MEDIA FOR CHANGE NETWORK
Three-quarters of Earth’s land became permanently drier in last three decades: UN
Published
2 years agoon

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Aridity: The ‘existential crisis’ redefining life on Earth
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Five billion people could be affected by 2100
Riyadh, Saudi Arabia – Even as dramatic water-related disasters such as floods and storms intensified in some parts of the world, more than three-quarters of Earth’s land became permanently drier in recent decades, UN scientists warned today in a stark new analysis.
Some 77.6% of Earth’s land experienced drier conditions during the three decades leading up to 2020 compared to the previous 30-year period, according to the landmark report from the UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD).
Over the same period, drylands expanded by about 4.3 million km2 – an area nearly a third larger than India, the world’s 7th largest country – and now cover 40.6% of all land on Earth (excluding Antarctica).
In recent decades some 7.6% of global lands – an area larger than Canada – were pushed across aridity thresholds (i.e. from non-drylands to drylands, or from less arid dryland classes to more arid classes).
Most of these areas have transitioned from humid landscapes to drylands, with dire implications for agriculture, ecosystems, and the people living there.
And the research warns that, if the world fails to curb greenhouse gas emissions, another 3% of the world’s humid areas will become drylands by the end of this century.
In high greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, expanding drylands are forecast across the Midwestern United States, central Mexico, northern Venezuela, north-eastern Brazil, south-eastern Argentina, the entire Mediterranean Region, the Black Sea coast, large parts of southern Africa, and southern Australia.
The report, The Global Threat of Drying Lands: Regional and global aridity trends and future projections, was launched at the 16th conference of UNCCD’s nearly 200 Parties in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia (COP16), the largest UN land conference to date, and the first UNCCD COP to be held in the Middle East, a region profoundly affected by impacts from aridity.
“This analysis finally dispels an uncertainty that has long surrounded global drying trends,” says Ibrahim Thiaw, UNCCD Executive Secretary. “For the first time, the aridity crisis has been documented with scientific clarity, revealing an existential threat affecting billions around the globe.”
“Unlike droughts—temporary periods of low rainfall—aridity represents a permanent, unrelenting transformation,” he adds. “Droughts end. When an area’s climate becomes drier, however, the ability to return to previous conditions is lost. The drier climates now affecting vast lands across the globe will not return to how they were and this change is redefining life on Earth.”
The report by UNCCD Science-Policy Interface (SPI) — the UN body for assessing the science of land degradation and drought — points to human-caused climate change as the primary driver of this shift. Greenhouse gas emissions from electricity generation, transport, industry and land use changes warm the planet and other human activities warm the planet and affect rainfall, evaporation and plant life, creating the conditions that increase aridity.
Global aridity index (AI) data track these conditions and reveal widespread change over the decades.
Aridification hotspots
Areas particularly hard-hit by the drying trend include almost all of Europe (95.9% of its land), parts of the western United States, Brazil, parts of Asia (notably eastern Asia), and central Africa.
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Parts of the Western United States and Brazil: Significant drying trends, with water scarcity and wildfires becoming perennial hazards.
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Mediterranean and Southern Europe: Once considered agricultural breadbaskets, these areas face a stark future as semi-arid conditions expand.
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Central Africa and parts of Asia: Biologically megadiverse areas are experiencing ecosystem degradation and desertification, endangering countless species.
By contrast, less than a quarter of the planet’s land (22.4%) experienced wetter conditions, with areas in the central United States, Angola’s Atlantic coast, and parts of Southeast Asia showing some gains in moisture.
The overarching trend, however, is clear: drylands are expanding, pushing ecosystems and societies to suffer from aridity’s life-threatening impacts.
The report names South Sudan and Tanzania as nations with the largest percentage of land transitioning to drylands, and China as the country experiencing the largest total area shifting from non-drylands into drylands.
For the 2.3 billion people – well over 25% of the world’s population – living in the expanding drylands, this new normal requires lasting, adaptive solutions. Aridity-related land degradation, known as desertification, represents a dire threat to human well-being and ecological stability.
