence of tropical cyclones. This is due to sea temperatures increasing as a result of global warming. The concern is that these events will be particularly destructive as seen in Madagascar and over Mozambique.
Read more: Rising sea temperatures are shaping tropical storms in southern Africa
In relation to eastern Africa, the report projected an increase in mean precipitation that favours agriculture. However, increases in the frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation and flooding may cause a counter effect in some areas, such as arid and semi-arid lands.
There has been some conflicting information regarding rainfall in eastern Africa. This follows observations that the general circulation models, used in preparation of IPCC reports, do not simulate the observed rainfall well over the region. Most models project increase in rainfall while observations report the opposite. This has been termed ‘the paradox of east Africa climate’. This observed shortening of rainfall season that is not captured by the models explains the paradox.
Besides rainfall, the recorded and projected temperature which is expected to increase will decrease the snow and glaciers in the region. A rise in temperatures will result in a rise in malaria cases especially in highland areas within the region.
Northern Africa is a climate change hotspot. The report anticipates with high confidence increase in temperatures in the region,causing extreme heatwaves. Projected drying will increase aridity that already begun to emerge in the region and worsen water scarcity.
Read more: A worsening water crisis in North Africa and the Middle East
Further, the situation will increase the risk of forest fires, a threat to ecosystems. As is currently seen in Algeria where, so far this year, more than 100 fires have been reported across 17 provinces, killing over 40 people.
The report also anticipated that there will be a reduction in mean wind speed over northern Africa. The wind speed is dependent on temperature and consequently atmospheric pressure changes. This will limit the region’s wind power potential, however – on a positive note – it will equally reduce dust storms that cause health impacts, such as causing and aggravating asthma, and bronchitis.
Similarly, west and central Africa are projected to record a reduction in mean precipitation and experience more agricultural and ecological droughts. All these cast a dark cloud on agriculture and water in the region.
Read more: Lagos is getting less rain, but more heavy storms. What it can do to prepare
Along the African coastlines, the relative sea-level rise is likely to contribute to an increase in the frequency and severity of coastal flooding in low-lying areas, like the recent cases in Lagos, Nigeria. This causes massive destruction to delicate coastal ecosystems and will displace communities that live in coastal towns. The sea level rise equally causes saltwater intrusion, limiting availability of fresh water.
Read more: Climate change is affecting agrarian migrant livelihoods in Ghana. This is how
Which way for Africa?
Despite the projection of decrease in mean precipitation over nearly all the regions of Africa, heavy precipitation and pluvial flooding is likely. The increase in wet extremes has far reaching effects on nearly all socioeconomic sectors, from agriculture, water, environment to infrastructure. These are some of the key sectors in socioeconomic development.
This – compounded by growing populations – gives a worrying picture of the challenges that lie ahead. This is likely to widen the existing development gap, calling for concerted effort to strengthen response mechanisms to future challenges posed by climate change.
Original Source: The conversation
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The Fight for Climate Justice: African Women at the Forefront
Published
1 day agoon
September 23, 2026
By the Witness Radio Team.
Across Africa, women are the backbone of food systems, households, and rural economies. Yet the land, water, and natural resources they rely on face growing threats from climate change and relentless development.
According to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), 76 percent of working women in sub-Saharan Africa are employed in agrifood systems, the largest share of any region in the world. In rural areas, women are four times more likely than men to engage in off-farm work. Their contribution goes beyond paid employment to unpaid activities like fetching water, caring for children and older people, and supporting household food security.
As development projects multiply and droughts, floods, land degradation, rising temperatures, and shifting rainfall patterns worsen, the foundations of these livelihoods are becoming alarmingly fragile.
For millions across Africa, climate change is not just an environmental concern. It is a daily struggle for food, land, water, income, health, and survival.
Yet women are not simply bearing the brunt of these impacts. Across the continent, they are mobilizing, crafting their own solutions, and demanding a seat at the table where decisions are made.
From 5–8 October 2026, more than 75 women community leaders, activists, civil society organizations and allies from across West and Central Africa will gather in Yaoundé, Cameroon, for the fourth regional Women’s Climate Assembly (WCA).
