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Trees for Global Benefits: “Climate neutral” burgers in Sweden. Starvation in Uganda
Published
8 months agoon
The Swedish fast food chain Max Burgers AB claims to have had more than three million trees planted in the tropics. “Planting trees is an effective way to remove carbon dioxide,” the company states on its website. “Since 2018, MAX has been funding trees that capture the equivalent of 110% of our entire value chain’s greenhouse gas emissions.”
But a new investigation by Staffan Lindberg in the Swedish newspaper Aftonbladet reveals that some of the farmers in Uganda who planted trees for Max Burgers carbon credits are now cutting down the trees and making them into charcoal. The farmers faced starvation, because the trees were planted on their farmland.
Max Burgers buys carbon credits from a project in Uganda called Trees for Global Benefits, that has been running since 2003. The project is managed by a Ugandan organisation called Ecotrust.
Under the scheme, farmers plant trees on their land and receive income from the sales of carbon credits. It is certified under the Plan Vivo standard.
According to the Plan Vivo website,
The project operates as a market-based solution that reduces unsustainable exploitation of forest resources and the decline of ecosystem quality, while diversifying and increasing incomes for rural farmers and their families.
In 2013, the project won an award from SEED, which was founded by UNEP, UNDP, and IUCN. In a video produced by SEED, Pauline Nantongo Kalunda, the executive director of Ecotrust, says, “The main objective of this enterprise is to combine carbon sequestration activity with livelihoods improvements.”
Kalunda is on the Board of Trustees of Plan Vivo.
The hunger forest
Lindberg calls the Ecotrust project the “hunger forest”. Ecotrust persuaded farmers to plant trees on land where they grew crops. But the farmers had only small areas of land. When the trees took over the land, the farmers could no longer grow food for their families.
The Aftonbladet investigation is not the first critique of the Trees for Global Benefits project. In 2017, Elina Andersson and Wim Carton from Lund University wrote a study that highlights problems with the project. “Our study shows that there is widespread confusion among farmers about what the project is basically about,” Andersson and Carton write.
Farmers did not know who was buying the carbon credits.
One farmer said,
They do not have many benefits, these carbon trees. They are not easily grown and they take time. I had to replace so many of them because they dried out. They started to dry from the top and then they refused to grow. I wouldn’t plant these trees again, but rather eucalyptus and maybe some fruit trees.
Farmers had to pay the full cost of replacing damaged and dead trees, regardless of whether the trees were damaged by fire, vandalism, insects, or wild animals.
Andersson and Carton write about the “flawed basis on which the local population had the opportunity to make informed decisions regarding participation” in the tree planting project.
Contracts were written in English which few of the villagers speak.
Almost all the farmers they spoke to said they did not know how much compensation they would receive from the project. One farmer told Andersson and Carton that,
People planted trees before they knew how much they would get. And they did not negotiate the price with the buyers. So they don’t know if they got all their money, or if they just got half of it. If you tell prices in terms of percentage, how can an old man understand? They are not giving the correct information. transparency is lacking. Most people don’t even know what they are selling.
Lack of land is a major problem in the project area, Andersson and Carton note, particularly among the poorest households.
“It cannot be ruled out that,” they write, “through the project, poor small farmers risk being locked into a type of land use for a long time that reduces their ability to adapt to deal with temporary crises as well as long-term changes, which in the worst case can mean long-term negative effects on their life situation.”
They also note that payments from Ecotrust are often greatly delayed or not received at all.
In 2019, an article in the Swedish newspaper Dagens Nyheter took a critical look at the Trees for Global Benefits project.
And in 2022, Global Forest Coalition published a report about the project with the title, “A case study on the failures of carbon offsetting”. The researchers spoke to more than 100 community members. They write that,
The clear message from all communities was that the project was not delivering its promised benefits, and participants were growing increasingly bitter and desperate.
The lead author of the report was David Kureeba, a programme officer with Friends of the Earth Uganda.
The report concludes that the Trees for Global Benefits project “is one of a growing number of global greenwashing exercises that are not only failing to reduce the amount of carbon being released into the atmosphere but also inflicting adverse environmental, social, and economic impacts on the local communities involved”.
