By Witness Radio team.
A leading humanitarian aid group has sounded the alarm over a strengthening El Niño, poised to unleash extreme weather across East Africa and parts of Asia. Millions of vulnerable people now stand on the frontlines, facing mounting threats of floods, disease, food shortages, and shattered livelihoods.
The International Rescue Committee (IRC) warns that the brewing El Niño could unleash severe floods, disease outbreaks, scorching heatwaves, and punishing droughts in the months ahead, threatening countries like Uganda, Kenya, Somalia, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Afghanistan.
The IRC cautions that communities battered by past floods, droughts, displacement, and dwindling aid now stand to endure yet another major climate blow unless swift action is taken.
“We are watching several emergencies converge at once, and the places least equipped to absorb another shock are the ones in the crosshairs. Acting now, before the rain falls, is far cheaper and far more humane than responding after people have lost everything,” said Bob Kitchen, IRC Vice President for Emergencies.
This warning comes as forecasts predict East Africa could be drenched by unusually heavy rains from October to December, heightening the dangers of flooding, landslides, ruined crops, and surging disease outbreaks.
In Uganda, authorities and aid agencies fear that relentless rainfall could wash away hard-won progress made by communities still recovering from earlier climate disasters, such as drought.
The IRC reports that Uganda may swing from parched conditions to a flood-prone final quarter, sparking fresh worries about displacement.
During the previous El Niño cycle, the IRC states that more than 413,000 people in Uganda were affected by climate-related impacts.
Kenya, too, stands on high alert, as forecasts point to persistent El Niño conditions that could unleash torrents of rain, floods, and landslides before the year ends.
“Kenya faces an 80–82% chance of El Niño persisting through 2026, with dry conditions this summer giving way to a high risk of flooding and landslides,” Humanitarian Aid stated in its press conference.
In Somalia, where millions already grapple with drought and humanitarian crises, aid agencies warn that relentless rains could deepen existing hardships. The IRC notes that over 4.8 million Somalis urgently need help, as floods threaten to wipe out crops, taint water supplies, and fuel the spread of diseases like cholera and acute watery diarrhea.
The organization recalls that earlier floods in Somalia wiped out nearly 13,000 tonnes of crops and battered towns and villages, leaving families with even fewer resources to weather another disaster.
Agricultural experts warn that El Niño could plunge East Africa deeper into food insecurity by upending farming, ravaging crops, and driving up production costs.
Because the region depends so heavily on climate-sensitive agriculture, extreme weather can swiftly trigger food shortages and send prices for essentials soaring.
Dr. Joseph W. Glauber, a senior research fellow at the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), previously told Witness Radio that Africa remains highly vulnerable to global shocks affecting food systems, including disruptions in fertilizer supply and rising agricultural input costs.
“Africa is quite vulnerable largely because shipment sizes to Africa tend to be smaller, so the unit costs for energy and other components and fertilizer tend to be a little higher than those from bigger countries,” Dr. Glauber said.
The IRC cautions that although rain is vital for farming, relentless downpours could drown fields, devastate crops, and deal a heavy blow to rural livelihoods.
“If rains destroy agricultural production, communities could face reduced food availability, increased food prices, and greater dependence on humanitarian assistance,” experts warn.
As East Africa braces for deluges, parts of Asia are set to feel El Niño’s impact in very different ways.
The IRC reports that El Niño may bring scant rainfall and soaring temperatures to Pakistan, while the northern mountains face the looming threat of sudden glacier-melt floods.
Bangladesh is already reeling from deadly monsoon disasters, as floods and landslides upend the lives of thousands, including Rohingya refugees in the Cox’s Bazar camps.
“Bangladesh’s monsoon season has already turned deadly this year. Landslides and flooding have killed at least 15 Rohingya refugees living in the Cox’s Bazar camps and displaced more than 10,000 people since the start of July,” the organization added.
El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon sparked by unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific. It disrupts global weather, drenching some regions with rain while parching others with drought and heat.
The International Rescue Committee calls on governments, donors, and aid groups to boost funding for anticipatory action programs, empowering communities to brace for disasters before they strike.