And as the planet continues to warm, report projections in the worst-case scenario suggest up to 5 billion people could live in drylands by the century’s end, grappling with depleted soils, dwindling water resources, and the diminishment or collapse of once-thriving ecosystems.
Forced migration is one of aridity’s most visible consequences. As land becomes uninhabitable, families and entire communities facing water scarcity and agricultural collapse often have no choice but to abandon their homes, leading to social and political challenges worldwide. From the Middle East to Africa and South Asia, millions are already on the move—a trend set to intensify in coming decades.
Aridity’s devastating impact
The effects of rising aridity are cascading and multifaceted, touching nearly every aspect of life and society, the report says.
It warns that one fifth of all land could experience abrupt ecosystem transformations from rising aridity by the end of the century, causing dramatic shifts (such as forests becoming grasslands and other changes) and leading to extinctions among many of the world’s plants, animals and other life.
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Aridity is considered the world’s largest single driver behind the degradation of agricultural systems, affecting 40% of Earth’s arable lands
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Rising aridity has been blamed for a 12% decline in gross domestic product (GDP) recorded for African countries between 1990–2015
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More than two thirds of all land on the planet (excluding Greenland and Antarctica) is projected to store less water by the end of the century, if greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise even modestly
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Aridity is considered one of the world’s five most important causes of land degradation (along with land erosion, salinization, organic carbon loss and vegetation degradation)
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Rising aridity in the Middle East has been linked to the region’s more frequent and larger sand and dust storms
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Increasing aridity is expected to play a role in larger and more intense wildfires in the climate-altered future—not least because of its impacts on tree deaths in semi-arid forests and the consequent growing availability of dry biomass for burning
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Rising aridity’s impacts on poverty, water scarcity, land degradation and insufficient food production have been linked to increasing rates of sickness and death globally —especially among children and women
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Rising aridity and drought play a key role in increasing human migration around the world—particularly in the hyper-arid and arid areas of southern Europe, the Middle East and North Africa and southern Asia.
Report marks a turning point
For years, documenting the rise of aridity proved a challenge, the report states. Its long-term nature and the intricate interplay of factors such as rainfall, evaporation, and plant transpiration made analysis difficult. Early studies produced conflicting results, often muddied by scientific caution.
The new report marks a turning point, leveraging advanced climate models and standardized methodologies to deliver a definitive assessment of global drying trends, confirming the inexorable rise of aridity, while providing critical insights into its underlying drivers and potential future trajectory.
Recommendations
The report offers a comprehensive roadmap for tackling aridity, emphasizing both mitigation and adaptation. Among its recommendations:
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Strengthen aridity monitoring
Integrate aridity metrics into existing drought monitoring systems. This approach would enable early detection of changes and help guide interventions before conditions worsen. Platforms like the new Aridity Visual Information Tool provide policymakers and researchers with valuable data, allowing for early warnings and timely interventions. Standardized assessments can enhance global cooperation and inform local adaptation strategies. -
Improve land use practices
Incentivizing sustainable land use systems can mitigate the impacts of rising aridity, particularly in vulnerable regions. Innovative, holistic, sustainable approaches to land management are the focus of another new UNCCD SPI report, Sustainable Land Use Systems: The path to collectively achieving Land Degradation Neutrality, available at https://bit.ly/3ZwkLZ3. It considers how land-use at one location affect others elsewhere, makes resilience to climate change or other shocks a priority, and encourages participation and buy-in by Indigenous and local communities as well as all levels of government. Projects like the Great Green Wall—a land restoration initiative spanning Africa—demonstrate the potential for large-scale, holistic efforts to combat aridity and restore ecosystems, while creating jobs and stabilizing economies. -
Invest in water efficiency
Technologies such as rainwater harvesting, drip irrigation, and wastewater recycling offer practical solutions for managing scarce water resources in dry regions. -
Build resilience in vulnerable communities
Local knowledge, capacity building, social justice and holistic thinking are vital to resilience. Sustainable land use systems encourage decision makers to apply responsible governance, protect human rights (including secure land access) and ensure accountability and transparency. Capacity-building programmes, financial support, education programmes, climate information services and community-driven initiatives empower those most affected by aridity to adapt to changing conditions. Farmers switching to drought-resistant crops or pastoralists adopting more arid-tolerant livestock exemplify incremental adaptation. -
Develop international frameworks and cooperation
The UNCCD’s Land Degradation Neutrality framework provides a model for aligning national policies with international goals, ensuring a unified response to the crisis. National Adaptation Plans must incorporate aridity alongside drought planning to create cohesive strategies that address water and land management challenges. Cross-sectoral collaboration at the global level, facilitated by frameworks like the UNCCD, is essential for scaling solutions.
