By Witness Radio team.

A leading humanitarian aid group has sounded the alarm over a strengthening El Niño, poised to unleash extreme weather across East Africa and parts of Asia. Millions of vulnerable people now stand on the frontlines, facing mounting threats of floods, disease, food shortages, and shattered livelihoods.

The International Rescue Committee (IRC) warns that the brewing El Niño could unleash severe floods, disease outbreaks, scorching heatwaves, and punishing droughts in the months ahead, threatening countries like Uganda, Kenya, Somalia, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Afghanistan.

The IRC cautions that communities battered by past floods, droughts, displacement, and dwindling aid now stand to endure yet another major climate blow unless swift action is taken.

“We are watching several emergencies converge at once, and the places least equipped to absorb another shock are the ones in the crosshairs. Acting now, before the rain falls, is far cheaper and far more humane than responding after people have lost everything,” said Bob Kitchen, IRC Vice President for Emergencies.

This warning comes as forecasts predict East Africa could be drenched by unusually heavy rains from October to December, heightening the dangers of flooding, landslides, ruined crops, and surging disease outbreaks.

In Uganda, authorities and aid agencies fear that relentless rainfall could wash away hard-won progress made by communities still recovering from earlier climate disasters, such as drought.

The IRC reports that Uganda may swing from parched conditions to a flood-prone final quarter, sparking fresh worries about displacement.

During the previous El Niño cycle, the IRC states that more than 413,000 people in Uganda were affected by climate-related impacts.

Kenya, too, stands on high alert, as forecasts point to persistent El Niño conditions that could unleash torrents of rain, floods, and landslides before the year ends.

“Kenya faces an 80–82% chance of El Niño persisting through 2026, with dry conditions this summer giving way to a high risk of flooding and landslides,” Humanitarian Aid stated in its press conference.

In Somalia, where millions already grapple with drought and humanitarian crises, aid agencies warn that relentless rains could deepen existing hardships. The IRC notes that over 4.8 million Somalis urgently need help, as floods threaten to wipe out crops, taint water supplies, and fuel the spread of diseases like cholera and acute watery diarrhea.

The organization recalls that earlier floods in Somalia wiped out nearly 13,000 tonnes of crops and battered towns and villages, leaving families with even fewer resources to weather another disaster.

Agricultural experts warn that El Niño could plunge East Africa deeper into food insecurity by upending farming, ravaging crops, and driving up production costs.

Because the region depends so heavily on climate-sensitive agriculture, extreme weather can swiftly trigger food shortages and send prices for essentials soaring.

Dr. Joseph W. Glauber, a senior research fellow at the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), previously told Witness Radio that Africa remains highly vulnerable to global shocks affecting food systems, including disruptions in fertilizer supply and rising agricultural input costs.

“Africa is quite vulnerable largely because shipment sizes to Africa tend to be smaller, so the unit costs for energy and other components and fertilizer tend to be a little higher than those from bigger countries,” Dr. Glauber said.

The IRC cautions that although rain is vital for farming, relentless downpours could drown fields, devastate crops, and deal a heavy blow to rural livelihoods.

“If rains destroy agricultural production, communities could face reduced food availability, increased food prices, and greater dependence on humanitarian assistance,” experts warn.

As East Africa braces for deluges, parts of Asia are set to feel El Niño’s impact in very different ways.

The IRC reports that El Niño may bring scant rainfall and soaring temperatures to Pakistan, while the northern mountains face the looming threat of sudden glacier-melt floods.

Bangladesh is already reeling from deadly monsoon disasters, as floods and landslides upend the lives of thousands, including Rohingya refugees in the Cox’s Bazar camps.

“Bangladesh’s monsoon season has already turned deadly this year. Landslides and flooding have killed at least 15 Rohingya refugees living in the Cox’s Bazar camps and displaced more than 10,000 people since the start of July,” the organization added.

El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon sparked by unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific. It disrupts global weather, drenching some regions with rain while parching others with drought and heat.

The International Rescue Committee calls on governments, donors, and aid groups to boost funding for anticipatory action programs, empowering communities to brace for disasters before they strike.

Geneva | Global hunger has declined for the third consecutive year, offering renewed hope that progress against food insecurity is possible. Yet for Uganda and the rest of Africa, the latest United Nations findings are a reminder that the continent continues to carry the heaviest burden of hunger despite improvements in many parts of the world.

The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2026 (SOFI 2026) report, released jointly by five UN agencies, estimates that 645 million people experienced hunger in 2025, down from 659 million in 2024 and 688 million in 2022.

