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Restoring Our Land: Tackling Degradation for Climate Resilience, Food Security, and Sustainable Development at COP16

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United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification

Land degradation is not just an environmental problem. It increases risks to human health and the spread of new diseases. It is a driver of forced migration and conflicts over scarce resources. It is a leading contributor to climate change, biodiversity loss, poverty, and food insecurity. In other words, it is at the core of sustainable development.

Up to 40% of the world’s land is degraded. Between 2015 and 2019, at least 100 million hectares of healthy and productive land were degraded every year—a cumulative area twice the size of Greenland. Droughts are hitting more often and harder all over the world, driven or amplified by both climate change and poor land management.

Tree planting
People from Ukamo village in Ethiopia take part in a tree planting project as part of the government’s “Safety Net” programme which gives vulnerable farmers work. (Photo by Mike Goldwater)

Restoring degraded land and soil, and investing in drought resilience, are some of the most cost-effective actions countries can take to reduce the high human, social and economic impacts of drought—simultaneously increasing food, water and energy security while reducing displacement and conflict drivers. Thirty years ago, with the adoption of the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD), countries agreed to walk together down this path.

What Drives Land Degradation and Desertification?

Land degradation is the long-term decline in the quality of land that leads to the reduction or loss of the biological or economic productivity of land. In the drylands, land degradation is known as desertification. According to the Global Land Outlook, drylands cover more than 45% of the Earth’s land surface, provide 44% of the world’s agriculture, support 50% of the world’s livestock, and are home to one in three people worldwide. Experts estimate that, if not reversed, land degradation will drive 700 million people out of their homes by 2050 because they will no longer be able to feed themselves or have access to sufficient water.

The dominant drivers of land degradation include agriculture and related land-use changes, unsustainable management or over-exploitation of resources, natural vegetation clearance, nutrient depletion, overgrazing, inappropriate irrigation, excessive use of agrochemicals, urban sprawl, pollution, mining and quarrying, among others.

Deforestation is one of the most significant causes of land degradation. Tree roots help bind soil particles, thus maintaining their quality. When trees are cut down, the soil particles tend to disperse, negatively impacting the quality of the soil.

Another driver of land degradation is a lack of land tenure security. When people own their land, they are more likely to make the long-term investments needed to sustainably manage land, such as practicing crop diversity and agroforestry. Even though land constitutes the main asset from which the rural poor derive their livelihoods, millions of farmers, especially women, do not own their land. In many countries, the laws or customs hinder women’s ownership of land. In more than 100 countries, women are dispossessed from their land when they lose their husbands. This is a key issue to global land restoration since women are more likely to invest in diverse food systems, which boost soil health, while men focus primarily on cash crops and monoculture.

What is the UN Convention to Combat Desertification?

In 1991, African environment ministers decided to prioritize their proposal for the negotiation of a new convention to combat desertification as one of the concrete recommendations to be adopted at the UN Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED or Earth Summit) to be held in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil in June 1992. They hoped a convention would help them gain access to additional funding to combat desertification, land degradation, and drought.

Leading into the final days In Rio, delegates had reached agreement on much of the desertification chapter of Agenda 21, the UNCED outcome, including the definition of desertification: “Land degradation in arid, semi-arid and dry sub-humid areas resulting from various factors, including climate variations and human activities.” However, there was still opposition to a convention. Many developing countries resisted the idea of a special convention for Africa, since they also faced land degradation. Industrialized countries maintained that desertification was a local problem and did not warrant a treaty. It wasn’t until the final hours of the Earth Summit that a deal was finally struck and the call for a convention was included in Chapter 12 of Agenda 21.

Negotiations on the Convention began in May 1993 and were completed in five meetings over fifteen months. At the first session in Nairobi, Kenya, the International Negotiating Committee held a one-week seminar to inform negotiators of the substantive issues related to desertification and drought, demonstrating that land degradation affected people around the world. This led to a serious discussion on how to create a global convention that still gave priority to Africa. When Committee Chair Bo Kjellén suggested including a special annex for Africa under the Convention, other regions insisted on annexes for their regions.

At the second meeting in Geneva, Switzerland, in September 1993, governments agreed to negotiate four annexes simultaneously, while giving special attention to Africa. In the end, the Convention includes regional implementation annexes for Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean, Asia, and the Northern Mediterranean. A fifth annex, for Central and Eastern Europe, was adopted in 2000.