Comments
“For decades, the world’s scientists have signalled that our growing greenhouse gas emissions are behind global warming. Now, for the first time, a UN scientific body is warning that burning fossil fuels is causing permanent drying across much of the world, too—with potentially catastrophic impacts affecting access to water that could push people and nature even closer to disastrous tipping points. As large tracts of the world’s land become more arid, the consequences of inaction grow increasingly dire and adaptation is no longer optional—it is imperative.” – UNCCD Chief Scientist Barron Orr
“Without concerted efforts, billions face a future marked by hunger, displacement, and economic decline. Yet, by embracing innovative solutions and fostering global solidarity, humanity can rise to meet this challenge. The question is not whether we have the tools to respond—it is whether we have the will to act.” – Nichole Barger, Chair, UNCCD Science-Policy Interface
“The report’s clarity is a wake-up call for policymakers: tackling aridity demands more than just science—it requires a diversity of perspectives and knowledge systems. By weaving Indigenous and local knowledge with cutting-edge data, we can craft stronger, smarter strategies to slow aridity’s advance, mitigate its impacts and thrive in a drying world.” – Sergio Vicente-Serrano, co-lead author of the report and an aridity expert with Spain’s Pyrenean Institute of Ecology
“This report underscores the critical need to address aridity as a defining global challenge of our time. By uniting diverse expertise and leveraging breakthrough technologies, we are not just measuring change—we are crafting a roadmap for resilience. Tackling aridity demands a collaborative vision that integrates innovation, adaptive solutions, and a commitment to securing a sustainable future for all.” – Narcisa Pricope, co-lead author, professor of geosciences and associate vice president for research at Mississippi State University, USA.
“The timeliness of this report cannot be overstated. Rising aridity will reshape the global landscape, challenging traditional ways of life and forcing societies to reimagine their relationship with land and water. As with climate change and biodiversity loss, addressing aridity requires coordinated international action and an unwavering commitment to sustainable development.” – Andrea Toreti, co-lead author and senior scientist, European Commission’s Joint Research Centre
By the Numbers:
Key global trends / projections
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77.6%: Proportion of Earth’s land that experienced drier climates from 1990–2020 compared to the previous 30 years.
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40.6%: Global land mass (excluding Antarctica) classified as drylands, up from 37.5% over the last 30 years.
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4.3 million km²: Humid lands transformed into drylands in the last three decades, an area one-third larger than India
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40%: Global arable land affected by aridity—the leading driver of agricultural degradation.
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30.9%: Global population living in drylands in 2020, up from 22.5% in 1990
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2.3 billion: People living in drylands in 2020, a doubling from 1990, projected to more than double again by 2100 under a worst-case climate change scenario.
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1.35 billion: Dryland inhabitants in Asia—more than half the global total.
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620 million: Dryland inhabitants in Africa—nearly half of the continent’s population.
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9.1%: Portion of Earth’s land classified as hyperarid, including the Atacama (Chile), Sahara (Africa), Namib (Africa), and Gobi (China/Mongolia) deserts.
