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Three-quarters of Earth’s land became permanently drier in last three decades: UN
Published
2 years agoon

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Aridity: The ‘existential crisis’ redefining life on Earth
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Five billion people could be affected by 2100
Riyadh, Saudi Arabia – Even as dramatic water-related disasters such as floods and storms intensified in some parts of the world, more than three-quarters of Earth’s land became permanently drier in recent decades, UN scientists warned today in a stark new analysis.
Some 77.6% of Earth’s land experienced drier conditions during the three decades leading up to 2020 compared to the previous 30-year period, according to the landmark report from the UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD).
Over the same period, drylands expanded by about 4.3 million km2 – an area nearly a third larger than India, the world’s 7th largest country – and now cover 40.6% of all land on Earth (excluding Antarctica).
In recent decades some 7.6% of global lands – an area larger than Canada – were pushed across aridity thresholds (i.e. from non-drylands to drylands, or from less arid dryland classes to more arid classes).
Most of these areas have transitioned from humid landscapes to drylands, with dire implications for agriculture, ecosystems, and the people living there.
And the research warns that, if the world fails to curb greenhouse gas emissions, another 3% of the world’s humid areas will become drylands by the end of this century.
In high greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, expanding drylands are forecast across the Midwestern United States, central Mexico, northern Venezuela, north-eastern Brazil, south-eastern Argentina, the entire Mediterranean Region, the Black Sea coast, large parts of southern Africa, and southern Australia.
The report, The Global Threat of Drying Lands: Regional and global aridity trends and future projections, was launched at the 16th conference of UNCCD’s nearly 200 Parties in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia (COP16), the largest UN land conference to date, and the first UNCCD COP to be held in the Middle East, a region profoundly affected by impacts from aridity.
“This analysis finally dispels an uncertainty that has long surrounded global drying trends,” says Ibrahim Thiaw, UNCCD Executive Secretary. “For the first time, the aridity crisis has been documented with scientific clarity, revealing an existential threat affecting billions around the globe.”
“Unlike droughts—temporary periods of low rainfall—aridity represents a permanent, unrelenting transformation,” he adds. “Droughts end. When an area’s climate becomes drier, however, the ability to return to previous conditions is lost. The drier climates now affecting vast lands across the globe will not return to how they were and this change is redefining life on Earth.”
The report by UNCCD Science-Policy Interface (SPI) — the UN body for assessing the science of land degradation and drought — points to human-caused climate change as the primary driver of this shift. Greenhouse gas emissions from electricity generation, transport, industry and land use changes warm the planet and other human activities warm the planet and affect rainfall, evaporation and plant life, creating the conditions that increase aridity.
Global aridity index (AI) data track these conditions and reveal widespread change over the decades.
Aridification hotspots
Areas particularly hard-hit by the drying trend include almost all of Europe (95.9% of its land), parts of the western United States, Brazil, parts of Asia (notably eastern Asia), and central Africa.
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Parts of the Western United States and Brazil: Significant drying trends, with water scarcity and wildfires becoming perennial hazards.
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Mediterranean and Southern Europe: Once considered agricultural breadbaskets, these areas face a stark future as semi-arid conditions expand.
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Central Africa and parts of Asia: Biologically megadiverse areas are experiencing ecosystem degradation and desertification, endangering countless species.
By contrast, less than a quarter of the planet’s land (22.4%) experienced wetter conditions, with areas in the central United States, Angola’s Atlantic coast, and parts of Southeast Asia showing some gains in moisture.
The overarching trend, however, is clear: drylands are expanding, pushing ecosystems and societies to suffer from aridity’s life-threatening impacts.
The report names South Sudan and Tanzania as nations with the largest percentage of land transitioning to drylands, and China as the country experiencing the largest total area shifting from non-drylands into drylands.
For the 2.3 billion people – well over 25% of the world’s population – living in the expanding drylands, this new normal requires lasting, adaptive solutions. Aridity-related land degradation, known as desertification, represents a dire threat to human well-being and ecological stability.
And as the planet continues to warm, report projections in the worst-case scenario suggest up to 5 billion people could live in drylands by the century’s end, grappling with depleted soils, dwindling water resources, and the diminishment or collapse of once-thriving ecosystems.
Forced migration is one of aridity’s most visible consequences. As land becomes uninhabitable, families and entire communities facing water scarcity and agricultural collapse often have no choice but to abandon their homes, leading to social and political challenges worldwide. From the Middle East to Africa and South Asia, millions are already on the move—a trend set to intensify in coming decades.