Differences over financial resources nearly caused the negotiations to collapse. Developing countries called for a special fund as the centerpiece of the new convention. Industrialized countries rejected binding obligations to increase financial assistance to affected countries, insisting that existing resources could be used more effectively. The deadlock was broken only after the United States proposed establishing a “Global Mechanism” to improve monitoring and assessment of existing aid flows and increase donor coordination. Many developing countries were not happy, but believed they had to accept the Global Mechanism on the final night because if there was no agreement on finance, there would be no convention. On 17 June 1994, delegates adopted the UNCCD, four regional implementation annexes, and a resolution calling for urgent action for Africa.

The Convention recognizes the physical, biological, and socio-economic aspects of desertification and the importance of redirecting technology transfer so that it is demand-driven. The core of the convention is the development of national, subregional and regional action programmes by national governments in cooperation with donors, local populations, and non-governmental organizations (NGOs). In fact, the Convention was the first to call for the effective participation of local populations and organizations in the preparation of national action programmes. This innovation led the first “sustainable development” convention to also be referred to as a “bottom-up” convention.

The UNCCD was opened for signature in October 1994 and entered into force on 26 December 1996. Today, there are 197 parties, representing universal ratification.

United for Land cover
Released in 2024, Unite for Land provides an overview of the first 30 years of the UNCCD.

Promoting Land Degradation Neutrality

In 2008, a group of scientists was asked by the UNCCD Executive Secretary to examine if the Convention could use the offsetting principle already practiced by the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) and the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), and applied to deforestation at one site by planting trees elsewhere. The idea was to use this offsetting principle to lead to zero-net land degradation and expand the reach of the Convention to address land degradation globally, not just in the drylands.

The Secretariat and like-minded countries then advocated for endorsement of this concept of land degradation neutrality (LDN) by the UN Conference on Sustainable Development (Rio+20) in June 2012 and its inclusion as one of the targets under the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). This would enable LDN to gain traction and effectively link land degradation as a driver of poverty, climate change and biodiversity loss, and demonstrate the relevance of productive land to global sustainability. The Rio+20 outcome, The Future We Want, highlights the need for urgent action to reverse land degradation and achieve a land-degradation neutral world.

After Rio+20, the UNCCD pushed forward with LDN on a variety of fronts. First, in 2013, the 11th meeting of the Conference of the Parties (COP) established a working group to develop a science-based definition of LDN (Decision 8/COP.11). In late 2014, the Secretariat set up the LDN pilot project, through which 14 affected countries worked to translate LDN into national targets.

Meanwhile, in New York, the UNCCD and its supporters successfully lobbied for including a target on LDN in the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). When the 17 SDGs and 169 targets were adopted by the UN General Assembly in September 2015, they included target 15.3: “By 2030, combat desertification, restore degraded land and soil, including land affected by desertification, drought and floods, and strive to achieve a land degradation-neutral world.” For the first time, the UNCCD had successfully placed an item at the forefront of the international agenda.

Tree planting
Afrormosia growing scheme at the Compagnie Forestiere et de Transformation (CFT) in Kisangani, DRC. (Photo by Axel Fassio/CIFOR (CC BY-NC-ND 2.0))

The following month, UNCCD COP12 convened in Ankara, Turkey, and endorsed the science-based definition of LDN submitted by the working group:

“Land degradation neutrality is a state whereby the amount and quality of land resources necessary to support ecosystem functions and services and enhance food security remain stable or increase within specified temporary and spatial scales and ecosystems” (decision 3/COP.12).

And, in what some viewed as a ‘game changing’ accomplishment, COP12 agreed that striving to achieve SDG target 15.3 is a “strong vehicle for driving implementation of the UNCCD,” and invited countries to set voluntary targets to achieve LDN. The Global Mechanism and the UNCCD Secretariat established the LDN Target Setting Programme to assist countries in setting national baselines and creating voluntary national LDN targets and associated measures. Since then, 131 countries committed to setting LDN targets and more than 100 have already set their targets.

In 2017, the Convention’s Science-Policy Interface (SPI) published the Scientific Conceptual Framework for Land Degradation Neutrality, which provides a scientific foundation for understanding, implementing and monitoring LDN. It was designed as a bridge between the vision and the practical implementation of LDN by defining LDN in operational terms. The SPI developed three indicators, which created a clear pathway for monitoring LDN—both for the Convention and SDG 15.3:

  • trends in land cover;
  • trends in land productivity or functioning of the land; and
  • trends in carbon stocks above and below ground.