Co-hosted by Green Development Advocates, WoMin African Alliance, and partners, the event will unite women in their fight against exploitative industries and misleading climate solutions. Under the banner “Our lands, our voices: African women united for climate justice and reparations,” the Assembly aims to connect struggles over land, forests, water, seeds, food, and natural resources into a powerful movement for climate justice.
This gathering seeks to fortify a Pan-African ecofeminist movement, nurture women’s leadership, forge collective strategies for climate justice, defend food sovereignty and sustainable resource management, and amplify demands for climate reparations.
It will also open space for women to share grassroots solutions, from seed conservation and mangrove stewardship to processing natural products and safeguarding traditional ecological wisdom.
Bela Marie Victorine, a participant from Cameroon, says the Assembly offers women from different countries an opportunity to learn from the experiences of communities affected by major development projects.
“The Women’s Climate Assembly taking place in Cameroon will allow women from other countries to experience firsthand the realities of Cameroonian women’s lives impacted by major projects and how they overcome these challenges.”
The Assembly takes place in Cameroon, where communities have long faced the pressures of large-scale land grabs and sprawling industrial oil palm plantations.
Since the late 2000s, the Cameroonian government has supported the expansion of industrial oil palm cultivation as part of efforts to promote investment, employment and economic growth.
For rural communities where most arable land has been handed over to agricultural industries, these developments bring profound consequences. The loss of land threatens livelihoods and the cultural, social, and political bonds tied to their territories, while raising serious environmental concerns.
Several petitions to the Cameroonian government have reported concerns about the effects of industrial oil palm expansion on women, including abuse, sexual harassment, persecution, and destruction of livelihoods. These effects reach far beyond plantations. Across Africa, communities are grappling with large-scale mining, oil and gas projects, and other forms of resource extraction. For those whose lives depend on land, forests, and water, these projects add new burdens to communities already struggling with climate upheaval.
In Africa, climate impacts are already being felt. The World Meteorological Organization’s State of the Climate in Africa 2025 reported that climate- and weather-related hazards affected at least 13 million people. It caused more than 3,000 reported deaths across Africa in 2025.
The Assembly’s organizers challenge who should bear the financial and social burdens of the climate crisis. They insist African communities must not pay for a disaster they did little to cause. They call for climate finance that delivers real resources for loss and damage, adaptation, ecosystem restoration, and community-driven alternatives. This builds on the legacy of previous gatherings in Nigeria and Senegal. Organizers now envision transforming this platform into a lasting space for action at local, national, subregional, and Pan-African levels.
The goal is to ensure women on the front lines of climate and environmental struggles have a lasting space to organize, share experiences, and shape the climate conversation. The Assembly will feature discussions on the climate crisis and women’s resistance, food sovereignty and seed protection, defending the Congo Basin forests, feminist advocacy, climate debt and reparations, and the expansion of oil and gas.
The Assembly will also feature hands-on education and practical exchanges on seed conservation, mangrove management, processing natural products, and preserving traditional ecological wisdom.
According to Abbie Freeman from Liberia, bringing these lived experiences into climate decision-making is central to the Assembly.
“Participating in the Women’s Climate Assembly gives me a platform to share my community’s experiences and learn from other African women. I believe our voices and lived experiences must be part of climate decisions.” She added.
The Yaoundé gathering is not just about recording the impacts of climate change. It is about building connections among women facing diverse environmental and economic pressures and creating collective strategies for land, livelihoods, and natural resources.
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Young people and agriculture: Step into the world of Ugandan NGO ESAFF, where a new generation in schools is being inspired to reimagine farming, celebrate wholesome food, and become passionate advocates for food sovereignty.
Published
3 days agoon
September 22, 2026
By the Witness Radio team
On September 17th, 2026, the Witness Radio team visited Namugongo Kyoto Foyers de Charite in Kampala, Uganda, where the grounds buzzed with excitement as schools set up camp. Pupils and students were passionately rehearsing for the grand finale of the Agroecology Poem Writing Competition, an event brought to life by ESAFF Uganda.
ESAFF believes that blending poetry, agroecology, and lessons on healthy food into school life helps students rekindle their bond with agriculture. This raises a bigger question: can Uganda ignite a passion in its youth to see farming as more than a traditional occupation, especially when agriculture pulses at the heart of the nation’s food system and sustains millions? All too often, the image of farming presented to young people misses the exciting opportunities and innovations transforming the field.