“A chance to earn money”
Aftenbladet’s journalist Staffan Lindberg and photographer Niclas Hammarström travel to the project area in Uganda. There they find farmers cutting down the trees, to sell them as charcoal.
A farmer called Samuel Byarugaba tells Lindberg that a man from Ecotrust turned up eight years ago. He said Ecotrust could offer the family a chance to earn money.
Samuel signed the contract despite having only two acres of land, and the fact that all his land was being used to grow food. He didn’t receive a copy of the contract. The man from Ecotrust later showed him how to plant the trees, seven metres apart. That was the only education he received about tree planting.
After three years, the trees formed a canopy over the food crops. The trees took the light, the water, and the nutrients. Samuel’s sweet potatoes and bananas died. Nothing could grow under the trees. Samuel, his wife, and 15 children and grandchildren were without food.
He tells Lindberg,
“I used to be something called a model farmer. People came to me to learn about farming and I was proud to show our farm. We had enough food to eat our fill and were able to sell the excess. Now everything disappeared.”
The first payment from Ecotrust should have come in the first year. When it arrived, one year later, it was equivalent to a little more than US$100. Enough for a couple of weeks of food.
Samuel has only received two more payments of the same amount since then. He has been forced to beg from relatives for his family to survive.
Lindberg reports that now he’s cutting all the trees down. He will plant bananas and sweet potatoes again.
“My children have no food”
Rosset Kyampaire is a widow, and mother of four. She has only one acre of land. Ecotrust still persuaded her to sign the contract.
She planted 200 trees on her land. After two years, the beans and cassava withered. After three years, she had no harvest at all.
After eight years, she has received no money from Ecotrust. Instead she got excuses: “This is how white people work,” and “Have patience,” and “It will arrive later this year.”
To survive, she has to work as a day labourer on other people’s farms. She earns less than US$1.5 a day. It’s not enough.
“I am so stressed,” Rosset tells Lindberg. “My children have no food.”
She has already started cutting down the trees. “It’s my only chance,” she says.
Where is the food? Look around, where is it?
Jorum Baslina is a local leader in the village of Kigaaga. He also joined the project. “Ecotrust just wants to grow as many trees as possible,” he tells Lindberg. “They urge us: plant more!”
Jorum says there is no transparency. Ecotrust did not tell the farmers how much they would receive, or why the money has not been paid. He shows Lindberg a contract, written in English, and says that,
Many here can barely write their own names. And almost no one knows English. Why don’t we get the agreement in our own language? And why doesn’t it say how much we should get?
Jorum has acted as a spokesperson for other people involved in Ecotrust’s project. He says that of the 100 farmers he’s in contact with, only six or seven are happy with the project and they had unused land to plant on and were the first to join.
“The rest of us are much poorer than before,” Jorum tells Lindberg. “Almost everyone has started cutting down the trees or is planning to do so. Where is the food? Look around, where is it?”
“We are starving”
Ecotrust came to Herbert Rukundo’s farm nine years ago and promised that the trees would bring money, every year. Herbert tells Lindberg that,
We dreamed of being able to keep the children in school and maybe rebuild the house a little so that it was beautiful, even buying a motorcycle to drive to church. Instead we were forced to starve. Now we’ve chopped it all down and turned it into charcoal.
Last year, Herbert cut down all his trees. Not long afterwards, the coordinator from Ecotrust visited his farm and accused Herbert of breach of contract. The Ecotrust coordinator threatened that if Herbert did not replant all the trees he would have to face the police and prison.
Hubert replied that as things are, “We are starving.”
Hubert tells Lindberg that Ecotrust didn’t want to listen. “Now I can’t sleep at night,” he says.
Mauda Twinomngisha wanted to send her three daughters to university. “I wanted them to have a better life than me and my husband had. It was for their future that we signed up,” she tells Lindberg.
But when the food disappeared, she had to take the girls out of school. All three have been married off as child brides, aged 14, 15, and 16.
Two years ago, Mauda decided to cut down the trees. “Then a woman from Ecotrust came here,” she tells Lindberg. The woman was very angry. She told Mauda to remove her bananas and plant trees. “But we had no choice,” Mauda says.
Wilson Akiiza and Violet Mbabaazi planted 600 trees on their three acres of land. “Now we have no food”, Wilson tells Lindberg. “Ecotrust never explained how much money I would get, only that it would come every year. Now I am the coordinator for 89 farmers who are part of the project. Nobody has food.”