Aridity’s devastating impact
The effects of rising aridity are cascading and multifaceted, touching nearly every aspect of life and society, the report says.
It warns that one fifth of all land could experience abrupt ecosystem transformations from rising aridity by the end of the century, causing dramatic shifts (such as forests becoming grasslands and other changes) and leading to extinctions among many of the world’s plants, animals and other life.
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Aridity is considered the world’s largest single driver behind the degradation of agricultural systems, affecting 40% of Earth’s arable lands
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Rising aridity has been blamed for a 12% decline in gross domestic product (GDP) recorded for African countries between 1990–2015
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More than two thirds of all land on the planet (excluding Greenland and Antarctica) is projected to store less water by the end of the century, if greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise even modestly
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Aridity is considered one of the world’s five most important causes of land degradation (along with land erosion, salinization, organic carbon loss and vegetation degradation)
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Rising aridity in the Middle East has been linked to the region’s more frequent and larger sand and dust storms
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Increasing aridity is expected to play a role in larger and more intense wildfires in the climate-altered future—not least because of its impacts on tree deaths in semi-arid forests and the consequent growing availability of dry biomass for burning
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Rising aridity’s impacts on poverty, water scarcity, land degradation and insufficient food production have been linked to increasing rates of sickness and death globally —especially among children and women
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Rising aridity and drought play a key role in increasing human migration around the world—particularly in the hyper-arid and arid areas of southern Europe, the Middle East and North Africa and southern Asia.
Report marks a turning point
For years, documenting the rise of aridity proved a challenge, the report states. Its long-term nature and the intricate interplay of factors such as rainfall, evaporation, and plant transpiration made analysis difficult. Early studies produced conflicting results, often muddied by scientific caution.
The new report marks a turning point, leveraging advanced climate models and standardized methodologies to deliver a definitive assessment of global drying trends, confirming the inexorable rise of aridity, while providing critical insights into its underlying drivers and potential future trajectory.
Recommendations
The report offers a comprehensive roadmap for tackling aridity, emphasizing both mitigation and adaptation. Among its recommendations:
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Strengthen aridity monitoring
Integrate aridity metrics into existing drought monitoring systems. This approach would enable early detection of changes and help guide interventions before conditions worsen. Platforms like the new Aridity Visual Information Tool provide policymakers and researchers with valuable data, allowing for early warnings and timely interventions. Standardized assessments can enhance global cooperation and inform local adaptation strategies. -
Improve land use practices
Incentivizing sustainable land use systems can mitigate the impacts of rising aridity, particularly in vulnerable regions. Innovative, holistic, sustainable approaches to land management are the focus of another new UNCCD SPI report, Sustainable Land Use Systems: The path to collectively achieving Land Degradation Neutrality, available at https://bit.ly/3ZwkLZ3. It considers how land-use at one location affect others elsewhere, makes resilience to climate change or other shocks a priority, and encourages participation and buy-in by Indigenous and local communities as well as all levels of government. Projects like the Great Green Wall—a land restoration initiative spanning Africa—demonstrate the potential for large-scale, holistic efforts to combat aridity and restore ecosystems, while creating jobs and stabilizing economies. -
Invest in water efficiency
Technologies such as rainwater harvesting, drip irrigation, and wastewater recycling offer practical solutions for managing scarce water resources in dry regions. -
Build resilience in vulnerable communities
Local knowledge, capacity building, social justice and holistic thinking are vital to resilience. Sustainable land use systems encourage decision makers to apply responsible governance, protect human rights (including secure land access) and ensure accountability and transparency. Capacity-building programmes, financial support, education programmes, climate information services and community-driven initiatives empower those most affected by aridity to adapt to changing conditions. Farmers switching to drought-resistant crops or pastoralists adopting more arid-tolerant livestock exemplify incremental adaptation. -
Develop international frameworks and cooperation
The UNCCD’s Land Degradation Neutrality framework provides a model for aligning national policies with international goals, ensuring a unified response to the crisis. National Adaptation Plans must incorporate aridity alongside drought planning to create cohesive strategies that address water and land management challenges. Cross-sectoral collaboration at the global level, facilitated by frameworks like the UNCCD, is essential for scaling solutions.