ESAFF observes that many still view agriculture as a last resort, missing its vital role as the backbone of most Ugandans’ livelihoods. Transforming how young people connect with farming begins by redefining what agriculture truly represents.
Fueled by this vision, ESAFF Uganda launched Agroecology Clubs in schools, inviting students to dive into sustainable food production, nurture soil health, celebrate biodiversity, and master the art of caring for the earth’s resources.
According to ESAFF Uganda, 245 poems were submitted before finalists from different parts of the country gathered for the national competition.
Among the sea of eager competitors from every corner of the country, one student shone brightly: Ssendawula Mesach, a Primary Six pupil from Lisa Junior School in Mukono district. Rather than gripping a hoe or tending a garden, he clutched a poem he had lovingly crafted, refined, and memorized over weeks of dedication.
For Ssendawula, the competition was more than a personal test; it was a chance to explore a topic blossoming in schools: the story of food’s journey from farm to table, agriculture’s impact on the environment, and the hope sustainable farming brings for tomorrow.
Before being crowned winner of the primary school category, Ssendawula spoke about the countless hours he poured into practice, encouraging his peers to pour their passion into future competitions. Meanwhile, Doreen Anzoa of St. Mary Asumpta Girls in Adjumani claimed victory in the secondary category.
This year’s competition celebrated the theme “Agroecology in Action: Promoting Healthy School Diets,” intertwining agriculture, nutrition, and environmental stewardship in the lively tapestry of school life.
“The poetry competition offers another way of bringing those ideas into the classroom. Rather than simply teaching learners about agriculture, it allows them to interpret and communicate what they are learning in their own words,” Nancy Mugimba, ESAFF Uganda’s National Coordinator, said. She added that involving young people is important to improve their knowledge about sustainable food production and ensure environmental protection is passed from one generation to the next.
“The young generation is needed because we need all ages to steward agroecology. It should not disappear with our forefathers,” Mugimba says.
She also challenges the perception that agroecology is primitive, arguing that indigenous seeds and local knowledge remain important to sustainable food production.
“Many people think that agroecology is primitive, but I beg to differ,” she says. “It is viewed as primitive because it seems like we are trying to keep things that everybody is trying to throw away, for example, indigenous seeds.”
According to Mugimba, the poetry competition is not simply about writing or winning. It encourages learners to think about the food they eat, where it comes from, and the relationship between farming and the environment.
“The poem is just an innovative way of helping the students to communicate their ideas on how best they understand agroecology and its benefits to the environment,” she says.
Government officials at the competition also wrestled with how young people perceive agriculture today.
Sande Bob George, the Ministry of Agriculture, Animal Industry and Fisheries’ National Focal Point Person for Organic Agriculture and Agroecology, said students’ poems and demonstrations reflected a generational shift in how agriculture can be understood, away from seeing it as punishment and towards viewing it as a source of livelihood, income and technology.
This shift is crucial in a country where agriculture anchors both livelihoods and food security. Young people are now urged to explore a growing spectrum of careers. Agriculture stands as the backbone of national development, employing over 70 percent of the population, most of whom live in rural areas, according to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).
Mr. Hakim Baliraine, the National Chairperson of ESAFF Uganda, says the competition should therefore not be reduced to an extracurricular activity or a contest for trophies.
“This poem competition is not just for competition, but to widen and ensure we understand our food system and open our eyes to find solutions,” Baliraine said.
The national competition united over 30 school representatives, teachers, patrons, agroecology champions, and experts from districts such as Gulu, Fort Portal, Adjumani, Apac, Namisindwa, Mityana, and beyond.
The competition has grown remarkably since its inception. ESAFF Uganda shared that the Schools’ Agroecology Poem Writing Competition began in 2023 in Mbale with 10 participating schools. The second edition, launched in Mityana, drew 1,023 students from 32 institutions, including 18 secondary and 14 primary schools.
By the third edition, 41 schools joined in, with 19 secondary and 22 primary schools contributing over 570 poems.
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Alert: Land degradation is emerging as a pressing threat to global security.
Published
3 days agoon
September 22, 2026
Seated is former President of Finland and UNCCD Land Ambassador Tarja Halonen. Standing from left are BSSS President Prof. Paul Hallett, BSSS Executive Director Andrew Morris, and UNCCD CSO Panel Representative Sopiko Babalashvili.