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23%: Increase in global land at “moderate” to “very high” desertification risk by 2100 under the worst-case emissions scenario
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+8% at “very high” risk
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+5% at “high” risk
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+10% at “moderate” risk
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Environmental degradation
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5: Key drivers of land degradation: Rising aridity, land erosion, salinization, organic carbon loss, and vegetation degradation
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20%: Global land at risk of abrupt ecosystem transformations by 2100 due to rising aridity
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55%: Species (mammals, reptiles, fish, amphibians, and birds) at risk of habitat loss from aridity. Hotspots: (Arid regions): West Africa, Western Australia, Iberian Peninsula; (Humid regions): Southern Mexico, northern Amazon rainforest
Economics
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12%: African GDP decline attributed to aridity, 1990–2015
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16% / 6.7%: Projected GDP losses in Africa / Asia by 2079 under a moderate emissions scenario
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20M tons maize, 21M tons wheat, 19M tons rice: Expected losses in global crop yields by 2040 due to expanding aridity
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50%: Projected drop in maize yields in Kenya by 2050 under a high emissions scenario
Water
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90%: Rainfall in drylands that evaporates back into the atmosphere, leaving 10% for plant growth
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67%: Global land expected to store less water by 2100, even under moderate emission scenarios
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75%: Decline in water availability in the Middle East and North Africa since the 1950s
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40%: Predicted Andean runoff decline by 2100 under a high emissions scenario, threatening water supplies in South America
Health
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55%: Increase in severe child stunting in sub-Saharan Africa under a medium emissions scenario due to combined effects of aridity and climate warming
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Up to 12.5%: Estimated rise in mortality risks during sand and dust storms in China, 2013–2018
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57% / 38%: Increases in fine and coarse atmospheric dust levels, respectively, in the southwestern U.S. by 2100 under worst case climate scenarios
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220%: Projected increase in premature deaths due to airborne dust in the southwestern United States by 2100 under the high-emissions scenario
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160%: Expected rise in hospitalizations linked to airborne dust in the same region
Wildfires and forests
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74%: Expected increase in wildfire-burned areas in California by 2100 under high emission scenarios
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40: Additional annual high fire danger days in Greece by 2100 compared to late 20th century levels
Notes to editors:
Aridity versus drought
Highly arid regions are places in which a persistent, long-term climatic condition lacks available moisture to support most forms of life and atmospheric evaporative demand significantly exceeds rainfall.
Drought, on the other hand, is an anomalous, shorter-term period of water shortage affecting ecosystems and people and often attributed to low precipitation, high temperatures, low air humidity and/or anomalies in wind.
While drought is part of natural climate variability and can occur in almost any climatic regime, aridity is a stable condition for which changes occur over extremely long-time scales under significant forcing.
Media contacts: press@unccd.int
Fragkiska Megaloudi, +30 6945547877 (WhatsApp) fmegaloudi@unccd.int
Gloria Pallares, +34 606 93 1460 gpallares@unccd.int
Terry Collins, +1-416-878-8712 tc@tca.tc
Authors and other experts are available for advance interviews.
The full report, The Global Threat of Drying Lands: Regional and global aridity trends and future projections, is available for media preview at https://www.unccd.int/resources/reports/global-threat-drying-lands-regional-and-global-aridity-trends-and-future
Original Source: unccd.int
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Uganda is grappling with mounting land struggles as the needs of refugees collide with the rights and hopes of the communities that host them.
Published
23 hours agoon
August 1, 2026
By the Witness Radio team.
For more than ten years, hundreds of families in Kikuube District have fought to piece their lives back together after losing their land to the ever-expanding Kyangwali Refugee Settlement.
One such person is Mr. Ahumuza Busingye, a community leader who recalls how, in 2013, many families were uprooted when the government seized their land to make room for more refugees.
“We have been suffering since 2013 when we were evicted from our land to expand Kyangwali camp. “The problem is we are often displaced from fertile land which is given to refugees. That hurts us. Our families have grown, but we have no place to settle them. We now live in an informal settlement with no land to farm and sustain ourselves,” said Mr. Busingye.
