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Food inflation: The math doesn’t add up without factoring in corporate power

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Large farmers’ protests broke out in at least 65 countries over the past year. From India to Kenya through Colombia and France, desperation has hit a breaking point. Farmers warn that without better prices and more protection, their future is at risk. Peasant movements like La Via Campesina, for over three decades now, have denounced the World Trade Organisation and the growing number of bilateral free trade agreements for destroying their livelihoods.

However, these protests unfold against the backdrop of record-high global food prices. The prices spiked first during the pandemic and then again at the start of the war in Ukraine hitting an all-time high in 2022. Food prices have been rising faster than other products: if the global general consumer price index (CPI) doubled between 2021 and 2022, the food CPI inflation almost tripled. According to the World Food Organisation (FAO) food price index, even if international prices have moderated in 2023, they are still higher than in 2019 (see Graph 1). And all indications are that this is a crisis of prices, and not a food shortage at the global level. For the past 20 years, world grain production has exceeded available stocks.

The impact of these food price increases on millions of people, especially the poor, is devastating. In 2022, 9.2% of the world’s population was chronically hungry, an increase of 122 million people since 2019.

But, as this year’s farmers’ protests make clear, the increase in food prices is not going into their pockets. So, who is benefiting from these food price rises?

Volatility by design

The FAO and corporate executives have attributed recent food price increases to disruptive supply chains for oil, gas, fertilisers and staple goods. This is a half truth, and thus deceptive. They don’t mention how the current structure of the food system encourages and amplifies such disruptions.

For decades, the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have promoted structural adjustment policies, and green revolution technologies (hybrid seeds + chemical pesticides and fertilisers) across the world. We now have a global food system designed around the production of a small number of agricultural commodities (wheat, rice, maize, soybeans, palm oil) in a few areas of the world totally devoted to the massive industrial production of monocultures dependent on the supply of inputs, and concentrated in the hands of a few companies. Any disruptions within this global system, be it war or drought, can have major impacts on people’s access to food.

This is particularly acute in countries of the global South that are now highly dependent on food imports because of policies imposed on them through multilateral banks and free trade agreements. Moreover, we are entering a period of intense climate crisis, water crisis, geopolitical tensions, and declining crop yield gains that are set to generate more frequent and more severe disruptions.

For some, however, this volatility is an opportunity. Because of deliberate policies implemented since the 1980s (see box), there is today a large and growing part of the financial sector that profits from shifts in food prices using what are called “derivatives”. In theory, the use of these instruments helps buyers and sellers to lock in prices and protect themselves against the risk of price fluctuations. The most common and important of these instruments are futures contracts, which are agreements to buy or sell agricultural commodities at a specified future date. In futures markets, it is not the agricultural product itself that is traded, but the contract. The price of the contract changes according to supply and demand. But price variations on the futures markets have a direct influence on price fluctuation of the goods to which the futures contract relate. For example, if the price of a wheat futures contract rises, this indicates that the estimated future price of wheat is high. Consequently, the real current price of wheat rises. With increased activity in the financial futures markets, food trading has come to be referenced to futures prices. In a vicious circle, the volatility of food prices attracts more speculative money into the commodity futures market. This, in turn, amplifies the volatility of the futures markets and pushes up or down real food prices.

The price volatility experienced during the 2007 – 2008 food price crisis was partly a result of a surge in financial speculation. Similarly, when the war in Ukraine began, investments in commodity futures and commodity-linked funds rocketed. Speculative positions in the Paris wheat market increased from 35 million euros in January 2021 to 1 billion euros in March 2022. A report by IPES-Food found that the price of wheat on futures markets rose 54% in nine days, and the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission noted that volatility was 20% higher than normal. While this drove price increases that penalised consumers, hedge funds and pension funds speculating on food markets made huge profits.
The world’s agricultural trading companies have also benefited massively from this situation, including through their participation in financial markets. In 2022, profits achieved by the top five firms in this sector doubled and even tripled compared to the period 2016 – 2020. A report by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development found that corporate profits of global food traders “appear to be strongly linked to periods of excessive speculation in commodity markets and to the growth of shadow banking – an unregulated financial sector that operates outside traditional banking institutions”.

They have some important advantages over purely financial players. For one, as ‘commercial actors’ they are not subject to the same restrictions or regulations of financial actors on commodity trading markets. Also, because of their global presence they have the most in-depth and up-to-date information about the availability of products and are the first to know about poor harvests or bumper crops. A study by SOMO found that the largest agricultural commodity trading companies ADM, Bunge, Cargill, COFCO International and Louis Dreyfus (usually referred to as “ABCCD”) control 73% of the global grain and oilseed trade as well as a combined 1 million hectares of farmland.

