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Food inflation: The math doesn’t add up without factoring in corporate power

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Large farmers’ protests broke out in at least 65 countries over the past year. From India to Kenya through Colombia and France, desperation has hit a breaking point. Farmers warn that without better prices and more protection, their future is at risk. Peasant movements like La Via Campesina, for over three decades now, have denounced the World Trade Organisation and the growing number of bilateral free trade agreements for destroying their livelihoods.

However, these protests unfold against the backdrop of record-high global food prices. The prices spiked first during the pandemic and then again at the start of the war in Ukraine hitting an all-time high in 2022. Food prices have been rising faster than other products: if the global general consumer price index (CPI) doubled between 2021 and 2022, the food CPI inflation almost tripled. According to the World Food Organisation (FAO) food price index, even if international prices have moderated in 2023, they are still higher than in 2019 (see Graph 1). And all indications are that this is a crisis of prices, and not a food shortage at the global level. For the past 20 years, world grain production has exceeded available stocks.

The impact of these food price increases on millions of people, especially the poor, is devastating. In 2022, 9.2% of the world’s population was chronically hungry, an increase of 122 million people since 2019.

But, as this year’s farmers’ protests make clear, the increase in food prices is not going into their pockets. So, who is benefiting from these food price rises?

Volatility by design

The FAO and corporate executives have attributed recent food price increases to disruptive supply chains for oil, gas, fertilisers and staple goods. This is a half truth, and thus deceptive. They don’t mention how the current structure of the food system encourages and amplifies such disruptions.

For decades, the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have promoted structural adjustment policies, and green revolution technologies (hybrid seeds + chemical pesticides and fertilisers) across the world. We now have a global food system designed around the production of a small number of agricultural commodities (wheat, rice, maize, soybeans, palm oil) in a few areas of the world totally devoted to the massive industrial production of monocultures dependent on the supply of inputs, and concentrated in the hands of a few companies. Any disruptions within this global system, be it war or drought, can have major impacts on people’s access to food.

This is particularly acute in countries of the global South that are now highly dependent on food imports because of policies imposed on them through multilateral banks and free trade agreements. Moreover, we are entering a period of intense climate crisis, water crisis, geopolitical tensions, and declining crop yield gains that are set to generate more frequent and more severe disruptions.

For some, however, this volatility is an opportunity. Because of deliberate policies implemented since the 1980s (see box), there is today a large and growing part of the financial sector that profits from shifts in food prices using what are called “derivatives”. In theory, the use of these instruments helps buyers and sellers to lock in prices and protect themselves against the risk of price fluctuations. The most common and important of these instruments are futures contracts, which are agreements to buy or sell agricultural commodities at a specified future date. In futures markets, it is not the agricultural product itself that is traded, but the contract. The price of the contract changes according to supply and demand. But price variations on the futures markets have a direct influence on price fluctuation of the goods to which the futures contract relate. For example, if the price of a wheat futures contract rises, this indicates that the estimated future price of wheat is high. Consequently, the real current price of wheat rises. With increased activity in the financial futures markets, food trading has come to be referenced to futures prices. In a vicious circle, the volatility of food prices attracts more speculative money into the commodity futures market. This, in turn, amplifies the volatility of the futures markets and pushes up or down real food prices.

The price volatility experienced during the 2007 – 2008 food price crisis was partly a result of a surge in financial speculation. Similarly, when the war in Ukraine began, investments in commodity futures and commodity-linked funds rocketed. Speculative positions in the Paris wheat market increased from 35 million euros in January 2021 to 1 billion euros in March 2022. A report by IPES-Food found that the price of wheat on futures markets rose 54% in nine days, and the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission noted that volatility was 20% higher than normal. While this drove price increases that penalised consumers, hedge funds and pension funds speculating on food markets made huge profits.
The world’s agricultural trading companies have also benefited massively from this situation, including through their participation in financial markets. In 2022, profits achieved by the top five firms in this sector doubled and even tripled compared to the period 2016 – 2020. A report by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development found that corporate profits of global food traders “appear to be strongly linked to periods of excessive speculation in commodity markets and to the growth of shadow banking – an unregulated financial sector that operates outside traditional banking institutions”.

