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Food inflation: The math doesn’t add up without factoring in corporate power

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Large farmers’ protests broke out in at least 65 countries over the past year. From India to Kenya through Colombia and France, desperation has hit a breaking point. Farmers warn that without better prices and more protection, their future is at risk. Peasant movements like La Via Campesina, for over three decades now, have denounced the World Trade Organisation and the growing number of bilateral free trade agreements for destroying their livelihoods.

However, these protests unfold against the backdrop of record-high global food prices. The prices spiked first during the pandemic and then again at the start of the war in Ukraine hitting an all-time high in 2022. Food prices have been rising faster than other products: if the global general consumer price index (CPI) doubled between 2021 and 2022, the food CPI inflation almost tripled. According to the World Food Organisation (FAO) food price index, even if international prices have moderated in 2023, they are still higher than in 2019 (see Graph 1). And all indications are that this is a crisis of prices, and not a food shortage at the global level. For the past 20 years, world grain production has exceeded available stocks.

The impact of these food price increases on millions of people, especially the poor, is devastating. In 2022, 9.2% of the world’s population was chronically hungry, an increase of 122 million people since 2019.

But, as this year’s farmers’ protests make clear, the increase in food prices is not going into their pockets. So, who is benefiting from these food price rises?

Volatility by design

The FAO and corporate executives have attributed recent food price increases to disruptive supply chains for oil, gas, fertilisers and staple goods. This is a half truth, and thus deceptive. They don’t mention how the current structure of the food system encourages and amplifies such disruptions.

For decades, the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have promoted structural adjustment policies, and green revolution technologies (hybrid seeds + chemical pesticides and fertilisers) across the world. We now have a global food system designed around the production of a small number of agricultural commodities (wheat, rice, maize, soybeans, palm oil) in a few areas of the world totally devoted to the massive industrial production of monocultures dependent on the supply of inputs, and concentrated in the hands of a few companies. Any disruptions within this global system, be it war or drought, can have major impacts on people’s access to food.

This is particularly acute in countries of the global South that are now highly dependent on food imports because of policies imposed on them through multilateral banks and free trade agreements. Moreover, we are entering a period of intense climate crisis, water crisis, geopolitical tensions, and declining crop yield gains that are set to generate more frequent and more severe disruptions.

For some, however, this volatility is an opportunity. Because of deliberate policies implemented since the 1980s (see box), there is today a large and growing part of the financial sector that profits from shifts in food prices using what are called “derivatives”. In theory, the use of these instruments helps buyers and sellers to lock in prices and protect themselves against the risk of price fluctuations. The most common and important of these instruments are futures contracts, which are agreements to buy or sell agricultural commodities at a specified future date. In futures markets, it is not the agricultural product itself that is traded, but the contract. The price of the contract changes according to supply and demand. But price variations on the futures markets have a direct influence on price fluctuation of the goods to which the futures contract relate. For example, if the price of a wheat futures contract rises, this indicates that the estimated future price of wheat is high. Consequently, the real current price of wheat rises. With increased activity in the financial futures markets, food trading has come to be referenced to futures prices. In a vicious circle, the volatility of food prices attracts more speculative money into the commodity futures market. This, in turn, amplifies the volatility of the futures markets and pushes up or down real food prices.

The price volatility experienced during the 2007 – 2008 food price crisis was partly a result of a surge in financial speculation. Similarly, when the war in Ukraine began, investments in commodity futures and commodity-linked funds rocketed. Speculative positions in the Paris wheat market increased from 35 million euros in January 2021 to 1 billion euros in March 2022. A report by IPES-Food found that the price of wheat on futures markets rose 54% in nine days, and the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission noted that volatility was 20% higher than normal. While this drove price increases that penalised consumers, hedge funds and pension funds speculating on food markets made huge profits.
The world’s agricultural trading companies have also benefited massively from this situation, including through their participation in financial markets. In 2022, profits achieved by the top five firms in this sector doubled and even tripled compared to the period 2016 – 2020. A report by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development found that corporate profits of global food traders “appear to be strongly linked to periods of excessive speculation in commodity markets and to the growth of shadow banking – an unregulated financial sector that operates outside traditional banking institutions”.