But there were concerns. Some countries and members of civil society at COP12 were worried about the focus on LDN as a central UNCCD target. Some likened it to opening a door to land grabs and greenwashing. So while the UNCCD COP called for the restoration of 1.5 billion hectares of land by 2030 to achieve a land-degradation neutral world, it was also essential to acknowledge land rights and inclusive land governance arrangements at the national and sub-national levels. The land tenure decision at COP14 did just that.

Already countries have pledged to restore 1 billion hectares of land, but there is still more work to be done to make these pledges a reality.

2018-2030 Strategic Framework

In 2017, COP13 in Ordos, China, adopted the UNCCD 2018−2030 Strategic Framework, which has three main components: a vision, strategic objectives and an implementation framework.

The vision commits parties to “A future that avoids, minimizes, and reverses desertification/land degradation and mitigates the effects of drought in affected areas at all levels and strive to achieve a land degradation neutral world consistent with the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, within the scope of the Convention.”

The Framework’s five strategic objectives are designed to guide the actions of all UNCCD stakeholders and parties until 2030:

  1. To improve the condition of affected ecosystems, combat desertification/land degradation, promote sustainable land management and contribute to land degradation neutrality
  2. To improve the living conditions of affected populations
  3. To mitigate, adapt to, and manage the effects of drought in order to enhance resilience of vulnerable populations and ecosystems
  4. To generate global environmental benefits through effective implementation of the UNCCD
  5. To mobilize substantial and additional financial and nonfinancial resources to support the implementation of the Convention by building effective partnerships at global and national level

The implementation framework defines the roles and responsibilities of parties, UNCCD institutions, partners and stakeholders in meeting the strategic objectives.

In Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire, in 2022, COP15 launched a midterm evaluation of the Strategic Plan. The results of this evaluation, overseen by an intergovernmental working group, will be discussed at COP16, which is expected to adopt a decision on enhancing the implementation of the Strategic Framework for its final five years and restoring the necessary hectares of land to achieve a land degradation neutral world.

What’s Next?

UNCCD COP16 convenes in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, from 2-13 December 2024, under the theme “Our Land. Our Future.” The COP will commemorate the 30th anniversary of the UNCCD and a special segment will bring together leaders and high-level officials to commit to accelerate action to combat land degradation and desertification and improve drought resilience.

COP 16 social media card
A social media image for UNCCD COP 16 underlines how land degradation is a youth issue.

In addition to the midterm evaluation of the Strategic Plan and adopting the UNCCD’s biennial budget, COP16 is expected to negotiate and adopt decisions aimed at:

  • accelerating restoration of degraded land between now and 2030;
  • boosting drought preparedness, response and resilience;
  • ensuring land continues to provide climate and biodiversity solutions;
  • boosting resilience to sand and dust storms;
  • scaling up nature-positive food production by protecting and restoring grasslands and rangelands;
  • enhancing ongoing efforts to address desertification/land degradation and drought as one of the drivers that causes migration;
  • strengthening women’s right to land tenure to advance land restoration; and
  • promoting youth engagement, including decent land-based jobs for youth.

COP16 is also expected to catalyze new initiatives on land restoration and drought resilience that build on the G20 Global Land Initiative.

For the first time, the COP will include an Action Agenda, which will highlight voluntary commitments and actions and include thematic days:

  • Land Day on 4 December will focus on the importance of healthy land for combating climate change, creating jobs and alleviating poverty, with an emphasis on nature-based solutions, land restoration, and private sector engagement.
  • Agri-food System Day on 5 December will highlight sustainable farming practices for resilient crops and healthy soils while protecting ecosystems.
  • Governance Day on 6 December will address inclusive land governance.
  • People’s Day on 7 December will focus on the role of youth, women and civil society in decision-making.
  • Science, Technology and Innovation Day on 9 December aims to accelerate scientific solutions for land health and resilience.
  • Resilience Day on 10 December will focus on policies and technologies to build societal and planetary resilience in the face of climate change.
  • Finance Day on 11 December will engage financial stakeholders to showcase innovative funding mechanisms and partnerships for land and drought resilience initiatives.

COP16 will also build upon the COPs of the CBD in October 2024 and the UNFCCC in November 2024, improving synergies between the three “Rio Conventions” and promoting the implementation of the SDGs.

As UNCCD Executive Secretary Ibrahim Thiaw said in his foreword to the second edition of the Global Land Outlook report, “Governments and stakeholders cannot stop the climate crisis today, biodiversity loss tomorrow, and land degradation the day after.” The international community needs to tackle all these issues together. Achieving climate, biodiversity and sustainable development goals is impossible without healthy land.

In 1994 the adoption of the UNCCD started the world down the path to reversing land degradation, desertification and drought. COP16 is expected to reaffirm this global commitment for present and future generations.