They have some important advantages over purely financial players. For one, as ‘commercial actors’ they are not subject to the same restrictions or regulations of financial actors on commodity trading markets. Also, because of their global presence they have the most in-depth and up-to-date information about the availability of products and are the first to know about poor harvests or bumper crops. A study by SOMO found that the largest agricultural commodity trading companies ADM, Bunge, Cargill, COFCO International and Louis Dreyfus (usually referred to as “ABCCD”) control 73% of the global grain and oilseed trade as well as a combined 1 million hectares of farmland.

A perverse and well prepared alignment of the stars in the 1980s

Three parallel developments in the 1980s were key to financialising the global food system. First, the liberalisation of agricultural markets was promoted by the World Bank and other international agencies. Until then, governments in different regions had adopted policies to protect farmers from production risks. Second, financial markets were deregulated in the United States and investment banks and commodity trading firms began marketing index funds that tracked the prices of various commodities. In addition, large institutional investors (such as pension funds) sought to diversify their investments. To hedge their risks, they increased their investments in commodity derivatives and physical assets. As a result, a growing number of financial players began to speculate on food prices.

Third, like other companies, agribusiness companies experienced a dramatic shift in ownership with the entry of large asset management firms. CEO salaries became linked to the value of shares, creating a strong incentive to restructure companies in ways that generated more profit for shareholders. To this end, mergers and acquisitions multiplied, laying the foundations for today’s deep corporate concentration in the agri-food sector.

Source: Jennifer Clapp and S. Ryan Isakson, “Speculative Harvests: Financialization, Food, and Agriculture”, Agrarian Change & Peasant Studies, 2021.

Price manipulation and sellers’ inflation

Financial markets are not the only space where big agribusiness and food companies have an impact on food prices. A growing number of voices, such as the economist Isabella Weber, point to the monopoly power of corporations as a major factor in recent price inflation, including with food. What they call “sellers’ inflation” happens in contexts of supply-chain bottlenecks and cost shocks. When price hikes in upstream sectors (such as the gas needed for fertilisers) spread along the supply chain, companies in downstream sectors pass on cost increases to protect margins and even take the opportunity to increase margins. They can raise prices knowing that all their competitors will do the same.

Such strategies are only possible in contexts where a handful of companies have the power to set prices, as is the case in the food and agriculture sector. For example, just four companies, Bayer, Corteva, Syngenta and BASF control half of the seed market and 75% of the global agrochemicals market. Since 2018, their profits have nearly doubled. On the fertilisers side, the global market is controlled by a small number of companies. Four of them control a third of all nitrogen fertiliser production. From 2018 to 2022, the profits of the top 9 fertiliser corporations more than tripled, as they increased prices far beyond the production costs. Another example can be found in the world’s second largest meat processor, Tyson. The company more than doubled its margins and profits at the end of 2021. This was due to price increases it initiated and then continued to raise to protect margins against cost pressures from grain prices. A similar strategy was followed by large branders as Nestlé, Unilever and Mondelez who increased prices and ended by recording high profits in 2022.

This combination of monopoly power and unregulated activity in financial markets allows agricultural commodity traders, big agribusiness and food companies to make huge profits from food price rises.

Countering corporate power in food systems

The big culprit when it comes to today’s high food prices for consumers and low prices for farmers is corporate power. The climate crisis will only make this situation worse, unless urgent actions are taken to dismantle corporate power and shift to more localised food systems, based on diversified food production and catered to people’s food needs. The struggle against free trade agreements, at the forefront of many of today’s farmers’ protests, is therefore critical.