They have some important advantages over purely financial players. For one, as ‘commercial actors’ they are not subject to the same restrictions or regulations of financial actors on commodity trading markets. Also, because of their global presence they have the most in-depth and up-to-date information about the availability of products and are the first to know about poor harvests or bumper crops. A study by SOMO found that the largest agricultural commodity trading companies ADM, Bunge, Cargill, COFCO International and Louis Dreyfus (usually referred to as “ABCCD”) control 73% of the global grain and oilseed trade as well as a combined 1 million hectares of farmland.

A perverse and well prepared alignment of the stars in the 1980s

Three parallel developments in the 1980s were key to financialising the global food system. First, the liberalisation of agricultural markets was promoted by the World Bank and other international agencies. Until then, governments in different regions had adopted policies to protect farmers from production risks. Second, financial markets were deregulated in the United States and investment banks and commodity trading firms began marketing index funds that tracked the prices of various commodities. In addition, large institutional investors (such as pension funds) sought to diversify their investments. To hedge their risks, they increased their investments in commodity derivatives and physical assets. As a result, a growing number of financial players began to speculate on food prices.

Third, like other companies, agribusiness companies experienced a dramatic shift in ownership with the entry of large asset management firms. CEO salaries became linked to the value of shares, creating a strong incentive to restructure companies in ways that generated more profit for shareholders. To this end, mergers and acquisitions multiplied, laying the foundations for today’s deep corporate concentration in the agri-food sector.

Source: Jennifer Clapp and S. Ryan Isakson, “Speculative Harvests: Financialization, Food, and Agriculture”, Agrarian Change & Peasant Studies, 2021.

Price manipulation and sellers’ inflation

Financial markets are not the only space where big agribusiness and food companies have an impact on food prices. A growing number of voices, such as the economist Isabella Weber, point to the monopoly power of corporations as a major factor in recent price inflation, including with food. What they call “sellers’ inflation” happens in contexts of supply-chain bottlenecks and cost shocks. When price hikes in upstream sectors (such as the gas needed for fertilisers) spread along the supply chain, companies in downstream sectors pass on cost increases to protect margins and even take the opportunity to increase margins. They can raise prices knowing that all their competitors will do the same.

Such strategies are only possible in contexts where a handful of companies have the power to set prices, as is the case in the food and agriculture sector. For example, just four companies, Bayer, Corteva, Syngenta and BASF control half of the seed market and 75% of the global agrochemicals market. Since 2018, their profits have nearly doubled. On the fertilisers side, the global market is controlled by a small number of companies. Four of them control a third of all nitrogen fertiliser production. From 2018 to 2022, the profits of the top 9 fertiliser corporations more than tripled, as they increased prices far beyond the production costs. Another example can be found in the world’s second largest meat processor, Tyson. The company more than doubled its margins and profits at the end of 2021. This was due to price increases it initiated and then continued to raise to protect margins against cost pressures from grain prices. A similar strategy was followed by large branders as Nestlé, Unilever and Mondelez who increased prices and ended by recording high profits in 2022.

This combination of monopoly power and unregulated activity in financial markets allows agricultural commodity traders, big agribusiness and food companies to make huge profits from food price rises.

Countering corporate power in food systems

The big culprit when it comes to today’s high food prices for consumers and low prices for farmers is corporate power. The climate crisis will only make this situation worse, unless urgent actions are taken to dismantle corporate power and shift to more localised food systems, based on diversified food production and catered to people’s food needs. The struggle against free trade agreements, at the forefront of many of today’s farmers’ protests, is therefore critical.

At the same time, actions are needed to reign in the power of those actors in the casino economy who are amplifying food price volatility and increases. When it comes to financial speculation, an important driver in food price volatility, regulations need to be tightened. And, to tackle the so-called “sellers’ inflation”, we need measures to prevent profiteering, which could include taxes on windfall profits anti-trust measures, and, more importantly public controls over food prices and programmes that ensure a fair, equitable and secure distribution of nutritious foods to everyone.

Source: grain.org

  • TXJCX1 Jason Kelly, a trader in the Wheat Options pit at the CME Group throws up his arms as traders toss confetti at the closing bell for the year on December 31, 2009 in Chicago. UPI/Brian Kersey

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Uganda is grappling with mounting land struggles as the needs of refugees collide with the rights and hopes of the communities that host them.