Comments
“For decades, the world’s scientists have signalled that our growing greenhouse gas emissions are behind global warming. Now, for the first time, a UN scientific body is warning that burning fossil fuels is causing permanent drying across much of the world, too—with potentially catastrophic impacts affecting access to water that could push people and nature even closer to disastrous tipping points. As large tracts of the world’s land become more arid, the consequences of inaction grow increasingly dire and adaptation is no longer optional—it is imperative.” – UNCCD Chief Scientist Barron Orr
“Without concerted efforts, billions face a future marked by hunger, displacement, and economic decline. Yet, by embracing innovative solutions and fostering global solidarity, humanity can rise to meet this challenge. The question is not whether we have the tools to respond—it is whether we have the will to act.” – Nichole Barger, Chair, UNCCD Science-Policy Interface
“The report’s clarity is a wake-up call for policymakers: tackling aridity demands more than just science—it requires a diversity of perspectives and knowledge systems. By weaving Indigenous and local knowledge with cutting-edge data, we can craft stronger, smarter strategies to slow aridity’s advance, mitigate its impacts and thrive in a drying world.” – Sergio Vicente-Serrano, co-lead author of the report and an aridity expert with Spain’s Pyrenean Institute of Ecology
“This report underscores the critical need to address aridity as a defining global challenge of our time. By uniting diverse expertise and leveraging breakthrough technologies, we are not just measuring change—we are crafting a roadmap for resilience. Tackling aridity demands a collaborative vision that integrates innovation, adaptive solutions, and a commitment to securing a sustainable future for all.” – Narcisa Pricope, co-lead author, professor of geosciences and associate vice president for research at Mississippi State University, USA.
“The timeliness of this report cannot be overstated. Rising aridity will reshape the global landscape, challenging traditional ways of life and forcing societies to reimagine their relationship with land and water. As with climate change and biodiversity loss, addressing aridity requires coordinated international action and an unwavering commitment to sustainable development.” – Andrea Toreti, co-lead author and senior scientist, European Commission’s Joint Research Centre
By the Numbers:
Key global trends / projections
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77.6%: Proportion of Earth’s land that experienced drier climates from 1990–2020 compared to the previous 30 years.
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40.6%: Global land mass (excluding Antarctica) classified as drylands, up from 37.5% over the last 30 years.
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4.3 million km²: Humid lands transformed into drylands in the last three decades, an area one-third larger than India
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40%: Global arable land affected by aridity—the leading driver of agricultural degradation.
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30.9%: Global population living in drylands in 2020, up from 22.5% in 1990
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2.3 billion: People living in drylands in 2020, a doubling from 1990, projected to more than double again by 2100 under a worst-case climate change scenario.
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1.35 billion: Dryland inhabitants in Asia—more than half the global total.
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620 million: Dryland inhabitants in Africa—nearly half of the continent’s population.
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9.1%: Portion of Earth’s land classified as hyperarid, including the Atacama (Chile), Sahara (Africa), Namib (Africa), and Gobi (China/Mongolia) deserts.
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23%: Increase in global land at “moderate” to “very high” desertification risk by 2100 under the worst-case emissions scenario
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+8% at “very high” risk
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+5% at “high” risk
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+10% at “moderate” risk
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Environmental degradation
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5: Key drivers of land degradation: Rising aridity, land erosion, salinization, organic carbon loss, and vegetation degradation
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20%: Global land at risk of abrupt ecosystem transformations by 2100 due to rising aridity
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55%: Species (mammals, reptiles, fish, amphibians, and birds) at risk of habitat loss from aridity. Hotspots: (Arid regions): West Africa, Western Australia, Iberian Peninsula; (Humid regions): Southern Mexico, northern Amazon rainforest
Economics
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12%: African GDP decline attributed to aridity, 1990–2015
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16% / 6.7%: Projected GDP losses in Africa / Asia by 2079 under a moderate emissions scenario
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20M tons maize, 21M tons wheat, 19M tons rice: Expected losses in global crop yields by 2040 due to expanding aridity
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50%: Projected drop in maize yields in Kenya by 2050 under a high emissions scenario
Water
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90%: Rainfall in drylands that evaporates back into the atmosphere, leaving 10% for plant growth
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67%: Global land expected to store less water by 2100, even under moderate emission scenarios
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75%: Decline in water availability in the Middle East and North Africa since the 1950s
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40%: Predicted Andean runoff decline by 2100 under a high emissions scenario, threatening water supplies in South America
Health
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55%: Increase in severe child stunting in sub-Saharan Africa under a medium emissions scenario due to combined effects of aridity and climate warming
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Up to 12.5%: Estimated rise in mortality risks during sand and dust storms in China, 2013–2018
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57% / 38%: Increases in fine and coarse atmospheric dust levels, respectively, in the southwestern U.S. by 2100 under worst case climate scenarios
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220%: Projected increase in premature deaths due to airborne dust in the southwestern United States by 2100 under the high-emissions scenario
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160%: Expected rise in hospitalizations linked to airborne dust in the same region
Wildfires and forests
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74%: Expected increase in wildfire-burned areas in California by 2100 under high emission scenarios
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40: Additional annual high fire danger days in Greece by 2100 compared to late 20th century levels
Notes to editors:
Aridity versus drought
Highly arid regions are places in which a persistent, long-term climatic condition lacks available moisture to support most forms of life and atmospheric evaporative demand significantly exceeds rainfall.