At the same time, actions are needed to reign in the power of those actors in the casino economy who are amplifying food price volatility and increases. When it comes to financial speculation, an important driver in food price volatility, regulations need to be tightened. And, to tackle the so-called “sellers’ inflation”, we need measures to prevent profiteering, which could include taxes on windfall profits anti-trust measures, and, more importantly public controls over food prices and programmes that ensure a fair, equitable and secure distribution of nutritious foods to everyone.

Source: grain.org

  • TXJCX1 Jason Kelly, a trader in the Wheat Options pit at the CME Group throws up his arms as traders toss confetti at the closing bell for the year on December 31, 2009 in Chicago. UPI/Brian Kersey

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“We are facing increased violent land dispossessions and climate injustices” – African women.

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By the Witness Radio Team

 

Stories of displacement, land loss, and resilience filled the room as 45 women from six African countries gathered for the East Africa Women’s Land and Climate Justice Convergence in Nairobi, organized to raise awareness and explore resistance strategies against land dispossession and climate injustice.

 

Representing communities from Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Zimbabwe, and South Africa, the women came together not only to learn but also to speak, listen, heal, and feel the weight of their struggles, resisting destructive extractive projects and reclaiming what belongs to them, despite the immense impacts they have endured.

 

Africa is often described as having vast unused or underutilized land. This narrative has attracted investors, especially from the Global North, into large-scale industrial agriculture and other land-based investments. However, a 2025 report by the Alliance for Food Sovereignty in Africa (AFSA), PLAAS, and the Institute for Agriculture and Trade Policy challenged this claim, showing that such narratives have fueled large-scale land grabs, ecological destruction, and community dispossession across the continent.

 

In Uganda, the land eviction crisis has intensified due to increasing land-based investments that have dispossessed local communities with impunity, with oil development activities among them. According to human rights groups, this has led to more than 100,000 people in Uganda and Tanzania permanently losing their land to make way for the pipeline and related projects.

 

Jenniffer Kiiza, a resident of Hoima, is among those whose land was taken for oil development.

 

“The project has had severe negative impacts, especially on vulnerable groups like women,” she said, highlighting how delayed compensation, gender-based violence, and food insecurity disproportionately affect women and their families.

 

“We face dispossession, and sadly, we are paid very little money, which comes late and is no longer enough to buy land elsewhere. Hunger and malnutrition in adults and babies have increased, and this is affecting us as women and our families.” Kiiza added.

 

Kiiza has continued to speak out despite growing repression against dissent, advocating for justice for her community, especially women, even as opposing such mega-projects comes at a high cost.

 

“These developments have caused hunger, increased gender-based violence, family breakdowns, school dropouts, and early marriages. There has also been a rise in prostitution, as women struggle to provide for their children after losing their land.” She added.

 

Meanwhile, in Uganda alone, the Uganda Police’s Annual Crimes Report, 2025, released early April, recorded 663 cases of land fraud, an indicator of the country’s escalating land crisis.

 

In Zimbabwe’s Midlands province, particularly in Shurugwi, communities are facing similar challenges linked to mining activities, including land dispossession and environmental harm.

Jeyche Belenia, a women’s rights defender from a community affected by Unki Mine, shared her experience during the convergence.

 

“We are facing many challenges from the miners. Chinese investors are coming into our area and evicting us. They tell us to leave, and if we refuse, they come with bulldozers and destroy everything, including our homes. We are left with no shelter and nowhere to go,” she said.

She added that abandoned open pits left by mining companies have become deadly hazards.

 

“When it rains, the pits fill with water. Our livestock fall into them, and even our children have fallen in. We are losing both animals and lives, and the danger is ever-present,” She added.

 

Communities in Zimbabwe also report water pollution from mining activities, which threatens their health and livelihoods. “The water we use is our source of livelihood, serving domestic needs, drinking, and our animals. However, after consuming it, we have experienced illnesses like cholera, and pregnant women face severe complications,” she added.