Mr. Busingye’s experience mirrors a rising dilemma in Uganda, a nation celebrated worldwide for its welcoming approach to refugees. Unlike countries that restrict refugees to camps, Uganda offers land for settlement, freedom to move, opportunities to work and start businesses, and access to schools, healthcare, and public services. These progressive policies have transformed Uganda into Africa’s largest haven for refugees and one of the most significant hosts on the planet.
Yet, even as Uganda’s refugee policy draws global praise, tough questions linger about how the country can keep protecting refugees without sacrificing the land rights, livelihoods, and futures of its own people.
This challenge formed the central theme of an X Spaces discussion organized by UCOBAC (Uganda Community Based Association for Women and Children Welfare) in partnership with AWO International and co-hosted by NBS TV under the theme, “Understanding Land Governance: Issues Affecting Refugee and Host Communities in Uganda.”
The event brought together voices from government, academia, humanitarian groups, and the legal sector to tackle rising land governance issues in refugee-hosting districts and to seek ways for refugees and host communities to live together in harmony.
Uganda now shelters almost 1.9 million refugees and asylum seekers, most of them women and children escaping violence in South Sudan, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and nearby nations. As new arrivals pour in and families grow, the hunger for land intensifies, sparking fresh challenges for both refugees and the communities that welcome them.
Dr. Brian Makabayi, a lecturer in the Department of Geomatics and Land Management at Makerere University, argued that refugee settlements should no longer be viewed as temporary humanitarian interventions.
“The issue is not only humanitarian assistance where we are trying to solve the problem temporarily. These communities have stayed for long periods, and if these issues are not properly managed, they can become violent,” he said.
Citing research from districts like Adjumani, Makabayi pointed out that refugees now make up nearly half the population in some places. As families expand but land stays the same, the struggle for space grows ever more intense.
“Many refugees lease farmland from host communities to supplement the small plots allocated to them. However, conflicts often emerge when landowners decide to reclaim their land for personal use, sale, or lease to other people before previous agreements expire.” He further added.
Ms. Claire Birungi Agaba, the Information, Counseling and Legal Assistance Specialist at the Norwegian Refugee Council, said many of the land disputes her organization handles arise from informal and undocumented land agreements.
She explained that land transactions between refugees and host communities are frequently based on verbal agreements without written records specifying land size, duration of use, payment arrangements or responsibilities of each party. As a result, disputes over boundaries, crop destruction, unexpected evictions and changing rental terms have become increasingly common.
“Many host families themselves occupy customary land that has never been formally documented, making it difficult to prove ownership whenever disagreements arise.” She said.
Responding to concerns about land acquisition, Agnes Baseera, Protection Officer (Legal) in the Office of the Prime Minister’s Department of Refugees, said the government does not allocate land for refugee settlements arbitrarily.
According to Baseera, establishing refugee settlements involves close collaboration between the Office of the Prime Minister, district local governments, line ministries, development partners and host communities.
She explained that before any land is designated, the government verifies ownership, assesses the suitability of the land and considers factors such as security, access to water, food availability and the capacity of social services.
“The host communities are always part of this process,” Baseera said, adding that consultation remains central to the government’s refugee settlement policy.
Eunice Nabakwa, Principal Land Officer at the Ministry of Lands, Housing and Urban Development, argued that securing customary land rights is essential to reducing future conflicts.
She noted that more than 75 percent of Uganda’s land is held under customary tenure, much of it without formal documentation. Since many refugee settlements are located on customary land, uncertainty over ownership and boundaries often fuels disputes.
To address this, the Ministry is implementing systematic land adjudication, demarcation, mapping and certification programs, including the issuance of Certificates of Customary
Ownership (CCOs).
These initiatives are intended to formally recognize customary land rights, strengthen tenure security, clarify boundaries and improve local land administration.
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As TotalEnergies’ profits soar, calls are growing for the company to answer for the human rights abuses and environmental damage linked to EACOP.
Published
23 hours agoon
August 1, 2026
By the Witness Radio team.