By Witness Radio and British Society of Soil Science (BSSS) teams.
As land degradation spreads globally, its impacts reach beyond the environment, affecting food security, livelihoods, water access, migration, and political stability. The health of our land is becoming a central pillar of global security.
For decades, international security has been framed by borders, military power, and political conflict. Beneath these visible forces lies a quieter foundation: the land itself, which grows our food, supports livelihoods, stores water, and sustains communities.
As land suffers from unsustainable use, drought, and climate pressures, the fallout spreads beyond environmental harm into the economic and social fabric that determines whether communities remain safe and stable.
This connection was brought into sharp focus at the 17th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification, UNCCD COP17, held in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia. Governments, scientists, Indigenous peoples, pastoralists, civil society organizations, and young people gathered under the theme “Restoring Land, Restoring Hope.”
Though the spotlight was on desertification, drought, and land degradation, participants voiced concerns about a broader crisis involving food systems, water resources, livelihoods, migration, and community stability.
For Rico Rau, Global Focal Point of the UNCCD Youth Caucus, the conventional understanding of security does not capture these realities because access to food and water is fundamental to human survival.
“Security is often defined as war, weapons and conflict,” Rau says, arguing that the ability of societies to provide food and water should be considered part of the same conversation.
His perspective includes land degradation in a broader definition of security, showing how the slow unraveling of natural systems erodes the economic and social bedrock supporting stability.
The consequences are already unfolding in regions where environmental decline collides with poverty, climate stress, and fierce competition for natural resources.
Hindou Oumarou Ibrahim, a Chadian environmental activist, geographer, and advocate for Indigenous peoples, points to the Lake Chad region as an example of how ecosystem changes can affect communities whose livelihoods depend directly on land and water.
Lake Chad, which covered roughly 25,000 square kilometers around 1960, has dramatically shrunk. However, the lake fluctuates significantly with rainfall and seasonal hydrological conditions.
Ibrahim says pressure on water and other natural resources has increased competition between communities and countries sharing the basin. At the same time, landscape degradation represents a deeper loss for Indigenous communities whose cultures and livelihoods are tied to the ecosystem.
“Desertification is not only about the land,” Ibrahim says, describing it as a threat to people and the places they call home. “When ecosystems deteriorate, communities can lose access to farming areas, grazing land, water and other resources, creating economic pressures that can eventually contribute to competition, displacement and conflict.” Ibrahim adds.
The link between environmental decline and insecurity does not mean every drought or drop in soil fertility sparks conflict. Instead, ongoing degradation strips away economic and ecological shields that help communities weather storms, leaving them exposed when drought, hunger, poverty, or political turmoil strike together.
This reality hits hardest where farming and livestock underpin family incomes and food supplies. As fertile land dwindles, farmers face shrinking harvests and incomes, while pastoralists must travel farther for pasture and water, increasing pressure on neighboring communities and traditional grazing paths.
The world’s reliance on productive land cannot be overstated, especially as swelling populations and climate change heap even more strain on fragile food systems.
Dr. Karen Daly, a soil scientist and environmental soils and land-use researcher, says the role of soil is increasingly being understood as extending far beyond supporting crop production. She says scientists are paying greater attention to its ability to regulate water, support biodiversity, store carbon, and sustain essential ecosystem functions.
“Land is where food is grown. Healthy soils retain and filter water, support vegetation, and contribute to agricultural resilience. In contrast, degraded soils become less capable of these functions when communities face more frequent climate stresses,” she says.
Figures from COP17 showed that more than 95 percent of food depends on productive land and over a third of the world’s land is degraded. Another estimate cited about 3.2 billion people affected by land degradation.
These numbers reveal why land degradation is not just an environmental issue, but a challenge that reaches deep into the economic and social well-being of entire populations.
A degraded landscape may start as an environmental concern, then become an agricultural crisis, a threat to livelihoods, and finally a social or political emergency when communities can no longer survive on dwindling resources.
Tarja Halonen, former President of Finland and a UNCCD Land Ambassador, connects these environmental pressures to the wider issue of migration and human security.
She acknowledges movement has always been part of human history. Still, she argues people should not be forced from their homes when degraded environmental conditions make it impossible to maintain livelihoods.