Pamela Chasek, Ph.D., is the Co-founder and Executive Editor of the Earth Negotiations Bulletin.

Original Source: Earth Negotiations Bulletin (ENB)

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COP16 in Riyadh: World Leaders Commit $12.15B to Combat Land Degradation and Drought

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December 17, 2024

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The 16th Conference of the Parties (COP16) to the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) has concluded in Riyadh, marking the largest and most inclusive conference in the organization’s history.

With over 20,000 participants, including global leaders, scientists, private sector representatives, and civil society groups, the conference laid out bold strategies to address land degradation, drought, and desertification.

The highlight of the conference was the announcement of the Riyadh Global Drought Resilience Partnership, which secured $12.15 billion in pledges to support drought-affected regions in 80 vulnerable countries, including Uganda.

This funding aims to strengthen food security, promote sustainable land management, and protect ecosystems from the growing impacts of climate change.

For Uganda, where over 40% of the population relies on agriculture, this commitment offers hope for combating the devastating effects of prolonged droughts in the cattle corridor and other semi-arid regions.

In a move to enhance global preparedness for droughts, COP16 launched an AI-powered Drought Observatory, a groundbreaking tool designed to provide real-time data and predictive analysis.

Uganda, with its ongoing challenges in monitoring and responding to climate impacts, stands to benefit immensely from this technology, which will enable the government to anticipate and respond effectively to severe drought conditions.

This could mitigate the recurring food insecurity and water scarcity issues faced by communities in Karamoja and other drought-prone areas.

H.E. Abdulrahman Abdulmohsen AlFadley, COP16 President, in his closing remarks, stated:

“This session marks a turning point in raising awareness and strengthening efforts to restore land and build resilience. The Riyadh Declaration sends a clear message: the time for decisive action is now.”

For Uganda, this turning point is critical as the country battles desertification in key ecosystems like the cattle corridor and Lake Kyoga basin, which threaten biodiversity, agriculture, and livelihoods.

With only 6% of land restoration funding currently coming from private sources, COP16 introduced the Business for Land initiative to increase private sector engagement in land restoration.

Over 400 companies participated in discussions on sustainable finance, environmental, social, and governance (ESG) practices, and strategies to mobilize private investment for land restoration projects.

Uganda, which has already seen successful private-sector participation in conservation projects such as carbon trading and reforestation in areas like Mabira Forest, could tap into this global momentum to attract more investments for land restoration initiatives.

To promote inclusivity, COP16 placed women and youth at the forefront of the fight against land degradation. Key outcomes included:

The launch of youth-led initiatives to drive grassroots climate action.

Adoption of gender-responsive policies to ensure equitable participation in land restoration efforts.

For Uganda, these measures are especially relevant.

The country has a youthful population and strong women-led grassroots organizations that are already leading efforts to promote climate resilience through tree planting and sustainable farming practices.

The resolutions adopted at COP16 provide a framework for scaling up these local efforts while ensuring inclusivity and equitable representation.

Scientific data presented at COP16 painted a dire picture of the planet’s land resources:

77.6% of Earth’s land is drier today than it was 30 years ago.

40.6% of the planet is now classified as drylands, threatening ecosystems, food security, and livelihoods.

For Uganda, this data underscores the urgent need for action.

With parts of the country already facing desertification and reduced rainfall patterns, the findings highlight the importance of restoring degraded lands like Nakasongola and tackling deforestation in critical areas such as Mount Elgon.

As COP16 wraps up, attention now shifts to COP17, which will take place in Mongolia.

Delegates will continue discussions on establishing a global drought regime, building on the momentum and progress achieved in Riyadh.

For Uganda, the outcomes of COP16 represent a pivotal moment.

The historic commitments, technological innovations, and inclusive policies offer the country an opportunity to address its growing environmental challenges.

If implemented effectively, these resolutions could help Uganda restore its degraded lands, safeguard livelihoods, and build resilience against future climate shocks, positioning the country as a leader in sustainable land management in Africa.

Source: nilepost.co.ug

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Church of Uganda’s call to end land grabbing is timely and re-enforces earlier calls to investigate quack investors and their agents fueling the problem.

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December 13, 2024

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By Witness Radio team.

The Church of Uganda has called for the government to intervene immediately to address the escalating issue of land grabbing in Uganda.

The Archbishop of the Church of Uganda, Rt, made the urgent appeal. Rev. Steven Kazimba Mugalu, during an event in Wamala Village, Nansana Municipality, Wakiso District, on Saturday, December 7. He urged the government to take responsibility for protecting its citizens’ rights, particularly the right to own and occupy land, by strengthening laws and regulations governing land ownership and use.