While French oil giant TotalEnergies boasts multi-billion-dollar profits, campaigners against the East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP) are intensifying demands for the company to face up to the social, environmental, and human rights consequences of its oil ventures in Uganda and Tanzania.
These renewed demands come on the heels of TotalEnergies announcing a staggering US$5.4 billion net profit for the first quarter of 2026, a 29 percent jump from the previous year. While shareholders revel in record-breaking earnings, campaigners point out that communities along the EACOP route are left to shoulder the burdens of displacement, lost livelihoods, and environmental harm.
TotalEnergies is the largest shareholder and lead developer of the East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP), holding a 62 percent stake in the pipeline company. Other shareholders include the Uganda National Oil company (15%), the Tanzania Petroleum Development Corporation (15%), and China National Offshore Oil Corporation (8%). As the majority shareholder, TotalEnergies oversees key decisions concerning the construction, financing, and management of the 1,443-kilometer heated crude oil pipeline that will transport oil from Uganda’s Albertine region to Tanzania’s Port Tanga.
Civil society groups across East Africa warn that TotalEnergies’ financial windfall has come at a steep price for the communities living in the shadow of the pipeline.
Environmental campaigners, including Sherelee Odayar of Greenpeace Africa, Zaki Mamdoo of Stop EACOP, Ziadah Kasimu of Green Conservers, Rukiya Khamis of 350Africa.org, and Balach Bakundane, an EACOP host community representative from Uganda, argue that local people continue to shoulder the social and economic burdens of fossil fuel extraction while corporations reap enormous profits.
Speaking during a discussion on fossil fuel accountability, Rukiya Khamis from 350 Africa- Kenya criticized governments for granting tax incentives to multinational oil companies. At the same time, ordinary citizens struggle with rising living costs.
“We were experiencing massive hikes in utility bills and retail prices. If you are in Kenya, you realize the price of milk was high, the price of bread was high, and the price of basic commodities became increasingly unaffordable. Yet, fossil fuel companies continued receiving subsidies and were free to raise prices.” Rukiya added.
She cautioned that pouring more investment into fossil fuels would only worsen the climate crisis, leaving vulnerable communities even more exposed to devastating climate disasters.
For those living along the EACOP pipeline, the promised benefits remain little more than empty words.
Balach Bakundane, who works with the EACOP Host communities in Uganda, said residents were promised employment opportunities, improved infrastructure, better healthcare services, and enhanced livelihoods. Instead, he says, many families have experienced land loss, declining incomes, and restrictions on fishing activities around affected water bodies.
“It is unbearable and very painful to see TotalEnergies announcing huge profits while our communities continue to lose their dignity, cultural values, and livelihoods. These profits are being made at our expense.” Balach revealed.
Bakundane also noted that fishing communities have been hit hard, losing access to vital parts of the lake due to oil operations.
“It is a very clear indicator that this is a neocolonial project that has no regard for our human rights, cultural values and our livelihood.” He further added.
Greenpeace Africa activist Sherelee Odayar called on African governments to rethink the generous tax breaks and investment perks handed to multinational fossil fuel giants.
She argued that governments should instead enforce the “polluter pays” principle, making companies behind greenhouse gas emissions pay their fair share for climate adaptation, disaster recovery, and compensation to affected communities.
“These companies should not be allowed to privatize the gains while socializing the costs. The extraordinary profits generated from fossil fuels should help finance climate adaptation, loss and damage, and support communities already suffering the impacts of climate change.” Odayar said, adding that accountability should accompany profits.
In Tanzania, activist Ziadah Kasimu of Green Conservers raised alarms about the lack of genuine community consultation and the displacement of thousands of residents uprooted by the pipeline.
She described how women, fishing communities in Tanga, pastoralists in Singida, and farming families have all seen their livelihoods upended by land grabs and new barriers to natural resources.
Kasimu insisted that affected communities deserve clear information, a real voice in decisions, and fair accountability for how the project’s benefits are shared.
“The profits belong only to them, but TotalEnergies and EACOP ignore the benefits for communities. We need transparent and timely information, and monitoring systems that communities themselves can access because this is our land.” She further said.