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By the Witness Radio team.

For more than ten years, hundreds of families in Kikuube District have fought to piece their lives back together after losing their land to the ever-expanding Kyangwali Refugee Settlement.

One such person is Mr. Ahumuza Busingye, a community leader who recalls how, in 2013, many families were uprooted when the government seized their land to make room for more refugees.

“We have been suffering since 2013 when we were evicted from our land to expand Kyangwali camp. “The problem is we are often displaced from fertile land which is given to refugees. That hurts us. Our families have grown, but we have no place to settle them. We now live in an informal settlement with no land to farm and sustain ourselves,” said Mr. Busingye.

Mr. Busingye’s experience mirrors a rising dilemma in Uganda, a nation celebrated worldwide for its welcoming approach to refugees. Unlike countries that restrict refugees to camps, Uganda offers land for settlement, freedom to move, opportunities to work and start businesses, and access to schools, healthcare, and public services. These progressive policies have transformed Uganda into Africa’s largest haven for refugees and one of the most significant hosts on the planet.

Yet, even as Uganda’s refugee policy draws global praise, tough questions linger about how the country can keep protecting refugees without sacrificing the land rights, livelihoods, and futures of its own people.

This challenge formed the central theme of an X Spaces discussion organized by UCOBAC (Uganda Community Based Association for Women and Children Welfare) in partnership with AWO International and co-hosted by NBS TV under the theme, “Understanding Land Governance: Issues Affecting Refugee and Host Communities in Uganda.”

The event brought together voices from government, academia, humanitarian groups, and the legal sector to tackle rising land governance issues in refugee-hosting districts and to seek ways for refugees and host communities to live together in harmony.

Uganda now shelters almost 1.9 million refugees and asylum seekers, most of them women and children escaping violence in South Sudan, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and nearby nations. As new arrivals pour in and families grow, the hunger for land intensifies, sparking fresh challenges for both refugees and the communities that welcome them.

Dr. Brian Makabayi, a lecturer in the Department of Geomatics and Land Management at Makerere University, argued that refugee settlements should no longer be viewed as temporary humanitarian interventions.

“The issue is not only humanitarian assistance where we are trying to solve the problem temporarily. These communities have stayed for long periods, and if these issues are not properly managed, they can become violent,” he said.

Citing research from districts like Adjumani, Makabayi pointed out that refugees now make up nearly half the population in some places. As families expand but land stays the same, the struggle for space grows ever more intense.

“Many refugees lease farmland from host communities to supplement the small plots allocated to them. However, conflicts often emerge when landowners decide to reclaim their land for personal use, sale, or lease to other people before previous agreements expire.” He further added.

Ms. Claire Birungi Agaba, the Information, Counseling and Legal Assistance Specialist at the Norwegian Refugee Council, said many of the land disputes her organization handles arise from informal and undocumented land agreements.

She explained that land transactions between refugees and host communities are frequently based on verbal agreements without written records specifying land size, duration of use, payment arrangements or responsibilities of each party. As a result, disputes over boundaries, crop destruction, unexpected evictions and changing rental terms have become increasingly common.

“Many host families themselves occupy customary land that has never been formally documented, making it difficult to prove ownership whenever disagreements arise.”  She said.

Responding to concerns about land acquisition, Agnes Baseera, Protection Officer (Legal) in the Office of the Prime Minister’s Department of Refugees, said the government does not allocate land for refugee settlements arbitrarily.

According to Baseera, establishing refugee settlements involves close collaboration between the Office of the Prime Minister, district local governments, line ministries, development partners and host communities.

She explained that before any land is designated, the government verifies ownership, assesses the suitability of the land and considers factors such as security, access to water, food availability and the capacity of social services.

“The host communities are always part of this process,” Baseera said, adding that consultation remains central to the government’s refugee settlement policy.

Eunice Nabakwa, Principal Land Officer at the Ministry of Lands, Housing and Urban Development, argued that securing customary land rights is essential to reducing future conflicts.

She noted that more than 75 percent of Uganda’s land is held under customary tenure, much of it without formal documentation. Since many refugee settlements are located on customary land, uncertainty over ownership and boundaries often fuels disputes.