Robert Sunday has also cut down all his Ecotrust “carbon trees” and made charcoal with them. With the money from the charcoal, he will buy cassava plants.
In the 10 years since he planted the trees, he received two payments, of about US$50 each.
He has only one acre, from which he used to feed 10 people. “Ecotrust must have understood that the family would never make it,” Lindberg writes. “Nevertheless, they were pushed to plant.”
Auditor: “Food security not an issue”
Aftonbladet’s research team visited nine farms in two districts, Hoima and Kikuube. All of them planted trees for Ecotrust on land that they previously used for growing crops. Hunger was the result.
One family received no money at all. All of the others received fewer payments than the contract promised. Ecotrust has not explained to any of them why the money has not been paid out.
None of the nine families has received enough money to cover the cost of food lost to the “carbon trees”.
None of the families could explain how carbon trading works, who bought the carbon credits, or how much money they should have received. Most of them did not receive a copy of the contract they signed.
Two of the families told Lindberg that they were forced to marry off underage daughters.
One eight of the farms, all or some of the trees have now been cut down to make way for food crops. The timber has been sold as charcoal.
Lindberg acknowledges that the Aftonbladet research is not comprehensive. Several thousand farmers are involved in the project, spread over a large area.
But David Kureeba, the lead author of Global Forest Coalition’s 2022 report about the project, tells Lindberg that the problem is widespread and systemic. “We are 45 million people crowded in Uganda,” Kureeba says, “and the vast majority are already living on the verge of starvation. They have no land to spare.”
The Global Forest Coalition report is based on interviews with more than 100 farmers. That report came out 18 months ago. “Since then the situation has worsened further,” Lindberg writes. “Why haven’t those responsible reacted?”
Under Plan Vivo’s rules, the project has to be inspected every six years. The most recent audit was in 2019, carried out by Environmental Services, Inc, a US-based company.
The lead verifier was Guy Pinjuv, who has since moved on to become Senior Advisor for Carbon and MRV (Measurement, Reporting, and Verification) at Conservation International.
A 2017 article describes Pinjuv’s US$600,000 house that he built in Nevada on a one acre plot of land that he bought for just US$150,000 in 2014. In the article, Pinjuv describes his work:
“If someone wants to slow down deforestation, I’m the guy who goes and checks to make sure they calculated everything correctly. And if there’s a tribe there, I’m the guy who goes and meets the chief and makes sure they’re not planning a revolution . . . that sort of stuff.”
The 2019 Environmental Services audit report states that, “In general food security does not appear to be an issue and project activities are maintaining or increasing food production.” There is no mention of the systemic hunger that, as Lindberg writes, “seems to be integrated into the core of the project”.
“Africa’s poor, who did the least to cause the climate crisis, will pay the price when we have to change,” Lindberg writes.
Lindberg highlights the inequity of the situation. “At Swedish hamburger restaurants, guests order from climate-neutral menus. In the hunger forest, the children wait in vain for food.”
Source: reddmonitor.substack.com
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COP16 in Riyadh: World Leaders Commit $12.15B to Combat Land Degradation and Drought
Published
5 days agoon
December 17, 2024The 16th Conference of the Parties (COP16) to the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) has concluded in Riyadh, marking the largest and most inclusive conference in the organization’s history.
With over 20,000 participants, including global leaders, scientists, private sector representatives, and civil society groups, the conference laid out bold strategies to address land degradation, drought, and desertification.
The highlight of the conference was the announcement of the Riyadh Global Drought Resilience Partnership, which secured $12.15 billion in pledges to support drought-affected regions in 80 vulnerable countries, including Uganda.
This funding aims to strengthen food security, promote sustainable land management, and protect ecosystems from the growing impacts of climate change.
For Uganda, where over 40% of the population relies on agriculture, this commitment offers hope for combating the devastating effects of prolonged droughts in the cattle corridor and other semi-arid regions.
In a move to enhance global preparedness for droughts, COP16 launched an AI-powered Drought Observatory, a groundbreaking tool designed to provide real-time data and predictive analysis.
Uganda, with its ongoing challenges in monitoring and responding to climate impacts, stands to benefit immensely from this technology, which will enable the government to anticipate and respond effectively to severe drought conditions.