The Archbishop noted that local communities are being forcibly removed from their land without receiving compensation or alternative sources of income. In many cases, Ugandan communities face eviction or compulsory land acquisition under the guise of developmental projects, leaving many marginalized.

Bwowe Ismael’s case is an example. He is a father of 20 and a person with a disability (PWD) living in Bethlehem in the Kyotera district. In an interview with Witness Radio, he revealed that his land was forcefully taken when he demanded fair compensation for it, which is affected by the East African crude oil pipeline project (EACOP). He shared that the State authorities intimidated, arrested, and charged him with false offenses, such as aggravated robbery, accusing him of sabotaging the government project.

“This is a loss for the entire nation, not just the impacted individuals and families,” the Archbishop said. He added,” We implore the government to set up an open and transparent procedure for acquiring land and to guarantee that all people and communities impacted by land grabbing receive just compensation.”

The Church of Uganda’s call for government intervention on land grabbing comes less than a month after Witness Radio released a shocking report on land evictions in Uganda. The report revealed that nearly four land evictions are reported weekly, affecting approximately 15,126 people and threatening 5,060.12 hectares of land nationwide. It further estimated that 2,160 Ugandans face evictions daily to make way for investments, with 723 hectares of land at risk of being seized daily.

The Witness Radio report “Forced Land Evictions in Uganda” covered 90 land eviction cases over six months from January to June 2024, affecting at least 363,021 Ugandans and putting over 121,000 hectares of land at risk of land grabs.

Evictions have not only disrupted people’s lives but have also contributed to increased food insecurity in Uganda, violence, and, in many cases, death and the criminalization of those who resist or face eviction. According to the report, corporate entities such as Agilis Partners Ltd, Great Seasons Ltd, East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP), New Forest Company (NFC), and Formosa Ltd, along with the impunity of government officials, wealthy individuals, multinational corporations, and influential figures, including Army Generals, are the leading perpetrators.

The report further highlighted that local and foreign investors were involved in 67 cases, government agencies in 12, and tribal and family land conflicts in 11 cases.

Poor people are often the primary targets and most affected by land grabbing as those behind these evictions hold significant power. During the same period, Witness Radio documented 65 attacks on land and environmental defenders (LEDs) and climate activists who were challenging illegal land evictions and corporate environmental harm in Uganda.  Most (37) evictions were enforced by armed gangs on behalf of evictors, with 25 cases by Uganda police. In contrast, 5 cases involved the participation of some soldiers of the Uganda Army, whereas 4 cases involved private security companies.

Kazimba’s call for government intervention echoes Witness Radio’s report, which also emphasized the urgent need for government action to address the land-grabbing crisis, respect human rights, uphold the rule of law, ensure compliance with directives on land evictions issued by relevant authorities, and closely monitor their implementation.

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Three-quarters of Earth’s land became permanently drier in last three decades: UN

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December 9, 2024

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  • Aridity: The ‘existential crisis’ redefining life on Earth

  • Five billion people could be affected by 2100

Riyadh, Saudi Arabia – Even as dramatic water-related disasters such as floods and storms intensified in some parts of the world, more than three-quarters of Earth’s land became permanently drier in recent decades, UN scientists warned today in a stark new analysis.

Some 77.6% of Earth’s land experienced drier conditions during the three decades leading up to 2020 compared to the previous 30-year period, according to the landmark report from the UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD).

Over the same period, drylands expanded by about 4.3 million km2 – an area nearly a third larger than India, the world’s 7th largest country – and now cover 40.6% of all land on Earth (excluding Antarctica).

In recent decades some 7.6% of global lands – an area larger than Canada – were pushed across aridity thresholds (i.e. from non-drylands to drylands, or from less arid dryland classes to more arid classes).

Most of these areas have transitioned from humid landscapes to drylands, with dire implications for agriculture, ecosystems, and the people living there.

And the research warns that, if the world fails to curb greenhouse gas emissions, another 3% of the world’s humid areas will become drylands by the end of this century.

In high greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, expanding drylands are forecast across the Midwestern United States, central Mexico, northern Venezuela, north-eastern Brazil, south-eastern Argentina, the entire Mediterranean Region, the Black Sea coast, large parts of southern Africa, and southern Australia.

The report, The Global Threat of Drying Lands: Regional and global aridity trends and future projections, was launched at the 16th conference of UNCCD’s nearly 200 Parties in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia (COP16), the largest UN land conference to date, and the first UNCCD COP to be held in the Middle East, a region profoundly affected by impacts from aridity.