A perverse and well prepared alignment of the stars in the 1980s

Three parallel developments in the 1980s were key to financialising the global food system. First, the liberalisation of agricultural markets was promoted by the World Bank and other international agencies. Until then, governments in different regions had adopted policies to protect farmers from production risks. Second, financial markets were deregulated in the United States and investment banks and commodity trading firms began marketing index funds that tracked the prices of various commodities. In addition, large institutional investors (such as pension funds) sought to diversify their investments. To hedge their risks, they increased their investments in commodity derivatives and physical assets. As a result, a growing number of financial players began to speculate on food prices.

Third, like other companies, agribusiness companies experienced a dramatic shift in ownership with the entry of large asset management firms. CEO salaries became linked to the value of shares, creating a strong incentive to restructure companies in ways that generated more profit for shareholders. To this end, mergers and acquisitions multiplied, laying the foundations for today’s deep corporate concentration in the agri-food sector.

Source: Jennifer Clapp and S. Ryan Isakson, “Speculative Harvests: Financialization, Food, and Agriculture”, Agrarian Change & Peasant Studies, 2021.

Price manipulation and sellers’ inflation

Financial markets are not the only space where big agribusiness and food companies have an impact on food prices. A growing number of voices, such as the economist Isabella Weber, point to the monopoly power of corporations as a major factor in recent price inflation, including with food. What they call “sellers’ inflation” happens in contexts of supply-chain bottlenecks and cost shocks. When price hikes in upstream sectors (such as the gas needed for fertilisers) spread along the supply chain, companies in downstream sectors pass on cost increases to protect margins and even take the opportunity to increase margins. They can raise prices knowing that all their competitors will do the same.

Such strategies are only possible in contexts where a handful of companies have the power to set prices, as is the case in the food and agriculture sector. For example, just four companies, Bayer, Corteva, Syngenta and BASF control half of the seed market and 75% of the global agrochemicals market. Since 2018, their profits have nearly doubled. On the fertilisers side, the global market is controlled by a small number of companies. Four of them control a third of all nitrogen fertiliser production. From 2018 to 2022, the profits of the top 9 fertiliser corporations more than tripled, as they increased prices far beyond the production costs. Another example can be found in the world’s second largest meat processor, Tyson. The company more than doubled its margins and profits at the end of 2021. This was due to price increases it initiated and then continued to raise to protect margins against cost pressures from grain prices. A similar strategy was followed by large branders as Nestlé, Unilever and Mondelez who increased prices and ended by recording high profits in 2022.

This combination of monopoly power and unregulated activity in financial markets allows agricultural commodity traders, big agribusiness and food companies to make huge profits from food price rises.

Countering corporate power in food systems

The big culprit when it comes to today’s high food prices for consumers and low prices for farmers is corporate power. The climate crisis will only make this situation worse, unless urgent actions are taken to dismantle corporate power and shift to more localised food systems, based on diversified food production and catered to people’s food needs. The struggle against free trade agreements, at the forefront of many of today’s farmers’ protests, is therefore critical.

At the same time, actions are needed to reign in the power of those actors in the casino economy who are amplifying food price volatility and increases. When it comes to financial speculation, an important driver in food price volatility, regulations need to be tightened. And, to tackle the so-called “sellers’ inflation”, we need measures to prevent profiteering, which could include taxes on windfall profits anti-trust measures, and, more importantly public controls over food prices and programmes that ensure a fair, equitable and secure distribution of nutritious foods to everyone.

Source: grain.org

  • TXJCX1 Jason Kelly, a trader in the Wheat Options pit at the CME Group throws up his arms as traders toss confetti at the closing bell for the year on December 31, 2009 in Chicago. UPI/Brian Kersey

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Civil society groups scoff at AfDB’s New African Financial Architecture Initiative, saying it’s here to worsen challenges facing African food systems.

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By the Witness Radio team.

Civil society organizations warn that the African Development Bank’s (AfDB) newly launched New African Financial Architecture for Development (NAFAD) may reinforce existing challenges in African food systems and investment priorities.

The concerns follow the AfDB Annual Meetings in Brazzaville, Republic of Congo, from 25–29 May 2026, during which the Bank and its partners endorsed NAFAD as a framework for mobilizing large-scale development financing across Africa.