The figures indicate that global efforts to improve food security are beginning to bear fruit, but not fast enough to achieve the Sustainable Development Goal of ending hunger by 2030.

For Uganda, the report presents a mixed picture. While global hunger is declining, Africa has overtaken Asia as the region with the highest number of hungry people. Approximately 309 million Africans experienced hunger in 2025, compared to 292 million in Asia.

One in every five Africans remains undernourished, and more than half of the continent’s population continues to face moderate or severe food insecurity. These findings come at a time when Uganda is striving to transform agriculture from subsistence farming into a commercial, climate-resilient sector.

Agriculture remains the backbone of Uganda’s economy, employing the majority of the population and contributing significantly to export earnings. Yet erratic rainfall, prolonged droughts in some regions, flooding in others, crop pests, high post-harvest losses and fluctuating food prices continue to threaten food security for many households.

The UN report notes that while 2.1 billion people worldwide still experience moderate or severe food insecurity, Africa accounts for the highest share, with 56.6 per cent of its population unable to consistently access sufficient, safe and nutritious food. This means many families are forced to reduce meal sizes, skip meals altogether or settle for less nutritious diets. For Uganda, where rural communities depend heavily on rain-fed agriculture, climate change remains one of the biggest threats to food production.

Recent seasons have demonstrated how prolonged dry spells and unpredictable weather patterns can reduce harvests, increase food prices and place vulnerable households at greater risk of hunger.

The report also highlights another growing concern that resonates with Uganda’s public health priorities: malnutrition is no longer only about hunger. While millions still lack enough food, obesity and poor-quality diets are increasing across the world.

Globally, the prevalence of adult obesity rose from 12.1 per cent in 2012 to 16.2 per cent in 2024. At the same time, nearly 150 million children under five remain stunted due to chronic undernutrition, while only about one-third of children aged between six and 23 months consume sufficiently diverse diets.

Uganda has made progress in reducing child stunting over the past decade, but nutrition experts continue to warn that poor infant feeding practices, limited dietary diversity and food insecurity remain major contributors to child malnutrition. The challenge is compounded by rising food costs, making nutritious foods such as fruits, vegetables, dairy products and animal proteins increasingly difficult for many households to afford.

The report reveals that the average global cost of a healthy diet has risen sharply to 4.28 purchasing power parity dollars per person per day in 2025, compared to 2.94 dollars in 2017. Although fewer people globally are unable to afford healthy diets than four years ago, Africa is moving in the opposite direction.

More than two-thirds of Africans, 66.6 per cent of the population, could not afford a healthy diet in 2025. This is more than double the proportion recorded in Asia and Latin America.

For Uganda, where inflation in food prices periodically affects household purchasing power, the findings reinforce the importance of investing across the agricultural value chain rather than focusing solely on increasing production. According to the report, between 70 and 75 per cent of the price consumers pay for food is determined after it leaves the farm, through transport, storage, processing, wholesale and retail costs.

This suggests that investments in rural roads, irrigation, cold storage facilities, food processing, market infrastructure and efficient transport systems could significantly reduce food costs while increasing farmers’ incomes.

Reducing post-harvest losses, estimated to claim a substantial share of agricultural produce in Uganda each year, would also improve food availability without requiring additional land for cultivation. The report further warns that progress made globally could easily be reversed.

Ongoing conflict in the Middle East, rising energy and fertiliser prices, declining humanitarian funding and increasingly frequent climate shocks all threaten future food security. Even under optimistic projections, between 510 million and 520 million people could still be hungry by 2030, well above the level required to meet the global Zero Hunger target.

For Uganda, these global developments matter because the country remains connected to international food, fuel and fertiliser markets. Higher import costs translate into more expensive agricultural inputs and higher food prices, placing additional pressure on both farmers and consumers.

The UN agencies argue that reducing the cost of healthy diets will require targeted investments in agriculture, stronger food value chains, research and innovation, improved irrigation, climate-smart farming practices, better trade policies and social protection programmes that support vulnerable households.

Ultimately, the report offers both hope and caution. It demonstrates that hunger can be reduced through sustained investment and sound policies, but it also makes clear that progress is uneven and fragile.

Strengthening agricultural resilience, improving nutrition, expanding food processing and ensuring affordable access to healthy diets will be essential for countries in Sub-Saharan Africa in order to contribute meaningfully to the global ambition of ending hunger by 2030.

As the report concludes, a world where healthy food is affordable and accessible to everyone remains within reach, but only if governments, development partners, the private sector and communities work together to build food systems that are more resilient, inclusive and sustainable.

Source: independent.co.ug

By the Witness Radio team.