“This analysis finally dispels an uncertainty that has long surrounded global drying trends,” says Ibrahim Thiaw, UNCCD Executive Secretary. “For the first time, the aridity crisis has been documented with scientific clarity, revealing an existential threat affecting billions around the globe.”

“Unlike droughts—temporary periods of low rainfall—aridity represents a permanent, unrelenting transformation,” he adds. “Droughts end. When an area’s climate becomes drier, however, the ability to return to previous conditions is lost.  The drier climates now affecting vast lands across the globe will not return to how they were and this change is redefining life on Earth.”

The report by UNCCD Science-Policy Interface (SPI) — the UN body for assessing the science of land degradation and drought — points to human-caused climate change as the primary driver of this shift. Greenhouse gas emissions from electricity generation, transport, industry and land use changes warm the planet and other human activities warm the planet and affect rainfall, evaporation and plant life, creating the conditions that increase aridity.

Global aridity index (AI) data track these conditions and reveal widespread change over the decades.

Aridification hotspots

Areas particularly hard-hit by the drying trend include almost all of Europe (95.9% of its land), parts of the western United States, Brazil, parts of Asia (notably eastern Asia), and central Africa.

  • Parts of the Western United States and Brazil: Significant drying trends, with water scarcity and wildfires becoming perennial hazards.

  • Mediterranean and Southern Europe: Once considered agricultural breadbaskets, these areas face a stark future as semi-arid conditions expand.

  • Central Africa and parts of Asia: Biologically megadiverse areas are experiencing ecosystem degradation and desertification, endangering countless species.

By contrast, less than a quarter of the planet’s land (22.4%) experienced wetter conditions, with areas in the central United States, Angola’s Atlantic coast, and parts of Southeast Asia showing some gains in moisture.

The overarching trend, however, is clear: drylands are expanding, pushing ecosystems and societies to suffer from aridity’s life-threatening impacts.

The report names South Sudan and Tanzania as nations with the largest percentage of land transitioning to drylands, and China as the country experiencing the largest total area shifting from non-drylands into drylands.

For the 2.3 billion people – well over 25% of the world’s population – living in the expanding drylands, this new normal requires lasting, adaptive solutions. Aridity-related land degradation, known as desertification, represents a dire threat to human well-being and ecological stability.

And as the planet continues to warm, report projections in the worst-case scenario suggest up to 5 billion people could live in drylands by the century’s end, grappling with depleted soils, dwindling water resources, and the diminishment or collapse of once-thriving ecosystems.

Forced migration is one of aridity’s most visible consequences. As land becomes uninhabitable, families and entire communities facing water scarcity and agricultural collapse often have no choice but to abandon their homes, leading to social and political challenges worldwide. From the Middle East to Africa and South Asia, millions are already on the move—a trend set to intensify in coming decades.

Aridity’s devastating impact

The effects of rising aridity are cascading and multifaceted, touching nearly every aspect of life and society, the report says.

It warns that one fifth of all land could experience abrupt ecosystem transformations from rising aridity by the end of the century, causing dramatic shifts (such as forests becoming grasslands and other changes) and leading to extinctions among many of the world’s plants, animals and other life.

  • Aridity is considered the world’s largest single driver behind the degradation of agricultural systems, affecting 40% of Earth’s arable lands

  • Rising aridity has been blamed for a 12% decline in gross domestic product (GDP) recorded for African countries between 1990–2015

  • More than two thirds of all land on the planet (excluding Greenland and Antarctica) is projected to store less water by the end of the century, if greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise even modestly

  • Aridity is considered one of the world’s five most important causes of land degradation (along with land erosion, salinization, organic carbon loss and vegetation degradation)

  • Rising aridity in the Middle East has been linked to the region’s more frequent and larger sand and dust storms

  • Increasing aridity is expected to play a role in larger and more intense wildfires in the climate-altered future—not least because of its impacts on tree deaths in semi-arid forests and the consequent growing availability of dry biomass for burning

  • Rising aridity’s impacts on poverty, water scarcity, land degradation and insufficient food production have been linked to increasing rates of sickness and death globally —especially among children and women

  • Rising aridity and drought play a key role in increasing human migration around the world—particularly in the hyper-arid and arid areas of southern Europe, the Middle East and North Africa and southern Asia.

Report marks a turning point

For years, documenting the rise of aridity proved a challenge, the report states. Its long-term nature and the intricate interplay of factors such as rainfall, evaporation, and plant transpiration made analysis difficult. Early studies produced conflicting results, often muddied by scientific caution.