The meetings produced three outcomes: AfDB Board of Governors’ endorsement of NAFAD and its Four Cardinal Points; the launch of the African Economic Outlook 2026, estimating a $400 billion annual financing gap; and the Brazzaville Appeal, inviting civil society, diaspora, and philanthropists to support the initiative’s vision and objectives.

Meanwhile, civil society organizations such as the Alliance for Food Sovereignty in Africa (AFSA) and Stop Financing Factory Farming (S3F) have issued a joint statement expressing reservations about the initiative’s direction, particularly its implications for African food systems. The groups argue that Africa’s problem is not capital shortage but governance and investment decisions.

“Africa does not have a capital shortage. It lacks democratic control over capital allocation. NAFAD addresses capital, but not governance,” the statement says.

The statement notes that Africa holds about $4 trillion in domestic savings—much of it invested outside the continent—including pension, sovereign wealth, and insurance funds. It also highlights the decline in global aid levels. These factors underscore the need to mobilize African capital for development.

However, the organizations caution that, without safeguards, the initiative may replicate existing industrial, input-intensive investment models in agriculture.

They state NAFAD lacks a clear definition of “productive investment” and specific commitments to agroecology, smallholder systems, or land rights.

It further argues that without a binding investment framework, the initiative may simply follow AfDB’s agricultural priorities.

NAFAD does not propose a new architecture. It aims to capitalize on the existing one by leveraging African savings, possibly shifting power centers while retaining the extractivist structure.

The statement also references a 2025 AFSA assessment of 20 AfDB agricultural projects using an agroecology evaluation tool, which reportedly found low alignment with agroecological principles across all projects reviewed, including flagship programs such as the Technologies for African Agricultural Transformation (TAAT) and Special Agro-Industrial Processing Zones (SAPZ).

Civil society groups also voice concern about rising private-sector agribusiness investments in African agriculture by firms such as ETG, Zambeef, and DAL Group.

Another concern is what organizations call “natural capital financialization,” including carbon markets and biodiversity financing. They argue that such methods could risk land dispossession unless strong community protections are in place.

“All NAFAD-funded carbon, biodiversity, and ecosystem service programs must require binding FPIC, protect land rights, and have independent oversight with community-defined benefit sharing.”

Furthermore, the statement questions NAFAD’s governance, arguing that key stakeholder groups, such as farmer organizations and land rights movements, were not adequately represented in its design.

African pension funds, sovereign wealth, and diaspora capital could finance a large-scale agroecological transition—supporting farmer-managed seeds, territorial markets, community land tenure, and biodiverse food systems. This is the financial architecture Africa’s producers need. It requires political will to define African financial sovereignty by including the people whose labor secures Africa’s food supply, the organizations add.

The groups note that, while the Brazzaville Appeal invites civil society to “embrace the vision” of NAFAD, this should also mean greater participation in shaping its design, not just its implementation.

Despite concerns, AFSA and S3F remain open to engaging with AfDB and partners. They will independently monitor NAFAD’s impact on communities, land, and biodiversity.

They also called for reforms: a binding investment mandate with agroecological requirements, independent audits of AfDB agricultural programs, stronger protections for community land rights, and greater transparency across all NAFAD investments.

AfDB has not yet publicly responded to the specific concerns in the statement.

 

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Africa’s responsible business agenda is facing challenges as more land is taken from local communities for investment, and landowners struggle to secure justice.

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By the Witness Radio team.

In Kyankwanzi District, central region of Uganda, tens of thousands of people displaced to make way for the Kikonda Forest Plantation say they are still waiting for justice more than two decades after losing their land to Global Woods Limited in 2002 to plant trees for carbon offsetting.

Recently, Witness Radio journalists visited the project-affected families. The families described the ordeal as a deep frustration and lasting pain. They said their forceful removal from their land by government authorities paved the way for the tree-planting project. This removal was never subjected to any consultation. Former landowners never consented. To date, they have no idea how the project will improve their livelihoods.

Some families living on the plantation’s edge report ongoing tensions, intimidation, and occasional violence involving workers, along with severe weather changes that have harmed food security in the area.

The project claimed to combat climate change while contributing to local development. However, it caused a drought due to monoculture trees planted by the project implementers. For many who lost their homes and livelihoods, this tells a different story. To them, Kikonda is a painful reminder of dispossession, broken promises, and a justice process that has remained out of reach for more than twenty years.