Conflicts far from the world’s farms are reshaping how food is produced, traded, and accessed. Rising energy costs, fertilizer disruptions, and threatened trade routes expose the fragility of global food systems, increasing production costs and leaving millions vulnerable to hunger.

The global food crisis is deepening as multiple shocks put increasing pressure on food systems worldwide. According to the World Food Program (WFP), hundreds of millions of people face crisis-level hunger, with conflict, climate change, economic instability, and displacement driving food insecurity. Countries already struggling with poverty and fragile economies remain the hardest hit.

More than 295 million people across 53 countries and territories faced acute hunger in 2024, according to the Global Report on Food Crises. This was an increase of nearly 14 million compared with 2023, driven mainly by conflict, economic shocks, climate extremes, and displacement.

The war in Ukraine showed how conflict in one region can disrupt food supplies worldwide. Ukraine is one of the world’s leading exporters of wheat, maize, and sunflower oil, while Russia remains a major supplier of fertilizers and agricultural inputs. Disruption of Black Sea trade routes and uncertainty over exports triggered sharp increases in food and fertilizer prices, affecting farmers and consumers thousands of kilometers away.

Although global grain markets have gradually stabilized since the initial shock, experts say the structural vulnerabilities exposed by war remain unresolved. Many countries still rely heavily on a handful of exporters for staple foods and farm inputs, leaving them exposed whenever geopolitical tensions escalate.

Similar concerns are emerging from the Middle East. Disruptions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s busiest shipping corridors, have raised fears over global supplies of oil, natural gas, and fertilizers. Because modern agriculture depends heavily on fuel and fertilizer, a prolonged interruption in these supplies has immediate consequences for food production.

During a ministerial meeting of the MED 9++ countries on “Supporting Food Security and Access to Fertilizers”, United Nations Director-General of the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Q.U. Dongyu warned that the current crisis extends far beyond geopolitics, affecting food production, trade, agricultural inputs, and access to food worldwide.

“This is not only a geopolitical crisis, but also a disruption at the core of the global agrifood system,” he said.

He explained that agriculture follows fixed seasonal calendars and that fertilizers must be applied at precise stages of crop development.

“Agriculture operates on a crop calendar that cannot be postponed. Fertilizers must be applied at specific moments in the crop cycle. If they do not arrive on time, yields are reduced, regardless of what happens later.” He added.

According to QU Dongyu, even delays of a few weeks could reduce harvests, tighten food supplies through 2026 and 2027, and raise food prices worldwide, particularly in import-dependent countries across Africa and Asia.

Agricultural economist Dr. Joseph Glauber, a senior research fellow at the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and former Chief Economist at the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), says today’s food crisis is increasingly driven by rising production costs rather than shortages alone.

In an interview with Witness Radio, Dr. Glauber said energy prices are now one of the biggest factors pushing up food costs.

“The biggest link has been through energy. Higher energy prices mean higher shipping, transport, and processing costs. Consumers don’t eat wheat; they eat bread and processed foods that require energy throughout the production chain,” he added.

Dr. Glauber noted that while global prices for crops such as wheat and maize have risen only modestly, fertilizer and energy costs have risen much faster, leaving many farmers with shrinking profit margins.

“For farmers, profits have declined because input costs have risen faster than the prices they receive for their produce,” he said.

According to Dr. Glauber, African countries face unique challenges because they depend heavily on imported fertilizers and face higher transport costs than larger importing economies.

“Africa is quite vulnerable because shipment sizes tend to be smaller and transport costs are relatively higher,” he explained.

He noted that although fertilizer use varies significantly between African countries, higher prices are already putting enormous pressure on farmers across the continent.

Beyond these immediate impacts of war, experts say the world faces a broader systemic crisis. The Club of Rome has also warned that shocks from the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine, to disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz and increasing geopolitical instability, have exposed profound weaknesses in global food systems.

The organization says food security can no longer be viewed apart from peace, climate resilience, and energy security. Governments should instead pursue integrated approaches that strengthen local food production and reduce dependence on vulnerable international supply chains.

Experts are calling for an end to armed conflicts that threaten food production, investment in regenerative agriculture, stronger land rights for smallholder farmers, diversification of food crops beyond the world’s heavy dependence on wheat, maize, rice, and soybeans, expanded regional trade, and a faster transition away from fossil fuel-dependent agriculture.

Hunter Lovins, President of Natural Capitalism Solutions and a member of the Club of Rome, says the world already knows many needed solutions.

“This is not a warning about some distant future. It is a warning about next year’s harvest. We know what works. What we lack is not solutions, but the political will to invest in them before the crisis, rather than after,” she said.