She emphasized that while communities value development, investments must respect human rights and follow just procedures. These calls for accountability grow louder as legal challenges against EACOP mount.
Earlier this year, four Ugandan farmers filed a case before the UK High Court seeking to have Ugandan constitutional, environmental, and climate laws applied to EACOP Ltd, the UK-registered company responsible for financing the pipeline.
According to Human Rights Watch, more than 100,000 people in Uganda and Tanzania are expected to lose land or access to land because of the pipeline and associated oil infrastructure.
Similarly, advocacy reports by Global Aktion have documented allegations of forced displacement, restrictions on civic space, and adverse impacts on communities affected by the project.
In 2025, BankTrack also urged financial institutions supporting EACOP to reconsider their involvement, citing concerns over environmental destruction and impacts on local livelihoods.
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Researchers sound the alarm: Uganda’s oil development threatens the nation’s vital wetlands.
Published
4 days agoon
July 29, 2026
By the Witness Radio team.
Uganda is set to launch commercial oil production in late September, but researchers caution that this rapid petroleum push could endanger the country’s precious wetlands, wildlife, and rich biodiversity.
This warning arrives as Uganda nears its long-awaited first oil, almost twenty years after crude was first discovered in the Albertine Graben.
In a recent post on the X platform, formerly Twitter, by the Petroleum Authority of Uganda (PAU), Uganda’s statutory body mandated to monitor and regulate the exploration, development, and production, together with the refining, gas conversion, transportation, and storage of petroleum in Uganda, it indicated that the country’s major oil projects are progressing towards production. As of June 30, 2026, the Tilenga project was 74 percent complete, with 234 wells drilled, exceeding the minimum 170 wells required for production.
The Kingfisher project had reached 79 percent completion. In comparison, the East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP) stood at about 90 percent overall progress, with more than 1,443 kilometers of pipeline welded across Uganda and Tanzania.
In July, Irene Bateebe, the Permanent Secretary in the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Development, said Uganda was on course to begin commercial oil production in September.
Speaking during a retreat for Ugandan diplomats organized by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Kampala, Bateebe said the country’s upstream oil projects and export infrastructure were in their final stages, with first oil expected soon.
Yet as Uganda edges toward commercial oil production, a fresh study from the Africa Institute for Energy Governance (AFIEGO) raises red flags about the environmental fallout, especially for wetlands, biodiversity, and the communities whose lives are intertwined with them.
The 31-page AFIEGO report, titled “Siltation, Noisy Generators & Air Pollution: Documenting Oil Sector Damage to Murchison Falls National Park & Uganda’s Wetlands,” documents the impacts of oil pipeline construction and related activities under the Tilenga and Kingfisher upstream projects, as well as EACOP.
The research, conducted between March and June 2026, is based on interviews and focus group discussions with oil-host communities and tourism-sector stakeholders in Buliisa, Hoima, Kikuube, Kakumiro and Kyotera districts.
The report identifies several oil infrastructure projects that are affecting wetlands, including the Victoria Nile Pipeline Crossing under the Tilenga project, the Kingfisher feeder pipeline and EACOP.
The affected ecosystems include the Murchison Falls-Albert Delta Ramsar wetland system, Kibale/Bukoora wetland, Sango Bay-Musambwa Island-Kagera (SAMUKA) Ramsar wetland system and Kafu wetland, as well as other wetlands within the Lake Albert basin.
The AFIEGO report documents increased cases of siltation and blockage of tributaries connected to wetlands, including Wambabya, Kafu and Kibaale/Bukoora in Hoima, Kakumiro and Kyotera districts.
The report also spotlights a surge in population, along with rising air and water pollution, as troubling side effects of the oil boom.
Researchers warn these impacts could ripple through wildlife populations and disrupt the delicate ecological systems that local communities rely on.
“Anthropogenic [human-generated] noise and vibrations can cause stress in wildlife, while affecting communication, movement, and foraging,” the report states.