The new report marks a turning point, leveraging advanced climate models and standardized methodologies to deliver a definitive assessment of global drying trends, confirming the inexorable rise of aridity, while providing critical insights into its underlying drivers and potential future trajectory.

Recommendations

The report offers a comprehensive roadmap for tackling aridity, emphasizing both mitigation and adaptation. Among its recommendations:

  • Strengthen aridity monitoring
    Integrate aridity metrics into existing drought monitoring systems. This approach would enable early detection of changes and help guide interventions before conditions worsen. Platforms like the new Aridity Visual Information Tool provide policymakers and researchers with valuable data, allowing for early warnings and timely interventions. Standardized assessments can enhance global cooperation and inform local adaptation strategies.

  • Improve land use practices
    Incentivizing sustainable land use systems can mitigate the impacts of rising aridity, particularly in vulnerable regions. Innovative, holistic, sustainable approaches to land management are the focus of another new UNCCD SPI report, Sustainable Land Use Systems: The path to collectively achieving Land Degradation Neutrality, available at https://bit.ly/3ZwkLZ3. It considers how land-use at one location affect others elsewhere, makes resilience to climate change or other shocks a priority, and encourages participation and buy-in by Indigenous and local communities as well as all levels of government. Projects like the Great Green Wall—a land restoration initiative spanning Africa—demonstrate the potential for large-scale, holistic efforts to combat aridity and restore ecosystems, while creating jobs and stabilizing economies.

  • Invest in water efficiency
    Technologies such as rainwater harvesting, drip irrigation, and wastewater recycling offer practical solutions for managing scarce water resources in dry regions.

  • Build resilience in vulnerable communities
    Local knowledge, capacity building, social justice and holistic thinking  are vital to resilience. Sustainable land use systems encourage decision makers to apply responsible governance, protect human rights (including secure land access) and ensure accountability and transparency. Capacity-building programmes, financial support, education programmes, climate information services and community-driven initiatives empower those most affected by aridity to adapt to changing conditions. Farmers switching to drought-resistant crops or pastoralists adopting more arid-tolerant livestock exemplify incremental adaptation.

  • Develop international frameworks and cooperation
    The UNCCD’s Land Degradation Neutrality framework provides a model for aligning national policies with international goals, ensuring a unified response to the crisis. National Adaptation Plans must incorporate aridity alongside drought planning to create cohesive strategies that address water and land management challenges. Cross-sectoral collaboration at the global level, facilitated by frameworks like the UNCCD, is essential for scaling solutions.

Comments

“For decades, the world’s scientists have signalled that our growing greenhouse gas emissions are behind global warming. Now, for the first time, a UN scientific body is warning that burning fossil fuels is causing permanent drying across much of the world, too—with potentially catastrophic impacts affecting access to water that could push people and nature even closer to disastrous tipping points.  As large tracts of the world’s land become more arid, the consequences of inaction grow increasingly dire and adaptation is no longer optional—it is imperative.” – UNCCD Chief Scientist Barron Orr

“Without concerted efforts, billions face a future marked by hunger, displacement, and economic decline. Yet, by embracing innovative solutions and fostering global solidarity, humanity can rise to meet this challenge. The question is not whether we have the tools to respond—it is whether we have the will to act.” –  Nichole Barger, Chair, UNCCD Science-Policy Interface

“The report’s clarity is a wake-up call for policymakers: tackling aridity demands more than just science—it requires a diversity of perspectives and knowledge systems. By weaving Indigenous and local knowledge with cutting-edge data, we can craft stronger, smarter strategies to slow aridity’s advance, mitigate its impacts and thrive in a drying world.” – Sergio Vicente-Serrano, co-lead author of the report and an aridity expert with Spain’s Pyrenean Institute of Ecology

“This report underscores the critical need to address aridity as a defining global challenge of our time. By uniting diverse expertise and leveraging breakthrough technologies, we are not just measuring change—we are crafting a roadmap for resilience. Tackling aridity demands a collaborative vision that integrates innovation, adaptive solutions, and a commitment to securing a sustainable future for all.” – Narcisa Pricope, co-lead author, professor of geosciences and associate vice president for research at Mississippi State University, USA.

“The timeliness of this report cannot be overstated.  Rising aridity will reshape the global landscape, challenging traditional ways of life and forcing societies to reimagine their relationship with land and water.  As with climate change and biodiversity loss, addressing aridity requires coordinated international action and an unwavering commitment to sustainable development.” – Andrea Toreti, co-lead author and senior scientist, European Commission’s Joint Research Centre

By the Numbers: 

Key global trends / projections

  • 77.6%: Proportion of Earth’s land that experienced drier climates from 1990–2020 compared to the previous 30 years.