Drought, on the other hand, is an anomalous, shorter-term period of water shortage affecting ecosystems and people and often attributed to low precipitation, high temperatures, low air humidity and/or anomalies in wind.
While drought is part of natural climate variability and can occur in almost any climatic regime, aridity is a stable condition for which changes occur over extremely long-time scales under significant forcing.
Media contacts: press@unccd.int
Fragkiska Megaloudi, +30 6945547877 (WhatsApp) fmegaloudi@unccd.int
Gloria Pallares, +34 606 93 1460 gpallares@unccd.int
Terry Collins, +1-416-878-8712 tc@tca.tc
Authors and other experts are available for advance interviews.
The full report, The Global Threat of Drying Lands: Regional and global aridity trends and future projections, is available for media preview at https://www.unccd.int/resources/reports/global-threat-drying-lands-regional-and-global-aridity-trends-and-future
Original Source: unccd.int
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East African Community member states launched public hearings this week for the Seed and Plant Variety Bill 2025, marking a significant step in shaping the region’s agricultural future.
Published
1 day agoon
August 28, 2026
By the Witness Radio team
Starting August 24th, the East African member states opened a five-day window for researchers, policymakers, civil society organizations, and small-scale farmers to share their insights and concerns on the East African Community Seed and Plant Variety Bill 2025 as it moves toward its second reading in the East African Legislative Assembly.
Countries including Uganda, Kenya, Tanzania, Rwanda, and Burundi have been actively consulting citizens, inviting people from all walks of life to share their experiences and perspectives openly.
This follows the bill’s introduction in 2025 and its passage through legislative procedures, including tabling and the first reading in EALA in mid-2025.
According to EALA, the public hearings provide a critical opportunity for stakeholders to examine the Bill from multiple perspectives and contribute practical recommendations before the Assembly’s final consideration.
From farmers and seed companies to researchers, civil society, regulators, parliamentarians, women and youth in agribusiness, development partners, and private sector leaders, every voice brings experience that can shape stronger legislation and pave the way for successful implementation.
Following the high-level openings, partner states are rolling out national and regional consultations guided by the East African Legislative Assembly Committee on Agriculture, Tourism and Natural Resources. Uganda began its hearings on the 26th, while Rwanda and Kenya launched theirs on August 27, 2026. Other partner countries are also conducting the hearings.
During the launch in Uganda, East African Legislative Assembly Member, Hon. Rose Akol, said the Bill is intended to ease access to seed across the region by reducing barriers created by differing national requirements.
“The preamble of the Bill is meant to ease access to plant and seed varieties by farmers in the Community, so as not to make it difficult for them to access seeds because of non-tariff barriers where countries have their own standards and requirements in terms of registration, certification and laboratory testing,” Akol said on Wednesday.
She said harmonizing standards across Partner States would make it easier for farmers to obtain seed from other countries within the region.
“Once the member states have a harmonized law applying the same standards, it will be easier for farmers to access seeds from across borders,” she added.
In Kenya, the EALA parliamentary committee on Agriculture, Tourism and Natural Resources held key consultative meetings with bodies such as the Kenya Plant Health Inspectorate Service (KEPHIS) and the Ministry of Agriculture on the regional seed variety framework, as well as researchers and farmer organizations.
Kenyan member of the East African Legislative Assembly (EALA) Committee on Agriculture, Tourism and Natural Resources, Sankok Ole David, urged participants at every level to champion inclusivity and help craft agricultural regulations grounded in real evidence.