This could mitigate the recurring food insecurity and water scarcity issues faced by communities in Karamoja and other drought-prone areas.
H.E. Abdulrahman Abdulmohsen AlFadley, COP16 President, in his closing remarks, stated:
“This session marks a turning point in raising awareness and strengthening efforts to restore land and build resilience. The Riyadh Declaration sends a clear message: the time for decisive action is now.”
For Uganda, this turning point is critical as the country battles desertification in key ecosystems like the cattle corridor and Lake Kyoga basin, which threaten biodiversity, agriculture, and livelihoods.
With only 6% of land restoration funding currently coming from private sources, COP16 introduced the Business for Land initiative to increase private sector engagement in land restoration.
Over 400 companies participated in discussions on sustainable finance, environmental, social, and governance (ESG) practices, and strategies to mobilize private investment for land restoration projects.
Uganda, which has already seen successful private-sector participation in conservation projects such as carbon trading and reforestation in areas like Mabira Forest, could tap into this global momentum to attract more investments for land restoration initiatives.
To promote inclusivity, COP16 placed women and youth at the forefront of the fight against land degradation. Key outcomes included:
The launch of youth-led initiatives to drive grassroots climate action.
Adoption of gender-responsive policies to ensure equitable participation in land restoration efforts.
For Uganda, these measures are especially relevant.
The country has a youthful population and strong women-led grassroots organizations that are already leading efforts to promote climate resilience through tree planting and sustainable farming practices.
The resolutions adopted at COP16 provide a framework for scaling up these local efforts while ensuring inclusivity and equitable representation.
Scientific data presented at COP16 painted a dire picture of the planet’s land resources:
77.6% of Earth’s land is drier today than it was 30 years ago.
40.6% of the planet is now classified as drylands, threatening ecosystems, food security, and livelihoods.
For Uganda, this data underscores the urgent need for action.
With parts of the country already facing desertification and reduced rainfall patterns, the findings highlight the importance of restoring degraded lands like Nakasongola and tackling deforestation in critical areas such as Mount Elgon.
As COP16 wraps up, attention now shifts to COP17, which will take place in Mongolia.
Delegates will continue discussions on establishing a global drought regime, building on the momentum and progress achieved in Riyadh.
For Uganda, the outcomes of COP16 represent a pivotal moment.
The historic commitments, technological innovations, and inclusive policies offer the country an opportunity to address its growing environmental challenges.
If implemented effectively, these resolutions could help Uganda restore its degraded lands, safeguard livelihoods, and build resilience against future climate shocks, positioning the country as a leader in sustainable land management in Africa.
Source: nilepost.co.ug
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Church of Uganda’s call to end land grabbing is timely and re-enforces earlier calls to investigate quack investors and their agents fueling the problem.
Published
1 week agoon
December 13, 2024By Witness Radio team.
The Church of Uganda has called for the government to intervene immediately to address the escalating issue of land grabbing in Uganda.
The Archbishop of the Church of Uganda, Rt, made the urgent appeal. Rev. Steven Kazimba Mugalu, during an event in Wamala Village, Nansana Municipality, Wakiso District, on Saturday, December 7. He urged the government to take responsibility for protecting its citizens’ rights, particularly the right to own and occupy land, by strengthening laws and regulations governing land ownership and use.
The Archbishop noted that local communities are being forcibly removed from their land without receiving compensation or alternative sources of income. In many cases, Ugandan communities face eviction or compulsory land acquisition under the guise of developmental projects, leaving many marginalized.
Bwowe Ismael’s case is an example. He is a father of 20 and a person with a disability (PWD) living in Bethlehem in the Kyotera district. In an interview with Witness Radio, he revealed that his land was forcefully taken when he demanded fair compensation for it, which is affected by the East African crude oil pipeline project (EACOP). He shared that the State authorities intimidated, arrested, and charged him with false offenses, such as aggravated robbery, accusing him of sabotaging the government project.
“This is a loss for the entire nation, not just the impacted individuals and families,” the Archbishop said. He added,” We implore the government to set up an open and transparent procedure for acquiring land and to guarantee that all people and communities impacted by land grabbing receive just compensation.”