To address this, the Ministry is implementing systematic land adjudication, demarcation, mapping and certification programs, including the issuance of Certificates of Customary

Ownership (CCOs).

These initiatives are intended to formally recognize customary land rights, strengthen tenure security, clarify boundaries and improve local land administration.

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As TotalEnergies’ profits soar, calls are growing for the company to answer for the human rights abuses and environmental damage linked to EACOP.

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By the Witness Radio team.

While French oil giant TotalEnergies boasts multi-billion-dollar profits, campaigners against the East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP) are intensifying demands for the company to face up to the social, environmental, and human rights consequences of its oil ventures in Uganda and Tanzania.

These renewed demands come on the heels of TotalEnergies announcing a staggering US$5.4 billion net profit for the first quarter of 2026, a 29 percent jump from the previous year. While shareholders revel in record-breaking earnings, campaigners point out that communities along the EACOP route are left to shoulder the burdens of displacement, lost livelihoods, and environmental harm.

TotalEnergies is the largest shareholder and lead developer of the East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP), holding a 62 percent stake in the pipeline company. Other shareholders include the Uganda National Oil company (15%), the Tanzania Petroleum Development Corporation (15%), and China National Offshore Oil Corporation (8%). As the majority shareholder, TotalEnergies oversees key decisions concerning the construction, financing, and management of the 1,443-kilometer heated crude oil pipeline that will transport oil from Uganda’s Albertine region to Tanzania’s Port Tanga.

Civil society groups across East Africa warn that TotalEnergies’ financial windfall has come at a steep price for the communities living in the shadow of the pipeline.

Environmental campaigners, including Sherelee Odayar of Greenpeace Africa, Zaki Mamdoo of Stop EACOP, Ziadah Kasimu of Green Conservers, Rukiya Khamis of 350Africa.org, and Balach Bakundane, an EACOP host community representative from Uganda, argue that local people continue to shoulder the social and economic burdens of fossil fuel extraction while corporations reap enormous profits.

Speaking during a discussion on fossil fuel accountability, Rukiya Khamis from 350 Africa- Kenya criticized governments for granting tax incentives to multinational oil companies. At the same time, ordinary citizens struggle with rising living costs.

“We were experiencing massive hikes in utility bills and retail prices. If you are in Kenya, you realize the price of milk was high, the price of bread was high, and the price of basic commodities became increasingly unaffordable. Yet, fossil fuel companies continued receiving subsidies and were free to raise prices.” Rukiya added.

She cautioned that pouring more investment into fossil fuels would only worsen the climate crisis, leaving vulnerable communities even more exposed to devastating climate disasters.

For those living along the EACOP pipeline, the promised benefits remain little more than empty words.

Balach Bakundane, who works with the EACOP Host communities in Uganda, said residents were promised employment opportunities, improved infrastructure, better healthcare services, and enhanced livelihoods. Instead, he says, many families have experienced land loss, declining incomes, and restrictions on fishing activities around affected water bodies.

“It is unbearable and very painful to see TotalEnergies announcing huge profits while our communities continue to lose their dignity, cultural values, and livelihoods. These profits are being made at our expense.” Balach revealed.

Bakundane also noted that fishing communities have been hit hard, losing access to vital parts of the lake due to oil operations.

“It is a very clear indicator that this is a neocolonial project that has no regard for our human rights, cultural values and our livelihood.” He further added.

Greenpeace Africa activist Sherelee Odayar called on African governments to rethink the generous tax breaks and investment perks handed to multinational fossil fuel giants.

She argued that governments should instead enforce the “polluter pays” principle, making companies behind greenhouse gas emissions pay their fair share for climate adaptation, disaster recovery, and compensation to affected communities.

“These companies should not be allowed to privatize the gains while socializing the costs. The extraordinary profits generated from fossil fuels should help finance climate adaptation, loss and damage, and support communities already suffering the impacts of climate change.” Odayar said, adding that accountability should accompany profits.

In Tanzania, activist Ziadah Kasimu of Green Conservers raised alarms about the lack of genuine community consultation and the displacement of thousands of residents uprooted by the pipeline.