He warned that overreliance on seeds farmers cannot replant could create vulnerabilities if commercial supply chains are disrupted.
“Every season you have to go to the market. Suppose that market closes, what will happen to our food sovereignty and our food security?” Sankok asked.
The Kenyan discussions come against the backdrop of a broader legal debate over farmers’ rights to save, exchange and share seed.
In November 2025, Kenya’s High Court declared several provisions of the country’s Seeds and Plant Varieties Act unconstitutional after 15 smallholder farmers challenged restrictions on the sharing, exchange and sale of unregistered and uncertified seed.
Justice Rhoda Rutto found that seed saving, sharing and exchange form part of the cultural practices of Kenyan farming communities and that restrictions on indigenous seeds violated constitutional protections.
The court also found that some of the restrictions undermined the right to adequate food and could create economic dependency on commercial breeders.
The Kenyan ruling does not determine the outcome of the EAC Bill, which is a separate regional legislative process. However, it provides a recent example of the legal questions that can arise when formal seed regulation intersects with farmer-managed seed systems.
In Uganda, Civil society organizations (CSOs), Center for Food and Adequate Living Rights (CEFROHT), Participatory Ecological Land Use Management (PELUM), Eastern and Southern Africa Small Scale Farmers’ Forum (ESAFF), smallholder farmer groups, and regional trade stakeholders presented divergent positions on seed sovereignty versus commercial seed harmonization through discussions and position papers on the bill.
The Executive Director for CEFROHT, Dr. David Kabanda, who also led CSOs in Uganda in the consultation process, called for improved, further considered, and scrutinized provisions.
Kabanda says the proposed law should recognize the role farmers already play in maintaining and developing seed systems.
“We want the Bill to recognize that the formal seed sector is not the only seed system. Farmer-managed seed systems are already supporting millions of smallholder farmers, conserving agricultural biodiversity and contributing to food security,” he said.
Kabanda notes that the bill’s memorandum is silent on farmer-managed seed systems, which supply 70% to 80% of all seed planted by smallholder farmers in East Africa.
“The memorandum is silent on Farmer Managed Seed Systems, yet these systems supply between 70 and 80 percent of the seed planted by smallholder farmers in East Africa,” Kabanda said.
The organizations are proposing an amendment to the memorandum to explicitly recognize farmer rights and Farmer Managed Seed Systems as complementary to the formal seed sector, alongside issues including conservation of agrobiodiversity, biosafety, food security and food sovereignty.
If passed into law, the Act would establish common approaches to plant variety evaluation, testing, release, registration and marketing, while creating a regional framework for protecting plant breeders’ rights.
Supporters say harmonization could reduce regulatory barriers between Partner States, facilitate cross-border seed trade and make it easier for farmers to access quality seed. Critics, however, say common standards should not prevent farmers from continuing to preserve, exchange and select seed according to local environmental conditions and farming needs.
Protecting smallholder farmers is particularly significant in a region where smallholder farming accounts for about 75 percent of agricultural production.
For farmers who depend on locally managed seed, the outcome of the legislative process could determine how much space remains for traditional seed-saving, exchange and selection alongside the formal commercial seed sector.
But the committee emphasized that these hearings are designed as an inclusive platform, empowering stakeholders to shape the legislative process and drive evidence-based recommendations to strengthen agricultural regulation across East Africa.
These hearings are collecting vital feedback on a unified regional approach to plant variety evaluation, seed certification, testing, marketing, and plant breeders’ rights. The committee will weave these insights into a formal report, shaping recommendations before the Bill’s second reading in the East African Legislative Assembly.
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EAC Seed Bill: Uganda launches public consultations as debates spark over safeguarding smallholder and indigenous seed rights.
Published
2 days agoon
August 27, 2026
By the Witness Radio team.
Uganda has begun public consultations on the proposed East African Community Seeds and Plant Varieties Bill, 2025, bringing together farmers, researchers, regulators, policymakers, and other stakeholders to explore how this regional law could reshape access to seed, farmers’ rights, and seed systems throughout East Africa.
The consultations are part of wider public hearings across EAC Partner States before the Bill is considered by the East African Legislative Assembly (EALA).
The proposed legislation seeks to harmonize seed regulation across the region by establishing common procedures for plant variety evaluation and release, seed certification and plant variety protection.
Its proponents say harmonizing the rules would make it easier for quality seed to move across borders, reduce duplication of regulatory requirements, and encourage investment in the regional seed sector.