“We were removed forcefully. We have never been compensated. We have never been heard,” said Mrs. Nalubega Zulaikah, one of the leaders of the affected families, recalling years of uncertainty and marginalization and having no hope for remedies.

Their story is not the only one. In Africa, efforts to attract investment often hurt local people’s rights. Big projects in forestry, mining, farming, and construction still help the economy, but they also raise complaints about land grabbing, forced relocation, environmental harm, poor working conditions, and limited access to justice.

At the same time, governments across the continent are embracing Business and Human Rights (BHR) frameworks designed to ensure that economic development does not come at the expense of people and the environment.

National Action Plans (NAPs), multi-stakeholder consultations, human rights due diligence, and regulatory reforms are emerging across East and the Horn of Africa. These initiatives aim to ensure businesses respect human rights and provide remedies when harm occurs. Despite this progress, sectors driving economic growth remain linked to serious human rights concerns.

These contradictions dominated discussions at a regional forum on Business and Human Rights in East and the Horn of Africa, where government officials, national human rights institutions, civil society organizations, and development partners reflected on both achievements and persistent challenges.

The two-day dialogue was concluded on Thursday, the 11th. Convened by DCA and partners, the event’s theme was “Beyond Compliance: Strengthening Accountable and Rights-Centered Supply Chains in East and Horn of Africa.” The forum brought together governments (policy and regulation), businesses (implementation), civil society (advocacy and monitoring), development partners (support and funding), and human rights defenders (case reporting and advocacy).

“We still see that people continue to suffer from business-related harms, often on a large scale, with irreversible damage done to communities and the environment,” Professor Damilola Olawuyi, a member of the United Nations Working Group on Business and Human Rights, told participants, adding that, “We still also see that speaking up against business-related risks and impacts remains a very risky undertaking in many parts of Africa, particularly for human rights and environmental defenders who raise concerns about agribusiness and other investments.”

Several countries in the region have taken significant steps toward institutionalizing the principles of Business and Human Rights.

Uganda adopted its National Action Plan on Business and Human Rights in 2021 and is already undergoing a review process. Kenya was the first African country to develop such a plan and continues to review and strengthen implementation. Tanzania has completed drafting its own NAP and awaits government approval. Ethiopia is finalizing its first plan, and Djibouti has entered the implementation phase.

Officials attending the two-day forum pointed to a growing range of initiatives aimed at improving corporate accountability. These include public awareness campaigns, training government agencies and businesses on human rights obligations, developing digital complaint-reporting systems, and introducing tools to assess the human rights impacts of investment projects.

“We have created public awareness on human rights and businesses because most times we thought businesses were only for profit and had nothing to do with human rights,” said Harriet Asibazuyo, Uganda’s National Coordinator for Business and Human Rights at the Ministry of Gender, Labor, and Social Development.

But participants at the forum said these new policies are not really improving life for many local and indigenous groups who are harmed by investment projects.

Delegates from Uganda, Kenya, Tanzania, Ethiopia, and Djibouti listed mining, resource extraction, farming, and large building projects as industries most often linked to human rights abuses.

In Tanzania, officials highlighted extractive industries, agriculture, and infrastructure development as major drivers of displacement and other related impacts, noting that tensions continue to emerge around these sectors, particularly as growing populations place increasing pressure on land and natural resources.

“This is where we see more violations related to land dispossession, environmental degradation, and pollution. Communities are often not adequately engaged in the development of these projects. This lack of engagement results in increased human rights violations,” Jovina Muchunguzi of Tanzania’s Commission for Human Rights and Good Governance explained.

Uganda officials also reported similar concerns. According to Asibazuyo, mining communities continue to grapple with child labor, gender-based violence, environmental pollution, economic exploitation, and land-related conflicts.

“The local communities put in a lot, but the return they get is so little,” she said.

While these National Action Plans focus on Protect, Respect, and Remedy, securing justice remains very difficult in the region.

In Ethiopia, participants pointed to under-resourced institutions and weak enforcement mechanisms. There is also widespread fear among workers who seek accountability for abuses.

“More than 80 percent of workers in fields like farming, factories, and mining are women. Sexual harassment is very common. Workers are not allowed to form groups, and some lose their jobs illegally. Many are afraid that if they go to court, they will be fired,” said Hawi Asfaw, Director of the Socio-Economic Rights Department at the Ethiopian Human Rights Commission.