The Church of Uganda’s call for government intervention on land grabbing comes less than a month after Witness Radio released a shocking report on land evictions in Uganda. The report revealed that nearly four land evictions are reported weekly, affecting approximately 15,126 people and threatening 5,060.12 hectares of land nationwide. It further estimated that 2,160 Ugandans face evictions daily to make way for investments, with 723 hectares of land at risk of being seized daily.
The Witness Radio report “Forced Land Evictions in Uganda” covered 90 land eviction cases over six months from January to June 2024, affecting at least 363,021 Ugandans and putting over 121,000 hectares of land at risk of land grabs.
Evictions have not only disrupted people’s lives but have also contributed to increased food insecurity in Uganda, violence, and, in many cases, death and the criminalization of those who resist or face eviction. According to the report, corporate entities such as Agilis Partners Ltd, Great Seasons Ltd, East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP), New Forest Company (NFC), and Formosa Ltd, along with the impunity of government officials, wealthy individuals, multinational corporations, and influential figures, including Army Generals, are the leading perpetrators.
The report further highlighted that local and foreign investors were involved in 67 cases, government agencies in 12, and tribal and family land conflicts in 11 cases.
Poor people are often the primary targets and most affected by land grabbing as those behind these evictions hold significant power. During the same period, Witness Radio documented 65 attacks on land and environmental defenders (LEDs) and climate activists who were challenging illegal land evictions and corporate environmental harm in Uganda. Most (37) evictions were enforced by armed gangs on behalf of evictors, with 25 cases by Uganda police. In contrast, 5 cases involved the participation of some soldiers of the Uganda Army, whereas 4 cases involved private security companies.
Kazimba’s call for government intervention echoes Witness Radio’s report, which also emphasized the urgent need for government action to address the land-grabbing crisis, respect human rights, uphold the rule of law, ensure compliance with directives on land evictions issued by relevant authorities, and closely monitor their implementation.
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Three-quarters of Earth’s land became permanently drier in last three decades: UN
Published
2 weeks agoon
December 9, 2024-
Aridity: The ‘existential crisis’ redefining life on Earth
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Five billion people could be affected by 2100
Riyadh, Saudi Arabia – Even as dramatic water-related disasters such as floods and storms intensified in some parts of the world, more than three-quarters of Earth’s land became permanently drier in recent decades, UN scientists warned today in a stark new analysis.
Some 77.6% of Earth’s land experienced drier conditions during the three decades leading up to 2020 compared to the previous 30-year period, according to the landmark report from the UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD).
Over the same period, drylands expanded by about 4.3 million km2 – an area nearly a third larger than India, the world’s 7th largest country – and now cover 40.6% of all land on Earth (excluding Antarctica).
In recent decades some 7.6% of global lands – an area larger than Canada – were pushed across aridity thresholds (i.e. from non-drylands to drylands, or from less arid dryland classes to more arid classes).
Most of these areas have transitioned from humid landscapes to drylands, with dire implications for agriculture, ecosystems, and the people living there.
And the research warns that, if the world fails to curb greenhouse gas emissions, another 3% of the world’s humid areas will become drylands by the end of this century.
In high greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, expanding drylands are forecast across the Midwestern United States, central Mexico, northern Venezuela, north-eastern Brazil, south-eastern Argentina, the entire Mediterranean Region, the Black Sea coast, large parts of southern Africa, and southern Australia.
The report, The Global Threat of Drying Lands: Regional and global aridity trends and future projections, was launched at the 16th conference of UNCCD’s nearly 200 Parties in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia (COP16), the largest UN land conference to date, and the first UNCCD COP to be held in the Middle East, a region profoundly affected by impacts from aridity.
“This analysis finally dispels an uncertainty that has long surrounded global drying trends,” says Ibrahim Thiaw, UNCCD Executive Secretary. “For the first time, the aridity crisis has been documented with scientific clarity, revealing an existential threat affecting billions around the globe.”
“Unlike droughts—temporary periods of low rainfall—aridity represents a permanent, unrelenting transformation,” he adds. “Droughts end. When an area’s climate becomes drier, however, the ability to return to previous conditions is lost. The drier climates now affecting vast lands across the globe will not return to how they were and this change is redefining life on Earth.”