Yet these consultations have sparked questions about whether the regional framework can truly safeguard indigenous seed systems, farmers’ rights, biodiversity, and food sovereignty while welcoming commercial seed companies.
East African Legislative Assembly Member of Parliament Rose Akol chaired the first hearing in Uganda. She and her team examined provisions of the Bill that participants said required clarification or modification, including issues around seed certification and the movement of seed between Partner States.
Akol said the Bill aims to ease access to seed across the region by reducing barriers from differing national requirements.
“The preamble of the Bill is meant to ease access to plant and seed varieties by farmers in the community, so as not to make it difficult for them to access seeds because of non-tariff barriers where countries have their own standards and requirements in terms of registration, certification and laboratory testing,” Akol said.
One concern was how a harmonized certification system would operate across countries with different laws, standards, registration requirements, laboratory-testing procedures, and regulatory systems.
She said harmonizing standards across Partner States would make it easier for farmers to obtain seed from other countries within the region.
“Once the member states have a harmonized law applying the same standards, it will be easier for farmers to access seeds from across borders,” she added.
The East African Community Seeds and Plant Varieties Bill, 2025, is designed to create a common regional framework for seed regulation, plant variety evaluation and release, seed certification and plant variety protection.
The Bill also seeks to promote investment and innovation in the seed sector while supporting food security and sustainable agricultural development.
Moses Edward Erongu, a Senior Agriculture Inspector at the National Seed Certification Service in the Ministry of Agriculture, Animal Industry and Fisheries, said the consultations were important because they allowed stakeholders to examine and validate the provisions of the proposed law.
He said harmonization could make it easier for farmers to obtain seed from other EAC countries and create opportunities for seed companies to invest in production within the region.
“If we harmonize this law, it will be easier for investors to establish anywhere because they will no longer fear the different regulatory regimes. They can look at comparative advantages—for Uganda, for example, where we have two seasons—and seed companies would be interested in investing here, producing seed in Uganda and supplying other parts of the region. That creates employment for our people and income for farmers who will be engaged as out-growers.”
Still, worries linger that greater commercialization and regional harmonization might threaten the livelihoods of farmers relying on locally produced, farmer-managed seed.
When Witness Radio asked whether the proposed Bill could leave smallholder farmers dependent on commercial seed companies, Erongu rejected the suggestion that the legislation could result in “seed slavery.”
“There is nothing like seed slavery. This encourages farmers to access seeds because smallholder farmers are the ones who utilize the seed,” he added. Making seed more accessible would allow smallholder farmers to benefit from improved agricultural technologies and potentially increase their productivity and returns.
“If you don’t make procedures easier for them to get seed, they are kept out of the technology. As technology grows, they remain excluded and continue using inferior seed material, which means they cannot get a gainful return from their farming efforts,” Erongu added.
Traders at the consultations voiced support for harmonized regional rules, arguing that lifting non-tariff barriers could ease the transport of seed and other agricultural inputs across EAC borders.
Meanwhile, civil society organizations and farmer-rights advocates are set to share their perspectives on the proposed legislation in full later today, 27 August 2026.
Their stance will carry significant weight, as the Bill addresses crucial issues such as farmers’ rights to save, exchange, and access seed; the safeguarding of indigenous seed systems; biodiversity; and the influence of commercial seed companies.
Public hearings continue today, with stakeholders poised to offer more insights before the proposed regional law moves forward to its next stage.
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AGRA at 20: New report reignites debate over Africa’s farm model
Published
3 days agoon
August 26, 2026Twenty years after AGRA’s launch, a report built on 18 years of FAO data paints a contrasting picture: fertiliser use and crop area surged, overall yields disappointed and undernourishment rose in the focus countries.
On 24 August 2026, a report presented in Dakar for the twentieth anniversary of the Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa (AGRA) scrutinised nearly two decades of public and philanthropic support for a model built on fertilisers, commercial seeds and subsidies, just as the African Union fine‑tunes its 2026‑2035 agricultural strategy. Drawing on 18 years of FAO data for 13 countries targeted by AGRA, the document concludes that input use and cultivated area have risen sharply, while productivity gains have been more modest than expected and undernourishment has increased significantly.