 

Her revelations echo concerns raised at the 2025 Zimbabwe Alternative Mining Indaba (ZAMI). The 14th edition of the Indaba, convened by the Zimbabwe Environmental Law Organization (ZELO) and partners in September 2025, highlighted multiple challenges within a sector that contributes about 12% to 13.3% of the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

 

In its December 2025 communiqué, ZAMI noted that unsustainable resource extraction is driving widespread environmental damage, including water pollution, habitat loss, soil degradation, and deforestation.

 

It further pointed to displacement, inadequate compensation, and the absence of Free, Prior, and Informed Consent (FPIC), particularly affecting marginalized communities whose exclusion from governance processes has resulted in violence, disempowerment, and the entrenchment of poverty in resource-rich areas, worsened by weak oversight that has enabled environmental violations and illicit financial flows.

 

Amid these challenges affecting their communities, the women shared, the convergence concluded with a renewed sense of solidarity, forming a network of resilient women committed to defending Africa’s commons—land, forests, water, and cultural systems—now under increasing threat.

 

According to the organizers, the meeting was particularly significant in creating a platform for women to share lived realities that are often excluded from formal land governance discussions. Participants exchanged insights on the challenges they face and identified collective strategies to strengthen their land rights.

 

The convergence brought together women to reflect on their experiences with customary and communal land tenure systems. We will continue to build on this knowledge and strengthen solidarity plans at both national and regional levels with the women,” WoMin’s Sizaltina Cutaia told Witness Radio.

 

Participants described the gathering as a transformative learning space that not only exposed shared struggles but also equipped them with the skills and knowledge to defend their rights collectively.

 

“And a message I can give to a woman in the struggle is to keep fighting for her goal. She should not give up, but continue until she achieves what she wants. This cuts across countries and brings us together through networking. When we unite as women, we realize we share one goal—as mothers in our communities and countries—because land is our motherland,” said Sara Possass from the Kogiya Community.

 

Despite powerful companies taking over their land, women defenders say they are determined to continue resisting and reclaim what is rightfully theirs.

 

“We are fighting back so that we can reclaim our natural resources, including land and water. Many women are facing serious health challenges, including stress and stroke, as a result of these struggles. But we are not going back. We are fighting to reclaim our commons through demonstrations, cultural resistance, and petitions led by marginalized communities.” Jeyche mentioned.

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Kassanda businessmen accused of a second attempt to grab an 86-year-old farmer’s land despite court orders.

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Bacumikire’s son stands on their land in Kassanda District, allegedly fenced off by businessmen in a renewed attempt to grab the entire land.

By the Witness Radio team.

Kassanda-Uganda. Three businessmen in Kassanda District are accused of forcefully taking over land belonging to an 86-year-old resident of Kagasa village, Kiteredde Sub-county, Kassanda District, in what appears to be a second attempt to grab his entire land.

The accused, Mwesigye George, Busesire Geoffrey, and Eric Karamba Saizi, allegedly fenced off land belonging to Mr. Fred Bacumikire, depriving him of access to his farmland and grazing areas, which are his primary source of livelihood.

According to the family, this is not the first time the group has targeted the older man’s land. In 2022, two of the accused, Busesire Geoffrey and Eric Karamba Saizi, allegedly seized the entire land and wanted to evict Mr. Bacumikire, allocating themselves approximately 280 acres (113.312 ha) of Bacumikire’s land. The encroachment significantly reduced his access to the property and triggered a legal battle in which he sought full access to the property.

“They entered the whole land of about 640 acres (258.99 ha) forcefully and wanted to evict him, leaving him with only two acres,” said Mr. Mwebesa Richard, Bacumikire’s lawyer.

According to family members who spoke to Witness Radio, Mr. Bacumikire purchased the

land in 1995 from Samuel Ssekamwa under a running lease, covering approximately 640 acres. Before the sale, Ssekamwa had acquired the land from the original owner in 1972 under a 99-year lease.