It adds that fossil-fuel-powered generators release carbon monoxide, carbon dioxide, nitrogen dioxide, and sulfur dioxide, which can cause respiratory distress, weakened immunity, and reproductive disruptions in wildlife.
Diana Nabiruma, Senior Communications Officer at AFIEGO, told Witness Radio that the research was conducted to understand the effects of oil infrastructure on wetlands and identify measures to address the damage.
“AFIEGO decided to conduct research to ensure that first we understand what impacts the construction of the EACOP-related pipelines had on selected wetlands in the country and what measures can be put in place to remediate these impacts and to ensure that the wetlands are conserved for the benefit of Ugandans,” Nabiruma said.
She said several pipelines associated with the oil projects are crossing or affecting wetlands of significant ecological importance.
“The wetlands are being crossed or affected by several pipelines belonging to the aforementioned projects. Some of these pipelines include the Victoria Nile Pipeline Crossing under the Tilenga project, the Kingfisher feeder pipeline and the EACOP,” she said.
Nabiruma said the pipelines are also crossing the Murchison Falls-Albert Delta Ramsar wetland system, which is partly located within Murchison Falls National Park and forms part of the Victoria Nile basin.
The Kibale/Bukoora wetland, which forms part of the Sango Bay-Musambwa Island-Kagera (SAMUKA) Ramsar wetland system, is also among the affected ecosystems. The report further identifies Kafu wetland and other wetlands within the Lake Albert basin as being affected by the oil infrastructure.
The concerns documented by AFIEGO are also being raised by communities living near the oil infrastructure.
Kyakulumbye Gonzaga, a resident of Kakuuto village in Kakuuto Sub-county, Kyotera District, said residents are worried about the safety of their water sources following construction of the EACOP pipeline through the Kibaale/Bukoora wetland.
“The EACOP camp is based in our sub-county, and most of its pipelines were constructed through the Kibaale/Bukoora river and its tributaries like Kisoma tributary. They constructed the pipeline through the water, which is a big threat to the aquatic life and to us too because we use the water for cooking and drinking.” Gonzaga revealed.
The AFIEGO research also documents concerns about reduced water access for chimpanzees in Wambabya Forest in relation to the Kingfisher pipeline.
According to the report, communities said water was pumped from River Rutooha during construction activities, after which chimpanzees began entering residential areas in search of water.
Another community member from Hoima District affected by EACOP activities said blocked tributaries had reduced water flowing into Wambabya Forest, forcing chimpanzees into nearby communities.
“Water no longer flows into Wambabya forest very well because some tributaries belonging to Kanywabarogo were blocked. The forest is home to chimpanzees. These seem not to be getting water well anymore, so they come to the community to access water,” she said.
She said the chimpanzees destroy gardens when they leave the forest in search of water. “We no longer grow maize because the chimpanzees take it when they come out of the forest looking for water,” she added.
These findings emerge as civil society groups, environmental experts, and campaigners voice mounting concerns about the social and environmental toll of Uganda’s oil drive. Activists say land acquisition for the projects has already disrupted the lives of over 100,000 people.
Dickens Kamugisha, Executive Director of AFIEGO, said Uganda cannot achieve sustainable economic transformation by degrading the ecosystems that support citizens.
He emphasized that the research reveals Uganda’s oil activities are harming vital wetlands that millions of people depend on for their livelihoods.
Kamugisha called on the government to ensure that TotalEnergies EP Uganda (TEPU) and China National Offshore Oil Corporation Uganda Limited (CUL) remediate the harm caused to wetlands, while also urging the government to rethink oil production in the country.
In one of Witness Radio’s interviews with Dr. Patricia Litho, the Assistant Commissioner for Communication in the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Development, she acknowledged that there are potential risks associated with oil exploration and production, which is why the government established robust regulations, monitoring mechanisms, and contingency plans to prevent and respond to any environmental incidents.
She added that the government of Uganda is committed to ensuring that the oil projects are executed in an environmentally sustainable and responsible manner because it also understands the importance of preserving the natural heritage and biodiversity.
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