According to the analysis, fertiliser use in the focus countries more than doubled between 2006 and 2024, while cultivated area grew by 46 %; yet average annual yield growth for the main crops reached only 1.2 %, compared with 1.3 % in the twelve years preceding AGRA’s creation. This finding echoes work published a few days earlier by the Alliance for Food Sovereignty in Africa (AFSA) and a Tufts University researcher, who argue that the original promise to double smallholders’ yields and incomes while halving hunger has not been met in the participating countries.
Maize‑centred gains at the expense of crop diversity
The authors point out that maize, the flagship crop of this approach, shows contrasted performance: yields are reported to have increased by 40 %, but on the back of a 71 % expansion in maize area, while yields for millet fell by 17 %, for roots and tubers by 10 % and for groundnuts by 11 %. This reallocation has reduced the share of millet and sorghum in cultivated land from about 26 % to 16 %, even though these cereals remain central to diets and climate resilience across large Sahelian and Sudanian zones.
Farmer networks and agroecology experts stress that this shift of land and public support towards hybrid maize and nitrogen fertiliser has increased farms’ dependence on imported inputs and weakened food systems built on traditional cereals, legumes and root crops.
Rising undernourishment in the focus countries
The report links these technical choices to food security trends: in the studied countries, the number of chronically undernourished people is estimated to have risen from 94.6 million in 2004‑2006 to 149.6 million in 2022‑2024, a 58 % increase, with Nigeria accounting for a large share of the deterioration. This trajectory matches the estimates used by AFSA and its partners, who recall that AGRA originally set a goal of halving undernourishment in its focus countries, a target later revised under the AGRA 3.0 strategy.
The authors underline, however, that national situations diverge: Ethiopia and Ghana have reduced the number of undernourished people, while Nigeria accounts for more than half of the increase and countries such as Malawi have seen hunger rise despite higher cereal yields.
Senegal as a comparator outside the AGRA focus group
Beyond the AGRA countries, Senegal is used as a comparator; the report notes stronger performance on some yield indicators without claiming causality, and highlights the role of greater crop diversity and locally anchored agroecological initiatives. Senegalese agroecology specialists recall that the country combines targeted input schemes with support for value chains such as millet, cowpea and irrigated horticulture, partly limiting the monoculture effects observed in some AGRA focus states while leaving open questions around soil fertility and exposure to external markets.
The 2026‑2035 agricultural strategy shaped by AGRA’s scorecard
As the African Union finalises its 2026‑2035 continental agricultural strategy under the CAADP/Malabo framework, AGRA’s evaluations are feeding a broader debate on how to combine public investment, development‑finance institutions and family farming in transforming food systems. A report released in March 2026 by AFSA on African Development Bank‑backed farm projects already pointed to a persistent bias towards input‑intensive models, at the expense of diversification, soil fertility and farmer‑managed seed systems.
The Dakar report explicitly recommends that African agricultural policies give more weight to crop diversification, agroecology, farmer‑managed seed systems, soil fertility, public research and extension services, instead of treating commercial inputs as the sole engine of transformation.
Upcoming AFSA report on twenty years of the Green Revolution
These findings will feed into the discussion around AFSA’s report The Green Revolution Has Failed Africa: Twenty Years of Evidence and What Works Instead, to be launched on 24 August 2026 at a continental webinar on lessons from the AGRA experience and farmer‑led alternatives. AGRA, for its part, is marking its twentieth anniversary by highlighting a shift in its mandate towards food systems and policy support, emphasising closer partnerships with governments, research centres and the private sector to strengthen the foundations of agricultural productivity.
For now, the quantified scorecard presented in Dakar and the parallel release of AFSA’s review send a clear signal that the coming decade of African agriculture will have to arbitrate more explicitly between subsidies for inputs, crop diversification and the scale‑up of agroecological models before the 2026‑2035 strategy is formally adopted.
Source: capmad.com
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- Land And Environment Rights In Uganda Experiences From Karamoja And Mid Western Sub Regions
- REPARATORY AND CLIMATE JUSTICE MUST BE AT THE CORE OF COP30, SAY GLOBAL LEADERS AND MOVEMENTS
- LAND GRABS AT GUNPOINT REPORT IN KIRYANDONGO DISTRICT
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- The Mouila Declaration of the Informal Alliance against the Expansion of Industrial Monocultures
- FORCED LAND EVICTIONS IN UGANDA TRENDS RIGHTS OF DEFENDERS IMPACT AND CALL FOR ACTION
Legal Framework
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MEDIA FOR CHANGE NETWORK2 weeks agoMinister Nabakooba wants special land title issuance halted
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