The report by UNCCD Science-Policy Interface (SPI) — the UN body for assessing the science of land degradation and drought — points to human-caused climate change as the primary driver of this shift. Greenhouse gas emissions from electricity generation, transport, industry and land use changes warm the planet and other human activities warm the planet and affect rainfall, evaporation and plant life, creating the conditions that increase aridity.
Global aridity index (AI) data track these conditions and reveal widespread change over the decades.
Aridification hotspots
Areas particularly hard-hit by the drying trend include almost all of Europe (95.9% of its land), parts of the western United States, Brazil, parts of Asia (notably eastern Asia), and central Africa.
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Parts of the Western United States and Brazil: Significant drying trends, with water scarcity and wildfires becoming perennial hazards.
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Mediterranean and Southern Europe: Once considered agricultural breadbaskets, these areas face a stark future as semi-arid conditions expand.
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Central Africa and parts of Asia: Biologically megadiverse areas are experiencing ecosystem degradation and desertification, endangering countless species.
By contrast, less than a quarter of the planet’s land (22.4%) experienced wetter conditions, with areas in the central United States, Angola’s Atlantic coast, and parts of Southeast Asia showing some gains in moisture.
The overarching trend, however, is clear: drylands are expanding, pushing ecosystems and societies to suffer from aridity’s life-threatening impacts.
The report names South Sudan and Tanzania as nations with the largest percentage of land transitioning to drylands, and China as the country experiencing the largest total area shifting from non-drylands into drylands.
For the 2.3 billion people – well over 25% of the world’s population – living in the expanding drylands, this new normal requires lasting, adaptive solutions. Aridity-related land degradation, known as desertification, represents a dire threat to human well-being and ecological stability.
And as the planet continues to warm, report projections in the worst-case scenario suggest up to 5 billion people could live in drylands by the century’s end, grappling with depleted soils, dwindling water resources, and the diminishment or collapse of once-thriving ecosystems.
Forced migration is one of aridity’s most visible consequences. As land becomes uninhabitable, families and entire communities facing water scarcity and agricultural collapse often have no choice but to abandon their homes, leading to social and political challenges worldwide. From the Middle East to Africa and South Asia, millions are already on the move—a trend set to intensify in coming decades.
Aridity’s devastating impact
The effects of rising aridity are cascading and multifaceted, touching nearly every aspect of life and society, the report says.
It warns that one fifth of all land could experience abrupt ecosystem transformations from rising aridity by the end of the century, causing dramatic shifts (such as forests becoming grasslands and other changes) and leading to extinctions among many of the world’s plants, animals and other life.
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Aridity is considered the world’s largest single driver behind the degradation of agricultural systems, affecting 40% of Earth’s arable lands
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Rising aridity has been blamed for a 12% decline in gross domestic product (GDP) recorded for African countries between 1990–2015
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More than two thirds of all land on the planet (excluding Greenland and Antarctica) is projected to store less water by the end of the century, if greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise even modestly
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Aridity is considered one of the world’s five most important causes of land degradation (along with land erosion, salinization, organic carbon loss and vegetation degradation)
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Rising aridity in the Middle East has been linked to the region’s more frequent and larger sand and dust storms
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Increasing aridity is expected to play a role in larger and more intense wildfires in the climate-altered future—not least because of its impacts on tree deaths in semi-arid forests and the consequent growing availability of dry biomass for burning
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Rising aridity’s impacts on poverty, water scarcity, land degradation and insufficient food production have been linked to increasing rates of sickness and death globally —especially among children and women
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Rising aridity and drought play a key role in increasing human migration around the world—particularly in the hyper-arid and arid areas of southern Europe, the Middle East and North Africa and southern Asia.
Report marks a turning point
For years, documenting the rise of aridity proved a challenge, the report states. Its long-term nature and the intricate interplay of factors such as rainfall, evaporation, and plant transpiration made analysis difficult. Early studies produced conflicting results, often muddied by scientific caution.
The new report marks a turning point, leveraging advanced climate models and standardized methodologies to deliver a definitive assessment of global drying trends, confirming the inexorable rise of aridity, while providing critical insights into its underlying drivers and potential future trajectory.