Kenya reported an increase in litigation related to land rights, environmental harm, and business-related human rights abuses, with courts increasingly serving as arenas where affected communities seek accountability.

In Uganda, communities affected by land-based investment projects often struggle to challenge companies through legal channels. They cite financial barriers, lengthy court processes, and power imbalances.

Experts at the forum called for stronger complaint procedures and easy ways to report problems. They also urged the creation of better-funded groups to investigate complaints and ensure protections are enforced.

Participants at the meeting also said it is important to stop human rights abuses before they happen, not just react to them afterward.

Human rights due diligence is a process through which businesses identify, prevent, mitigate, and address adverse human rights impacts. This emerged as a central theme throughout the discussions.

“We must identify risks before they materialize,” said Oumalkaire Atteye Wais, highlighting the importance of early intervention and prevention.

More than two decades after eviction, families affected by the Kikonda plantation are still waiting for compensation, accountability, and recognition of harm.

For many participants at the forum, this gap between policy and reality remains the defining challenge of the Business and Human Rights agenda in the region.

As governments continue to develop National Action Plans. Businesses are encouraged to conduct human rights due diligence while institutions are pledging stronger oversight. But for communities facing displacement, progress is not measured by policies or conference statements.

They measure progress by whether justice comes to pass or whether the promise of responsible business remains out of reach for those who most need it.

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Land surveyors escape mob action in Mubende over alleged illegal demarcation.

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By Witness Radio Team.

Mubende: Residents of Kisagazi Village, Kiteera Parish, Butoloogo Sub-county, Mubende District, drove away land surveyors accused of trying to illegally demarcate land boundaries without consultation or authorization.

The situation briefly turned chaotic as over 50 residents mobilized to stop the exercise, which they say lacked their consent and clear instructions. Tensions escalated when residents noticed unknown people with surveying equipment moving through the land.

Residents allege the surveyors, led by a man named Lutalo, entered the area with “questionable land documents.” These documents were reportedly from the Mubende District land office, but had not been shared with local occupants.

Emmanuel Katende, 52, of Kisagazi Village, said he has lived on the land since the 1980s and that it has sustained his family for decades.

“I have been on this land since the 1980s. I bought these five acres and have depended on them ever since,” Katende said.

He said people were surprised when the surveyors suddenly showed up and only took action after they noticed the land boundaries being marked.

“When boundary opening began unexpectedly, we stopped them because we weren’t informed,” he added.

The land in question is about 948.8 hectares. It is located on Block 48, Plot 2, and is reportedly managed by Kakulo Alpathic Kisamula Estate. It covers Kisagazi and Kawoloro villages.

Fred Mwesigwa, another resident, said villagers acted when they realized the surveyors were unknown to them.

“I saw three men moving with a measuring tape and a theodolite. When I asked what they were measuring, they said they were acting on instructions from their bosses but refused to name them,” Mwesigwa said.

He added that residents alerted local leaders as soon as concerns about transparency grew. Another resident, Kenneth Byakatonda, said a lack of clear communication heightened tensions.

“After the surveyors gave unclear answers, I called our local leaders,” he said.

Witness Radio found the surveyors were from Surve Tech Solution Ltd and were reportedly working under instructions from an individual identified as Lutalo.

A letter reportedly signed by District Staff Surveyor Mr. Birungi Albert on April 17, 2026, authorized Surve Tech Solution Ltd to demarcate boundaries in Kisagazi Village, Kiteera Parish, Butoloogo Sub-county. Despite this, residents say they were not informed beforehand.

Residents further reported that after being ordered to leave by local leaders, who serve as the community’s primary mediators in land affairs, the survey team returned later that day with Lutalo. This second attempt triggered renewed tension. Residents again angrily mobilized and chased them away.

“Despite the leaders’ earlier decision, these people seemed ready to continue. The leaders arrived and ordered them to leave, but they returned later, angering residents,” Mwesigwa added.

Police intervened and escorted the surveyors away after the standoff escalated.

Sandra Nalwanga, Chairperson of the Butoloogo Sub-county Local Council III, said she was unaware of the surveying exercise until residents phoned her. As chairperson, she oversees local governance, community issues, and land matters. She urged authorities to consult communities before starting any land-related activities.

“Early communication can help prevent misunderstandings that may lead to violence or mob action,” she said. She warned that incidents like this could endanger lives if not managed well.

When Witness Radio spoke to Lutalo Richard, the accused survey leader, he said he was acting on behalf of his friend, whom he refused to mention.

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