She described how women, fishing communities in Tanga, pastoralists in Singida, and farming families have all seen their livelihoods upended by land grabs and new barriers to natural resources.

Kasimu insisted that affected communities deserve clear information, a real voice in decisions, and fair accountability for how the project’s benefits are shared.

“The profits belong only to them, but TotalEnergies and EACOP ignore the benefits for communities. We need transparent and timely information, and monitoring systems that communities themselves can access because this is our land.” She further said.

She emphasized that while communities value development, investments must respect human rights and follow just procedures. These calls for accountability grow louder as legal challenges against EACOP mount.

Earlier this year, four Ugandan farmers filed a case before the UK High Court seeking to have Ugandan constitutional, environmental, and climate laws applied to EACOP Ltd, the UK-registered company responsible for financing the pipeline.

According to Human Rights Watch, more than 100,000 people in Uganda and Tanzania are expected to lose land or access to land because of the pipeline and associated oil infrastructure.

Similarly, advocacy reports by Global Aktion have documented allegations of forced displacement, restrictions on civic space, and adverse impacts on communities affected by the project.

In 2025, BankTrack also urged financial institutions supporting EACOP to reconsider their involvement, citing concerns over environmental destruction and impacts on local livelihoods.

Campaigners point out that TotalEnergies keeps posting robust profits, even as criticism against the company intensifies.

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Researchers sound the alarm: Uganda’s oil development threatens the nation’s vital wetlands.

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By the Witness Radio team.

Uganda is set to launch commercial oil production in late September, but researchers caution that this rapid petroleum push could endanger the country’s precious wetlands, wildlife, and rich biodiversity.

This warning arrives as Uganda nears its long-awaited first oil, almost twenty years after crude was first discovered in the Albertine Graben.

In a recent post on the X platform, formerly Twitter, by the Petroleum Authority of Uganda (PAU), Uganda’s statutory body mandated to monitor and regulate the exploration, development, and production, together with the refining, gas conversion, transportation, and storage of petroleum in Uganda, it indicated that the country’s major oil projects are progressing towards production. As of June 30, 2026, the Tilenga project was 74 percent complete, with 234 wells drilled, exceeding the minimum 170 wells required for production.

The Kingfisher project had reached 79 percent completion. In comparison, the East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP) stood at about 90 percent overall progress, with more than 1,443 kilometers of pipeline welded across Uganda and Tanzania.

In July, Irene Bateebe, the Permanent Secretary in the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Development, said Uganda was on course to begin commercial oil production in September.

Speaking during a retreat for Ugandan diplomats organized by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Kampala, Bateebe said the country’s upstream oil projects and export infrastructure were in their final stages, with first oil expected soon.

Yet as Uganda edges toward commercial oil production, a fresh study from the Africa Institute for Energy Governance (AFIEGO) raises red flags about the environmental fallout, especially for wetlands, biodiversity, and the communities whose lives are intertwined with them.

The 31-page AFIEGO report, titled “Siltation, Noisy Generators & Air Pollution: Documenting Oil Sector Damage to Murchison Falls National Park & Uganda’s Wetlands,” documents the impacts of oil pipeline construction and related activities under the Tilenga and Kingfisher upstream projects, as well as EACOP.

The research, conducted between March and June 2026, is based on interviews and focus group discussions with oil-host communities and tourism-sector stakeholders in Buliisa, Hoima, Kikuube, Kakumiro and Kyotera districts.

The report identifies several oil infrastructure projects that are affecting wetlands, including the Victoria Nile Pipeline Crossing under the Tilenga project, the Kingfisher feeder pipeline and EACOP.

The affected ecosystems include the Murchison Falls-Albert Delta Ramsar wetland system, Kibale/Bukoora wetland, Sango Bay-Musambwa Island-Kagera (SAMUKA) Ramsar wetland system and Kafu wetland, as well as other wetlands within the Lake Albert basin.

The AFIEGO report documents increased cases of siltation and blockage of tributaries connected to wetlands, including Wambabya, Kafu and Kibaale/Bukoora in Hoima, Kakumiro and Kyotera districts.

The report also spotlights a surge in population, along with rising air and water pollution, as troubling side effects of the oil boom.

Researchers warn these impacts could ripple through wildlife populations and disrupt the delicate ecological systems that local communities rely on.