Recommendations
The report offers a comprehensive roadmap for tackling aridity, emphasizing both mitigation and adaptation. Among its recommendations:
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Strengthen aridity monitoring
Integrate aridity metrics into existing drought monitoring systems. This approach would enable early detection of changes and help guide interventions before conditions worsen. Platforms like the new Aridity Visual Information Tool provide policymakers and researchers with valuable data, allowing for early warnings and timely interventions. Standardized assessments can enhance global cooperation and inform local adaptation strategies. -
Improve land use practices
Incentivizing sustainable land use systems can mitigate the impacts of rising aridity, particularly in vulnerable regions. Innovative, holistic, sustainable approaches to land management are the focus of another new UNCCD SPI report, Sustainable Land Use Systems: The path to collectively achieving Land Degradation Neutrality, available at https://bit.ly/3ZwkLZ3. It considers how land-use at one location affect others elsewhere, makes resilience to climate change or other shocks a priority, and encourages participation and buy-in by Indigenous and local communities as well as all levels of government. Projects like the Great Green Wall—a land restoration initiative spanning Africa—demonstrate the potential for large-scale, holistic efforts to combat aridity and restore ecosystems, while creating jobs and stabilizing economies. -
Invest in water efficiency
Technologies such as rainwater harvesting, drip irrigation, and wastewater recycling offer practical solutions for managing scarce water resources in dry regions. -
Build resilience in vulnerable communities
Local knowledge, capacity building, social justice and holistic thinking are vital to resilience. Sustainable land use systems encourage decision makers to apply responsible governance, protect human rights (including secure land access) and ensure accountability and transparency. Capacity-building programmes, financial support, education programmes, climate information services and community-driven initiatives empower those most affected by aridity to adapt to changing conditions. Farmers switching to drought-resistant crops or pastoralists adopting more arid-tolerant livestock exemplify incremental adaptation. -
Develop international frameworks and cooperation
The UNCCD’s Land Degradation Neutrality framework provides a model for aligning national policies with international goals, ensuring a unified response to the crisis. National Adaptation Plans must incorporate aridity alongside drought planning to create cohesive strategies that address water and land management challenges. Cross-sectoral collaboration at the global level, facilitated by frameworks like the UNCCD, is essential for scaling solutions.
Comments
“For decades, the world’s scientists have signalled that our growing greenhouse gas emissions are behind global warming. Now, for the first time, a UN scientific body is warning that burning fossil fuels is causing permanent drying across much of the world, too—with potentially catastrophic impacts affecting access to water that could push people and nature even closer to disastrous tipping points. As large tracts of the world’s land become more arid, the consequences of inaction grow increasingly dire and adaptation is no longer optional—it is imperative.” – UNCCD Chief Scientist Barron Orr
“Without concerted efforts, billions face a future marked by hunger, displacement, and economic decline. Yet, by embracing innovative solutions and fostering global solidarity, humanity can rise to meet this challenge. The question is not whether we have the tools to respond—it is whether we have the will to act.” – Nichole Barger, Chair, UNCCD Science-Policy Interface
“The report’s clarity is a wake-up call for policymakers: tackling aridity demands more than just science—it requires a diversity of perspectives and knowledge systems. By weaving Indigenous and local knowledge with cutting-edge data, we can craft stronger, smarter strategies to slow aridity’s advance, mitigate its impacts and thrive in a drying world.” – Sergio Vicente-Serrano, co-lead author of the report and an aridity expert with Spain’s Pyrenean Institute of Ecology
“This report underscores the critical need to address aridity as a defining global challenge of our time. By uniting diverse expertise and leveraging breakthrough technologies, we are not just measuring change—we are crafting a roadmap for resilience. Tackling aridity demands a collaborative vision that integrates innovation, adaptive solutions, and a commitment to securing a sustainable future for all.” – Narcisa Pricope, co-lead author, professor of geosciences and associate vice president for research at Mississippi State University, USA.
“The timeliness of this report cannot be overstated. Rising aridity will reshape the global landscape, challenging traditional ways of life and forcing societies to reimagine their relationship with land and water. As with climate change and biodiversity loss, addressing aridity requires coordinated international action and an unwavering commitment to sustainable development.” – Andrea Toreti, co-lead author and senior scientist, European Commission’s Joint Research Centre
By the Numbers:
Key global trends / projections
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77.6%: Proportion of Earth’s land that experienced drier climates from 1990–2020 compared to the previous 30 years.