“We have lived on this land since 1995, when Mzee bought it peacefully from Mr. Ssekamwa. But when Busesire and his accomplices surfaced, everything changed, and peace was lost,” Mr. Kazuga Lazarus, the eldest son of Bacumikire, said.

Kazuga added that the disputed land is located in Block 427, Plot 59, Kagasa Village, and measures approximately 640 acres.

In response to the land grab, Bacumikire, through his lawyer, filed a case at the Mubende High Court, seeking protection against eviction. The court issued an order restraining the defendants from evicting him, but the current enforceability of this order remains unclear, raising questions about legal protection for landowners.

“We went to court, I explained to the court, and they gave us an administrative order, ordering them not to evict Mr. Bacumikire.” His lawyer further added.

The lawyer says that the situation reportedly changed when a new judge temporarily took over the matter. Justice Karemani, who was holding brief for another judge, set aside the earlier court order under circumstances that the legal team questions.

According to Mr. Mwebesa, this development allowed the defendants to renew their attempts to evict the plaintiff, having already gained physical possession of 280 acres of the older man’s land. At the time, Mwesigye George owned approximately 180 acres, while Busesire Geoffrey owned about 100 acres.

Bacumikire’s legal team then appealed to the Court of Appeal in Kampala to restrain the defendants from violating the previous order.

“When the order was violated, I ran to the Court of Appeal specifically to challenge the setting aside of that order and to have it reinstated. So, when we went to the Court of Appeal, that’s now, we consented that Mr. Bacumikire and the defendants must remain on the land.” The lawyer further revealed

According to Court documents seen by Witness Radio, the deputy registrar of the Court of Appeal, Jane Mugala, issued a consent order on 3rd October 2024 ordering Mwesigye George (1st respondent) to retain physical possession of 180 acres of the land, and Busesire Geofrey (2nd respondent) to retain approximately 100 acres in the area. And that the remaining part of the land was to be left to Bacumikire. The court also ordered the complainant (Bacumikire) to be given reasonable access to a water point at Lake Wamala for his cattle.

Despite this agreement, the family now accuses the same individuals- Mwesigye George, Busesire Geoffrey, and Eric Karamba Saizi- of returning to seize the remaining land, marking what they have described as a second land grab attempt.

“They have come back again and fenced off all the land we were left with, even before the High Court case is concluded,” said Kazuga Lazarus, Bacumikire’s son, in an interview with Witness Radio, emphasizing the ongoing distress and urging authorities to intervene in what he described as an abuse of power and impunity.

This latest development, according to the family, has cut the older man and his family off from his land and left his household in distress, with reports that several of his cattle have died.

“They have fenced off the entire land, blocked access to water sources, and denied us the use of our own property. They are acting above the law, evicting us despite valid court orders and clear proof of ownership. This is land my father bought in 1995,” he said, underscoring the importance of legal protections for landowners.

He added that the situation has worsened, with four cattle already dead. He said the animals have been left without water and grazing land for a long time, a situation he blames on the alleged land grabbers.

The chairperson of Lwamugenyi village, Jamil Kibuuka, affirms that the consent order clearly states that Mwesigye and Busesire are to remain on part of the land. At the same time, the rest is used by Bacumikire. He, however, wonders why the accused abandoned this order and chose to violate it instead.

Tamale Elidadi, a resident of Kagasa village, urged authorities and stakeholders to intervene and support Bacumikire’s pursuit of justice.

“He is an old man, and these grabbers are using money and influence to buy off whoever

supports Bacumikire. He needs to be supported because his cattle are perishing due to inadequate water and pasture, yet he acquired all the land with his hard-earned money.” Mr. Tamale added.

Should the land grab succeed, the older man will be evicted from his land and left with no place to call home, highlighting the severe consequences of the ongoing violations for his family and community.

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East African women unite and meet in Nairobi to develop strategies to protect communal tenure systems and collectively resist false climate solutions.

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By the Witness Radio team.

Women in East Africa are on the front lines of land and climate struggles against harmful extractive investments, land grabs, and land giveaways that have not only damaged their livelihoods but also continued to harm the environment.