“Anthropogenic [human-generated] noise and vibrations can cause stress in wildlife, while affecting communication, movement, and foraging,” the report states.

It adds that fossil-fuel-powered generators release carbon monoxide, carbon dioxide, nitrogen dioxide, and sulfur dioxide, which can cause respiratory distress, weakened immunity, and reproductive disruptions in wildlife.

Diana Nabiruma, Senior Communications Officer at AFIEGO, told Witness Radio that the research was conducted to understand the effects of oil infrastructure on wetlands and identify measures to address the damage.

“AFIEGO decided to conduct research to ensure that first we understand what impacts the construction of the EACOP-related pipelines had on selected wetlands in the country and what measures can be put in place to remediate these impacts and to ensure that the wetlands are conserved for the benefit of Ugandans,” Nabiruma said.

She said several pipelines associated with the oil projects are crossing or affecting wetlands of significant ecological importance.

“The wetlands are being crossed or affected by several pipelines belonging to the aforementioned projects. Some of these pipelines include the Victoria Nile Pipeline Crossing under the Tilenga project, the Kingfisher feeder pipeline and the EACOP,” she said.

Nabiruma said the pipelines are also crossing the Murchison Falls-Albert Delta Ramsar wetland system, which is partly located within Murchison Falls National Park and forms part of the Victoria Nile basin.

The Kibale/Bukoora wetland, which forms part of the Sango Bay-Musambwa Island-Kagera (SAMUKA) Ramsar wetland system, is also among the affected ecosystems. The report further identifies Kafu wetland and other wetlands within the Lake Albert basin as being affected by the oil infrastructure.

The concerns documented by AFIEGO are also being raised by communities living near the oil infrastructure.

Kyakulumbye Gonzaga, a resident of Kakuuto village in Kakuuto Sub-county, Kyotera District, said residents are worried about the safety of their water sources following construction of the EACOP pipeline through the Kibaale/Bukoora wetland.

“The EACOP camp is based in our sub-county, and most of its pipelines were constructed through the Kibaale/Bukoora river and its tributaries like Kisoma tributary. They constructed the pipeline through the water, which is a big threat to the aquatic life and to us too because we use the water for cooking and drinking.” Gonzaga revealed.

The AFIEGO research also documents concerns about reduced water access for chimpanzees in Wambabya Forest in relation to the Kingfisher pipeline.

According to the report, communities said water was pumped from River Rutooha during construction activities, after which chimpanzees began entering residential areas in search of water.

Another community member from Hoima District affected by EACOP activities said blocked tributaries had reduced water flowing into Wambabya Forest, forcing chimpanzees into nearby communities.

“Water no longer flows into Wambabya forest very well because some tributaries belonging to Kanywabarogo were blocked. The forest is home to chimpanzees. These seem not to be getting water well anymore, so they come to the community to access water,” she said.

She said the chimpanzees destroy gardens when they leave the forest in search of water. “We no longer grow maize because the chimpanzees take it when they come out of the forest looking for water,” she added.

These findings emerge as civil society groups, environmental experts, and campaigners voice mounting concerns about the social and environmental toll of Uganda’s oil drive. Activists say land acquisition for the projects has already disrupted the lives of over 100,000 people.

Dickens Kamugisha, Executive Director of AFIEGO, said Uganda cannot achieve sustainable economic transformation by degrading the ecosystems that support citizens.

He emphasized that the research reveals Uganda’s oil activities are harming vital wetlands that millions of people depend on for their livelihoods.

Kamugisha called on the government to ensure that TotalEnergies EP Uganda (TEPU) and China National Offshore Oil Corporation Uganda Limited (CUL) remediate the harm caused to wetlands, while also urging the government to rethink oil production in the country.

In one of Witness Radio’s interviews with Dr. Patricia Litho, the Assistant Commissioner for Communication in the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Development, she acknowledged that there are potential risks associated with oil exploration and production, which is why the government established robust regulations, monitoring mechanisms, and contingency plans to prevent and respond to any environmental incidents.

She added that the government of Uganda is committed to ensuring that the oil projects are executed in an environmentally sustainable and responsible manner because it also understands the importance of preserving the natural heritage and biodiversity.

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