Her view expands land restoration beyond environmental protection. Reviving degraded land helps communities keep food on the table, safeguard natural resources, and hold onto places their families have called home for generations.
The link between land and migration is crucial where environmental stress meets poverty, conflict, and limited economic prospects. Land degradation may not be the only reason people leave, but it can tip the balance and drive vulnerable communities to move.
Restoring degraded land also means asking who holds control and whether those who rely on it feel secure enough to invest in its future.
Juliane Wiesenhütter, Team Leader at GIZ, argues that land rights are fundamental to sustainable land management because farmers and communities are less likely to invest long-term in conservation when they are uncertain about future land access.
“If we want people to invest also in land and care for the land they depend on, they need secure rights. So, this is also a very cross-cutting aspect in our work. And also, here at the conference, we have a land tenure decision. Land rights are therefore not a side issue. They are a fundamental part of sustainable land and natural resource management,” she said.
Her perspective puts land governance on equal footing with soil science and environmental policy, making it a cornerstone of true restoration.
These global challenges hit home in Uganda, where land is the heartbeat of agriculture, rural life, investment, and food security. Restoration efforts that focus only on technical fixes and ignore tenure security, land access, and community voices risk missing the realities of those who care for these landscapes.
Land rights can determine whether restoration becomes a long-term investment or a short-lived project. “Where communities have secure rights and control over their resources, they have greater incentive to protect soils, manage vegetation, invest in sustainable agriculture, and maintain ecological functions their livelihoods depend on.”
The discussions at COP17 challenged the idea that solutions to land degradation must come mainly from governments and scientists. Indigenous peoples and local communities carry generations of wisdom about soils, plants, water, seasons, and ecosystems. Many participants insisted modern restoration must include this knowledge.
Ibrahim described traditional ecological knowledge within her own community, including the importance of particular trees and plants in maintaining ecosystems and restoring degraded lands. She contends that true restoration is about more than counting trees; the choice of species, the state of the land, and the intricate ties among ecosystem elements all shape whether restoration will last.
“We should involve the local communities because we are the guardians of the land. You cannot talk about our home without us. We are the ones who know how to protect it, how to restore it.” She added.
For communities whose lives, cultures, and identities are rooted in specific landscapes, participation goes beyond a seat at international conferences. It is about whether those most affected by environmental choices have a real voice in shaping solutions. “So, if you want a full solution, our voices must be at the tables,” she added.
This principle also applies to pastoralists, whose stewardship of rangelands drew new attention at COP17. Rangelands cover vast areas and sustain hundreds of millions. Pastoralists’ mobility lets livestock adapt to shifting conditions and allows the land time to recover.
Mariana Kapowich-Solomon, a soil scientist and land-degradation expert who has worked with FAO and UNDP, argues scientific knowledge has little value if it remains distant from people experiencing land degradation.
“Science has to touch the ground,” she says, emphasizing the need for research to reach farmers and communities and respond to each country’s conditions and priorities.
In her view, science should point to practical solutions people can use, not drift from the gritty realities of degraded landscapes.
Andrew Morris, Executive Director of the BSSS and the Western European Civil Society Organization (CSO) panel representative of the UNCCD, says COP17 marked growing recognition of soils and land restoration as strategic priorities, rather than issues confined to the environmental agenda, adding that one of the most important developments was the stronger integration of scientific evidence into policy discussions.
“This is essential, if we’re going to get sensible policies and create lasting change.” Morris said, describing the development “as a sign that the global conversation around land is becoming more mature, more ambitious and more action-oriented.”
“The community that came together at COP was amazing,” he says. “It was a real mix of cultures, religions, and ethnicities that, in the main, put aside domestic politics, ideals of nationhood and memories of previous disagreements to unite and deliver a clear and sober voice that resonates globally. We are in this together; we have the solutions, we need to unite and be given the vehicle and opportunity to enact lasting change,” he says.
As land degradation collides with climate stress, poverty, hunger, and migration, the health of our planet’s land is taking center stage in the global security conversation.
This article was produced through a partnership between Witness Radio and the British Society of Soil Science (BSSS), based on voices and recordings from the BSSS Soil Matters podcast recorded during the UNCCD COP17 in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia.
Learn more about the British Society of Soil Science: soils.org.uk
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