In Tanzania’s Manyara and Arusha regions, Maasai pastoralists face environmental disasters and land conflicts driven by encroachment and land degradation.

Paulina Peter, a Community Development Officer with the KINNAPA Development Program in Kiteto District, Tanzania, has witnessed these changes firsthand.

“Deforestation for agriculture is a major challenge. Some pastoralists are diversifying into crop farming, which affects environmental conservation. At the same time, population growth and land degradation are driving migration into pastoralist areas.” She explains, in an interview with Witness Radio

These pressures are not only ecological, but they are also fueling conflict. According to Paulina, disputes have emerged between local communities and incoming agriculturalists seeking access to community lands, sometimes escalating into legal battles.

To address these challenges, KINNAPA is supporting pastoralist communities through land rights awareness, environmental education, and the development of village land use plans. These initiatives, particularly the formalization of shared rangelands, have helped reduce conflict and promote more sustainable land use.

While Tanzanian communities struggle with gradual encroachment, the story of the Mosopisyek of Benet Indigenous community in Eastern Uganda reflects a more abrupt and violent history of land loss, which has had an overwhelming impact on thousands of local communities for decades.

The Benet Indigenous community in Uganda lost its ancestral land in 1993 when it was designated as a national park, causing decades of displacement and hardship.

“In 1993, the government evicted hundreds of people without compensation. During the initial giveaway of our land, we were not consulted to give consent,” Chelangat Scovia, a women’s leader of the Mosopisyek of Benet Indigenous community, told Witness Radio, recalling the trauma of forced evictions from their ancestral lands on Mount Elgon.

The government has promised to resettle them, but the affected communities in Sebei still await justice after more than 30 years, underscoring their resilience.

Following the 1993 evictions, thousands were left in temporary settlements without adequate land or support. In 2008, again, the government further displaced more than 170 families and destroyed homes in a violent eviction.

Today, many Benet remain landless, surviving through casual labor or relying on aid, while continuing to face harassment when they attempt to access their ancestral lands for grazing or cultural practices.

Despite these challenges affecting their communities, women like Paulina and Chelangat are not only victims but also inspiring leaders driving efforts to defend and reclaim the commons.

Both are attending the East Africa Women’s Land and Climate Justice Convergence in Nairobi, where grassroots women leaders, activists, and organizations from Uganda, Kenya, and Tanzania have gathered from April 26 to May 1 to confront land dispossession, extractivism, and false climate solutions.

The convergence comes at a critical moment when Africa’s commons—land, forests, water, and cultural systems—are under growing threat. Most land on the continent is held under communal tenure systems that sustain rural populations. However, weak legal protections continue to expose these systems to state control, corporate exploitation, and large-scale land grabs.

While communal systems are vital, they are also shaped by deeply entrenched patriarchal norms. Women, despite being the backbone of food production, often access land through male relatives. This leaves them particularly vulnerable during moments of crisis such as widowhood, divorce, or family disputes.

The convergence seeks to challenge this model by advancing a different vision, one that strengthens, rather than dismantles, the commons while centering women’s leadership.

The convergence aims to build collective strategies to protect communal lands and resist extractive industries and false climate solutions, empowering communities to act together.

“The convergence will also explore the new threats to the commons in the form of mega ‘green’ energy and mining projects, and the false solutions to the climate crisis, such as carbon capture and storage, as well as REDD+, typically involving the capturing and privatization of land, forests, and water bodies. We will also explore the question of climate debt and how it is deeply interlinked with the continued commodification of the commons,” Says Womin in its press release.

Bringing together 35 to 45 participants, primarily women living under communal tenure systems, the convergence includes farmers, fisherfolk, pastoralists, indigenous women, and activists resisting extractive projects. Organized by Womin in partnership with allied organizations, the gathering runs until May 1.

Witness Radio will continue to provide updates on all developments from the convergence.

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