  • 40.6%: Global land mass (excluding Antarctica) classified as drylands, up from 37.5% over the last 30 years.

  • 4.3 million km²: Humid lands transformed into drylands in the last three decades, an area one-third larger than India

  • 40%: Global arable land affected by aridity—the leading driver of agricultural degradation.

  • 30.9%: Global population living in drylands in 2020, up from 22.5% in 1990

  • 2.3 billion: People living in drylands in 2020, a doubling from 1990, projected to more than double again by 2100 under a worst-case climate change scenario.

  • 1.35 billion: Dryland inhabitants in Asia—more than half the global total.

  • 620 million: Dryland inhabitants in Africa—nearly half of the continent’s population.

  • 9.1%: Portion of Earth’s land classified as hyperarid, including the Atacama (Chile), Sahara (Africa), Namib (Africa), and Gobi (China/Mongolia) deserts.

  • 23%: Increase in global land at “moderate” to “very high” desertification risk by 2100 under the worst-case emissions scenario

    • +8% at “very high” risk

    • +5% at “high” risk

    • +10% at “moderate” risk

Environmental degradation

  • 5: Key drivers of land degradation: Rising aridity, land erosion, salinization, organic carbon loss, and vegetation degradation

  • 20%: Global land at risk of abrupt ecosystem transformations by 2100 due to rising aridity

  • 55%: Species (mammals, reptiles, fish, amphibians, and birds) at risk of habitat loss from aridity. Hotspots: (Arid regions): West Africa, Western Australia, Iberian Peninsula; (Humid regions): Southern Mexico, northern Amazon rainforest

Economics

  • 12%: African GDP decline attributed to aridity, 1990–2015

  • 16% / 6.7%: Projected GDP losses in Africa / Asia by 2079 under a moderate emissions scenario

  • 20M tons maize, 21M tons wheat, 19M tons rice: Expected losses in global crop yields by 2040 due to expanding aridity

  • 50%: Projected drop in maize yields in Kenya by 2050 under a high emissions scenario

Water 

  • 90%: Rainfall in drylands that evaporates back into the atmosphere, leaving 10% for plant growth

  • 67%: Global land expected to store less water by 2100, even under moderate emission scenarios

  • 75%: Decline in water availability in the Middle East and North Africa since the 1950s

  • 40%: Predicted Andean runoff decline by 2100 under a high emissions scenario, threatening water supplies in South America

Health

  • 55%: Increase in severe child stunting in sub-Saharan Africa under a medium emissions scenario due to combined effects of aridity and climate warming

  • Up to 12.5%: Estimated rise in mortality risks during sand and dust storms in China, 2013–2018

  • 57% / 38%: Increases in fine and coarse atmospheric dust levels, respectively, in the southwestern U.S. by 2100 under worst case climate scenarios

  • 220%: Projected increase in premature deaths due to airborne dust in the southwestern United States by 2100 under the high-emissions scenario

  • 160%: Expected rise in hospitalizations linked to airborne dust in the same region

Wildfires and forests

  • 74%: Expected increase in wildfire-burned areas in California by 2100 under high emission scenarios

  • 40: Additional annual high fire danger days in Greece by 2100 compared to late 20th century levels

Notes to editors:

Aridity versus drought

Highly arid regions are places in which a persistent, long-term climatic condition lacks available moisture to support most forms of life and atmospheric evaporative demand significantly exceeds rainfall.

Drought, on the other hand, is an anomalous, shorter-term period of water shortage affecting ecosystems and people and often attributed to low precipitation, high temperatures, low air humidity and/or anomalies in wind.

While drought is part of natural climate variability and can occur in almost any climatic regime, aridity is a stable condition for which changes occur over extremely long-time scales under significant forcing.

Media contacts: press@unccd.int

Fragkiska Megaloudi, +30 6945547877 (WhatsApp) fmegaloudi@unccd.int

Gloria Pallares, +34 606 93 1460 gpallares@unccd.int

Terry Collins, +1-416-878-8712 tc@tca.tc

Authors and other experts are available for advance interviews.

The full report, The Global Threat of Drying Lands: Regional and global aridity trends and future projections, is available for media preview at https://www.unccd.int/resources/reports/global-threat-drying-lands-regional-and-global-aridity-trends-and-future

Original Source: unccd.int

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