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40.6%: Global land mass (excluding Antarctica) classified as drylands, up from 37.5% over the last 30 years.
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4.3 million km²: Humid lands transformed into drylands in the last three decades, an area one-third larger than India
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40%: Global arable land affected by aridity—the leading driver of agricultural degradation.
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30.9%: Global population living in drylands in 2020, up from 22.5% in 1990
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2.3 billion: People living in drylands in 2020, a doubling from 1990, projected to more than double again by 2100 under a worst-case climate change scenario.
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1.35 billion: Dryland inhabitants in Asia—more than half the global total.
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620 million: Dryland inhabitants in Africa—nearly half of the continent’s population.
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9.1%: Portion of Earth’s land classified as hyperarid, including the Atacama (Chile), Sahara (Africa), Namib (Africa), and Gobi (China/Mongolia) deserts.
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23%: Increase in global land at “moderate” to “very high” desertification risk by 2100 under the worst-case emissions scenario
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+8% at “very high” risk
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+5% at “high” risk
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+10% at “moderate” risk
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Environmental degradation
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5: Key drivers of land degradation: Rising aridity, land erosion, salinization, organic carbon loss, and vegetation degradation
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20%: Global land at risk of abrupt ecosystem transformations by 2100 due to rising aridity
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55%: Species (mammals, reptiles, fish, amphibians, and birds) at risk of habitat loss from aridity. Hotspots: (Arid regions): West Africa, Western Australia, Iberian Peninsula; (Humid regions): Southern Mexico, northern Amazon rainforest
Economics
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12%: African GDP decline attributed to aridity, 1990–2015
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16% / 6.7%: Projected GDP losses in Africa / Asia by 2079 under a moderate emissions scenario
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20M tons maize, 21M tons wheat, 19M tons rice: Expected losses in global crop yields by 2040 due to expanding aridity
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50%: Projected drop in maize yields in Kenya by 2050 under a high emissions scenario
Water
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90%: Rainfall in drylands that evaporates back into the atmosphere, leaving 10% for plant growth
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67%: Global land expected to store less water by 2100, even under moderate emission scenarios
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75%: Decline in water availability in the Middle East and North Africa since the 1950s
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40%: Predicted Andean runoff decline by 2100 under a high emissions scenario, threatening water supplies in South America
Health
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55%: Increase in severe child stunting in sub-Saharan Africa under a medium emissions scenario due to combined effects of aridity and climate warming
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Up to 12.5%: Estimated rise in mortality risks during sand and dust storms in China, 2013–2018
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57% / 38%: Increases in fine and coarse atmospheric dust levels, respectively, in the southwestern U.S. by 2100 under worst case climate scenarios
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220%: Projected increase in premature deaths due to airborne dust in the southwestern United States by 2100 under the high-emissions scenario
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160%: Expected rise in hospitalizations linked to airborne dust in the same region
Wildfires and forests
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74%: Expected increase in wildfire-burned areas in California by 2100 under high emission scenarios
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40: Additional annual high fire danger days in Greece by 2100 compared to late 20th century levels
Notes to editors:
Aridity versus drought
Highly arid regions are places in which a persistent, long-term climatic condition lacks available moisture to support most forms of life and atmospheric evaporative demand significantly exceeds rainfall.
Drought, on the other hand, is an anomalous, shorter-term period of water shortage affecting ecosystems and people and often attributed to low precipitation, high temperatures, low air humidity and/or anomalies in wind.
While drought is part of natural climate variability and can occur in almost any climatic regime, aridity is a stable condition for which changes occur over extremely long-time scales under significant forcing.
Media contacts: press@unccd.int
Fragkiska Megaloudi, +30 6945547877 (WhatsApp) fmegaloudi@unccd.int
Gloria Pallares, +34 606 93 1460 gpallares@unccd.int
Terry Collins, +1-416-878-8712 tc@tca.tc
Authors and other experts are available for advance interviews.
The full report, The Global Threat of Drying Lands: Regional and global aridity trends and future projections, is available for media preview at https://www.unccd.int/resources/reports/global-threat-drying-lands-regional-and-global-aridity-trends-and-future
Original Source: unccd.int
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